Improving adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to solve nonlinear random differential equations by the random variable transformation technique

[EN] Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) is a spectral technique in random space to represent random variables and stochastic processes in terms of orthogonal polynomials of the Askey scheme. One of its most fruitful applications consists of solving random differential equations. With gPC, stochastic solutions are expressed as orthogonal polynomials of the input random parameters. Different types of orthogonal polynomials can be chosen to achieve better convergence. This choice is dictated by the key correspondence between the weight function associated to orthogonal polynomials in the Askey scheme and the probability density functions of standard random variables. Otherwise, adaptive gPC constitutes a complementary spectral method to deal with arbitrary random variables in random differential equations. In its original formulation, adaptive gPC requires that both the unknowns and input random parameters enter polynomially in random differential equations. Regarding the inputs, if they appear as non-polynomial mappings of themselves, polynomial approximations are required and, as a consequence, loss of accuracy will be carried out in computations. In this paper an extended version of adaptive gPC is developed to circumvent these limitations of adaptive gPC by taking advantage of the random variable transformation method. A number of illustrative examples show the superiority of the extended adaptive gPC for solving nonlinear random differential equations. In addition, for the sake of completeness, in all examples randomness is tackled by nonlinear expressions.This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grants MTM2013-41765-P.Cortés, J.; Romero, J.; Roselló, M.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2017). Improving adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to solve nonlinear random differential equations by the random variable transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. 50:1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.02.011S1155

Combining Polynomial Chaos Expansions and the Random Variable Transformation Technique to Approximate the Density Function of Stochastic Problems, Including Some Epidemiological Models

