The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil- ity of Smooth Support Vector Machines (SSVM), and investigate how important factors such as selection of appropriate accounting ratios (predictors), length of training period and structure of the training sample in°uence the precision of prediction. Furthermore we show that oversampling can be employed to gear the tradeo® between error types. Finally, we illustrate graphically how di®erent variants of SSVM can be used jointly to support the decision task of loan o±cers.Insolvency Prognosis, SVMs, Statistical Learning Theory, Non-parametric Classification models, local time-homogeneity

The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth Support Vector Machines (SSVM), and investigate how important factors such as selection of appropriate accounting ratios (predictors), length of training period and structure of the training sample influence the precision of prediction. Furthermore we showthat oversampling can be employed to gear the tradeoff between error types. Finally, we illustrate graphically how different variants of SSVM can be used jointly to support the decision task of loan officers.Insolvency Prognosis, SVMs, Statistical Learning Theory, Non-parametric Classification

Diffusion Adaptation Strategies for Distributed Estimation over Gaussian Markov Random Fields

The aim of this paper is to propose diffusion strategies for distributed estimation over adaptive networks, assuming the presence of spatially correlated measurements distributed according to a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model. The proposed methods incorporate prior information about the statistical dependency among observations, while at the same time processing data in real-time and in a fully decentralized manner. A detailed mean-square analysis is carried out in order to prove stability and evaluate the steady-state performance of the proposed strategies. Finally, we also illustrate how the proposed techniques can be easily extended in order to incorporate thresholding operators for sparsity recovery applications. Numerical results show the potential advantages of using such techniques for distributed learning in adaptive networks deployed over GMRF.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1206.309