Effects of behavioral response and vaccination policy on epidemic spreading - an approach based on evolutionary-game dynamics

date of Acceptance: 23/06/2014 This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11331009, 11135001, 11105025). Y.-C.L. was supported by AFOSR under Grant No. FA9550-10-1-0083.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Incidence of pregnancy among women accessing antiretroviral therapy in urban Malawi: a retrospective cohort study.

Although previous studies investigated pregnancy rates among women on antiretroviral therapy (ART), incidence of, and factors associated with pregnancy among these women remain poorly understood. We, therefore, conducted a retrospective cohort study at a large public HIV clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi, between July 2007 and December 2010. At each clinic visit, pregnancy status was assessed. Time to event analysis was conducted using Poisson regression. Among 4,738 women, 589 pregnancies were observed. Pregnancy incidence was 9.3/100 person-years. After 6 months on ART, women on ART had similar total fertility rates to women in the urban population. In multivariable analysis, increasing age and advanced WHO clinical stage were associated with decreased probability of becoming pregnant while higher body mass index and longer time on ART were associated with increased probability of becoming pregnant. We recommend that ART clinics integrate comprehensive family planning services to address reproductive health needs among women on ART

New Methods for Integrated Models of Animal Disease Control

Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods.Animal disease control, simulation modeling, system dynamics, Livestock Production/Industries,

Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

We define and analyze an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination in order to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. We find that epidemics are rarely prevented. We also find that severe epidemics may occur without the introduction of pandemic strains. We further address the situation where market incentives are introduced to help ameliorating epidemics. Surprisingly, we find that vaccinating families exacerbates epidemics. However, a public health program requesting prepayment of vaccinations may significantly ameliorate influenza epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Fighting Flu Fatigue

Reviews responses to the 2009 H1N1 flu, including vaccination rates by state. Recommends steps to increase seasonal flu vaccination rates to boost preparations for flu pandemics and enhance prevention and response efforts for other health emergencies