[EN] In this paper, we deal with computational uncertainty quantification for stochastic models with one random input parameter. The goal of the paper is twofold: First, to approximate the set of probability density functions of the solution stochastic process, and second, to show the capability of our theoretical findings to deal with some important epidemiological models. The approximations are constructed in terms of a polynomial evaluated at the random input parameter, by means of generalized polynomial chaos expansions and the stochastic Galerkin projection technique. The probability density function of the aforementioned univariate polynomial is computed via the random variable transformation method, by taking into account the domains where the polynomial is strictly monotone. The algebraic/exponential convergence of the Galerkin projections gives rapid convergence of these density functions. The examples are based on fundamental epidemiological models formulated via linear and nonlinear differential and difference equations, where one of the input parameters is assumed to be a random variable.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P. The author Marc Jornet acknowledges the doctorate scholarship granted by Programa de Ayudas de Investigacion y Desarrollo (PAID), Universitat Politecnica de Valencia.Calatayud-Gregori, J.; Chen-Charpentier, BM.; Cortés, J.; Jornet-Sanz, M. (2019). Combining Polynomial Chaos Expansions and the Random Variable Transformation Technique to Approximate the Density Function of Stochastic Problems, Including Some Epidemiological Models. Symmetry (Basel). 11(1):1-28. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym11010043S128111Strand, J. . (1970). Random ordinary differential equations. Journal of Differential Equations, 7(3), 538-553. doi:10.1016/0022-0396(70)90100-2Bharucha-Reid, A. T. (1964). On the theory of random equations. Proceedings of Symposia in Applied Mathematics, 40-69. doi:10.1090/psapm/016/0189071Xiu, D., & Karniadakis, G. E. (2002). The Wiener--Askey Polynomial Chaos for Stochastic Differential Equations. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(2), 619-644. doi:10.1137/s1064827501387826Chen-Charpentier, B.-M., Cortés, J.-C., Licea, J.-A., Romero, J.-V., Roselló, M.-D., Santonja, F.-J., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2015). Constructing adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to measure the uncertainty in continuous models: A computational approach. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 109, 113-129. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2014.09.002Cortés, J.-C., Romero, J.-V., Roselló, M.-D., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2017). Improving adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to solve nonlinear random differential equations by the random variable transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 50, 1-15. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.02.011Chen-Charpentier, B. M., & Stanescu, D. (2010). Epidemic models with random coefficients. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1004-1010. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.01.014Lucor, D., Su, C.-H., & Karniadakis, G. E. (2004). Generalized polynomial chaos and random oscillators. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 60(3), 571-596. doi:10.1002/nme.976Santonja, F., & Chen-Charpentier, B. (2012). Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Epidemics Using Polynomial Chaos. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2012, 1-8. doi:10.1155/2012/742086Stanescu, D., & Chen-Charpentier, B. M. (2009). Random coefficient differential equation models for bacterial growth. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 50(5-6), 885-895. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2009.05.017Calatayud, J., Cortés, J. C., Jornet, M., & Villanueva, R. J. (2018). Computational uncertainty quantification for random time-discrete epidemiological models using adaptive gPC. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 41(18), 9618-9627. doi:10.1002/mma.5315Villegas, M., Augustin, F., Gilg, A., Hmaidi, A., & Wever, U. (2012). Application of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion to the simulation of chemical reactors with uncertainties. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 82(5), 805-817. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2011.12.001Xiu, D., & Em Karniadakis, G. (2002). Modeling uncertainty in steady state diffusion problems via generalized polynomial chaos. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 191(43), 4927-4948. doi:10.1016/s0045-7825(02)00421-8Shi, W., & Zhang, C. (2012). Error analysis of generalized polynomial chaos for nonlinear random ordinary differential equations. Applied Numerical Mathematics, 62(12), 1954-1964. doi:10.1016/j.apnum.2012.08.007Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2018). On the convergence of adaptive gPC for non-linear random difference equations: Theoretical analysis and some practical recommendations. Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Applications, 11(09), 1077-1084. doi:10.22436/jnsa.011.09.06Casabán, M.-C., Cortés, J.-C., Romero, J.-V., & Roselló, M.-D. (2015). Probabilistic solution of random SI-type epidemiological models using the Random Variable Transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 24(1-3), 86-97. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.12.016Dorini, F. A., Cecconello, M. S., & Dorini, L. B. (2016). On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 33, 160-173. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.09.009Dorini, F. A., & Cunha, M. C. C. (2008). Statistical moments of the random linear transport equation. Journal of Computational Physics, 227(19), 8541-8550. doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2008.06.002Hussein, A., & Selim, M. M. (2012). Solution of the stochastic radiative transfer equation with Rayleigh scattering using RVT technique. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 218(13), 7193-7203. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2011.12.088Hussein, A., & Selim, M. M. (2015). Solution of the stochastic generalized shallow-water wave equation using RVT technique. The European Physical Journal Plus, 130(12). doi:10.1140/epjp/i2015-15249-3Hussein, A., & Selim, M. M. (2013). A general analytical solution for the stochastic Milne problem using Karhunen–Loeve (K–L) expansion. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, 125, 84-92. doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2013.03.018Xu, Z., Tipireddy, R., & Lin, G. (2016). Analytical approximation and numerical studies of one-dimensional elliptic equation with random coefficients. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 40(9-10), 5542-5559. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2015.12.041Cortés, J.-C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.-V., & Roselló, M.-D. (2017). Full solution of random autonomous first-order linear systems of difference equations. Application to construct random phase portrait for planar systems. Applied Mathematics Letters, 68, 150-156. doi:10.1016/j.aml.2016.12.015El-Tawil, M. A. (2005). The approximate solutions of some stochastic differential equations using transformations. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 164(1), 167-178. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2004.04.062Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2018). The damped pendulum random differential equation: A comprehensive stochastic analysis via the computation of the probability density function. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 512, 261-279. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2018.08.024Calatayud, J., Cortés, J. C., & Jornet, M. (2018). Uncertainty quantification for random parabolic equations with nonhomogeneous boundary conditions on a bounded domain via the approximation of the probability density function. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 42(17), 5649-5667. doi:10.1002/mma.5333Cortés, J.-C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.-V., & Roselló, M.-D. (2018). Solving second-order linear differential equations with random analytic coefficients about ordinary points: A full probabilistic solution by the first probability density function. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 331, 33-45. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2018.02.051Casabán, M.-C., Cortés, J.-C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.-V., Roselló, M.-D., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2016). A comprehensive probabilistic solution of random SIS-type epidemiological models using the random variable transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 32, 199-210. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.08.009Kegan, B., & West, R. W. (2005). Modeling the simple epidemic with deterministic differential equations and random initial conditions. Mathematical Biosciences, 194(2), 217-231. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2005.02.002Crestaux, T., Le Maıˆtre, O., & Martinez, J.-M. (2009). Polynomial chaos expansion for sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 94(7), 1161-1172. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2008.10.008Sudret, B. (2008). Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(7), 964-979. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.04.002Chen-Charpentier, B. M., Cortés, J.-C., Romero, J.-V., & Roselló, M.-D. (2013). Some recommendations for applying gPC (generalized polynomial chaos) to modeling: An analysis through the Airy random differential equation. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 219(9), 4208-4218. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2012.11.007Ernst, O. G., Mugler, A., Starkloff, H.-J., & Ullmann, E. (2011). On the convergence of generalized polynomial chaos expansions. ESAIM: Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Analysis, 46(2), 317-339. doi:10.1051/m2an/2011045Giraud, L., Langou, J., & Rozloznik, M. (2005). The loss of orthogonality in the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 50(7), 1069-1075. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2005.08.009Marzouk, Y. M., Najm, H. N., & Rahn, L. A. (2007). Stochastic spectral methods for efficient Bayesian solution of inverse problems. Journal of Computational Physics, 224(2), 560-586. doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2006.10.010Marzouk, Y., & Xiu, D. (2009). A Stochastic Collocation Approach to Bayesian Inference in Inverse Problems. Communications in Computational Physics, 6(4), 826-847. doi:10.4208/cicp.2009.v6.p826SCOTT, D. W. (1979). On optimal and data-based histograms. Biometrika, 66(3), 605-610. doi:10.1093/biomet/66.3.605National Spanish Health Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Salud de España, ENSE)http://pestadistico.inteligenciadegestion.msssi.es/publicoSNS/comun/ArbolNodos.asp

Constructing reliable approximations of the probability density function to the random heat PDE via a finite difference scheme

[EN] We study the random heat partial differential equation on a bounded domain assuming that the diffusion coefficient and the boundary conditions are random variables, and the initial condition is a stochastic process. Under general conditions, this stochastic system possesses a unique solution stochastic process in the almost sure and mean square senses. To quantify the uncertainty for this solution process, the computation of the probability density function is a major goal. By using a random finite difference scheme, we approximate the stochastic solution at each point by a sequence of random variables, whose probability density functions are computable, i.e., we construct a sequence of approximating density functions. We include numerical experiments to illustrate the applicability of our method.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P. The co-author Marc Jornet acknowledges the doctorate scholarship granted by Programa de Ayudas de Investigacion y Desarrollo (PAID), Universitat Politecnica de Valencia.Calatayud, J.; Cortés, J.; Díaz, J.; Jornet, M. (2020). Constructing reliable approximations of the probability density function to the random heat PDE via a finite difference scheme. Applied Numerical Mathematics. 151:413-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apnum.2020.01.012S413424151Calatayud, J., Cortés, J.-C., & Jornet, M. (2018). The damped pendulum random differential equation: A comprehensive stochastic analysis via the computation of the probability density function. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 512, 261-279. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2018.08.024Casabán, M.-C., Company, R., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2014). Solving the random diffusion model in an infinite medium: A mean square approach. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 38(24), 5922-5933. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2014.04.063Casabán, M.-C., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2016). Solving random mixed heat problems: A random integral transform approach. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 291, 5-19. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2014.09.021Cortés, J. C., Sevilla-Peris, P., & Jódar, L. (2005). Analytic-numerical approximating processes of diffusion equation with data uncertainty. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 49(7-8), 1255-1266. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2004.05.015Cortés, J. C., Sevilla-Peris, P., & Jódar, L. (2006). Constructing approximate diffusion processes with uncertain data. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 73(1-4), 125-132. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2006.06.009Cortés, J.-C., Romero, J.-V., Roselló, M.-D., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2017). Improving adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to solve nonlinear random differential equations by the random variable transformation technique. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 50, 1-15. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.02.011Debussche, A., & Printems, J. (2008). Weak order for the discretization of the stochastic heat equation. Mathematics of Computation, 78(266), 845-863. doi:10.1090/s0025-5718-08-02184-4Dorini, F. A., Cecconello, M. S., & Dorini, L. B. (2016). On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 33, 160-173. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.09.009Geissert, M., Kovács, M., & Larsson, S. (2009). Rate of weak convergence of the finite element method for the stochastic heat equation with additive noise. BIT Numerical Mathematics, 49(2), 343-356. doi:10.1007/s10543-009-0227-yHeydari, M. H., Hooshmandasl, M. R., Barid Loghmani, G., & Cattani, C. (2015). Wavelets Galerkin method for solving stochastic heat equation. International Journal of Computer Mathematics, 93(9), 1579-1596. doi:10.1080/00207160.2015.1067311Hien, T. D., & Kleiber, M. (1997). Stochastic finite element modelling in linear transient heat transfer. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 144(1-2), 111-124. doi:10.1016/s0045-7825(96)01168-1Lord, G. J., & Tambue, A. (2019). Stochastic exponential integrators for a finite element discretisation of SPDEs with additive noise. Applied Numerical Mathematics, 136, 163-182. doi:10.1016/j.apnum.2018.10.008Lord, G. J., Powell, C. E., & Shardlow, T. (2009). An Introduction to Computational Stochastic PDEs. doi:10.1017/cbo9781139017329Nouri, K., Ranjbar, H., & Torkzadeh, L. (2019). Modified stochastic theta methods by ODEs solvers for stochastic differential equations. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 68, 336-346. doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2018.08.013Slama, H., El-Bedwhey, N. A., El-Depsy, A., & Selim, M. M. (2017). Solution of the finite Milne problem in stochastic media with RVT Technique. The European Physical Journal Plus, 132(12). doi:10.1140/epjp/i2017-11763-6Xiu, D., & Karniadakis, G. E. (2003). A new stochastic approach to transient heat conduction modeling with uncertainty. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 46(24), 4681-4693. doi:10.1016/s0017-9310(03)00299-0Xu, Z. (2014). A stochastic analysis of steady and transient heat conduction in random media using a homogenization approach. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 38(13), 3233-3243. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2013.11.04