Growth simulation and yield prediction for perennial jujube fruit tree by integrating age into the WOFOST model

peer reviewedMathematical models have been widely employed for the simulation of growth dynamics of annual crops, thereby performing yield prediction, but not for fruit tree species such as jujube tree (Zizyphus jujuba). The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential use of a modified WOFOST model for predicting jujube yield by introducing tree age as a key parameter. The model was established using data collected from dedicated field experiments performed in 2016–2018. Simulated growth dynamics of dry weights of leaves, stems, fruits, total biomass and leaf area index (LAI) agreed well with measured values, showing root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.143, 0.333, 0.366, 0.624 t ha−1 and 0.19, and R2 values of 0.947, 0.976, 0.985, 0.986 and 0.95, respectively. Simulated phenological development stages for emergence, anthesis and maturity were 2, 3 and 3 days earlier than the observed values, respectively. In addition, in order to predict the yields of trees with different ages, the weight of new organs (initial buds and roots) in each growing season was introduced as the initial total dry weight (TDWI), which was calculated as averaged, fitted and optimized values of trees with the same age. The results showed the evolution of the simulated LAI and yields profiled in response to the changes in TDWI. The modelling performance was significantly improved when it considered TDWI integrated with tree age, showing good global (R2≥0.856, RMSE≤0.68 t ha−1) and local accuracies (mean R2≥0.43, RMSE≤0.70 t ha−1). Furthermore, the optimized TDWI exhibited the highest precision, with globally validated R2 of 0.891 and RMSE of 0.591 t ha−1, and local mean R2 of 0.57 and RMSE of 0.66 t ha−1, respectively. The proposed model was not only verified with the confidence to accurately predict yields of jujube, but it can also provide a fundamental strategy for simulating the growth of other fruit trees

Radiative transfer model inversion using high-resolution hyperspectral airborne imagery – Retrieving maize LAI to access biomass and grain yield

Mapping crop within-field yield variability provide an essential piece of information for precision agriculture applications. Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter that describes maize growth, vegetation structure, light absorption and subsequently maize biomass and grain yield (GY). The main goal for this study was to estimate maize biomass and GY through LAI retrieved from hyperspectral aerial images using a PROSAIL model inversion and compare its performance with biomass and GY estimations through simple vegetation index approaches. This study was conducted in two separate maize fields of 12 and 20 ha located in north-west Mexico. Both fields were cultivated with the same hybrid. One field was irrigated by a linear pivot and the other by a furrow irrigation system. Ground LAI data were collected at different crop growth stages followed by maize biomass and GY at the harvesting time. Through a weekly/biweekly airborne flight campaign, a total of 19 mosaics were acquired between both fields with a micro-hyperspectral Vis-NIR imaging sensor ranging from 400 to 850 nanometres (nm) at different crop growth stages. The PROSAIL model was calibrated and validated for retrieving maize LAI by simulating maize canopy spectral reflectance based on crop-specific parameters. The model was used to retrieve LAI from both fields and to subsequently estimate maize biomass and GY. Additionally, different vegetation indices were calculated from the aerial images to also estimate maize yield and compare the indices with PROSAIL based estimations. The PROSAIL validation to retrieve LAI from hyperspectral imagery showed a R² value of 0.5 against ground LAI with RMSE of 0.8 m²/m². Maize biomass and GY estimation based on NDRE showed the highest accuracies, followed by retrieved LAI, GNDVI and NDVI with R² value of 0.81, 0.73, 0.73 and 0.65 for biomass, and 0.83, 0.69, 0.73 and 0.62 for GY estimation, respectively. Furthermore, the late vegetative growth stage at V16 was found to be the best stage for maize yield prediction for all studied indices

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle based photogrammetric point cloud data for winter wheat intra-field variable retrieval and yield estimation in Southwestern Ontario

Precision agriculture uses high spatial and temporal resolution soil and crop information to control the crop intra-field variability to achieve optimal economic benefit and environmental resources sustainable development. As a new imagery collection platform between airborne and ground measurements, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is used to collect high spatial resolution images at a user selected period for precision agriculture. Most studies extract crop parameters from the UAV-based orthomosaic imagery using spectral methods derived from the satellite and airborne based remote sensing. The new dataset, photogrammetric point cloud data (PCD), generated from the Structure from Motion (SfM) methods using the UAV-based images contains the feature’s structural information, which has not been fully utilized to extract crop’s biophysical information. This thesis explores the potential for the applications of the UAV-based photogrammetric PCD in crop biophysical variable retrieval and in final biomass and yield estimation. First, a new moving cuboid filter is applied to the voxel of UAV-based photogrammetric PCD of winter wheat to eliminate noise points, and the crop height is calculated from the highest and lowest points in each voxel. The results show that the winter wheat height can be estimated from the UAV-based photogrammetric PCD directly with high accuracy. Secondly, a new Simulated Observation of Point Cloud (SOPC) method was designed to obtain the 3D spatial distribution of vegetation and bare ground points and calculate the gap fraction and effective leaf area index (LAIe). It reveals that the ground-based crop biophysical methods are possible to be adopted by the PCD to retrieve LAIe without ground measurements. Finally, the SOPC method derived LAIe maps were applied to the Simple Algorithm for Yield estimation (SAFY) to generate the sub-field biomass and yield maps. The pixel-based biomass and yield maps were generated in this study revealed clearly the intra-field yield variation. This framework using the UAV-based SOPC-LAIe maps and SAFY model could be a simple and low-cost alternative for final yield estimation at the sub-field scale. The results of this thesis show that the UAV-based photogrammetric PCD is an alternative source of data in crop monitoring for precision agriculture

Crop monitoring and yield estimation using polarimetric SAR and optical satellite data in southwestern Ontario

Optical satellite data have been proven as an efficient source to extract crop information and monitor crop growth conditions over large areas. In local- to subfield-scale crop monitoring studies, both high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution of the image data are important. However, the acquisition of optical data is limited by the constant contamination of clouds in cloudy areas. This thesis explores the potential of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data and the spatio-temporal data fusion approach in crop monitoring and yield estimation applications in southwestern Ontario. Firstly, the sensitivity of 16 parameters derived from C-band Radarsat-2 polarimetric SAR data to crop height and fractional vegetation cover (FVC) was investigated. The results show that the SAR backscatters are affected by many factors unrelated to the crop canopy such as the incidence angle and the soil background and the degree of sensitivity varies with the crop types, growing stages, and the polarimetric SAR parameters. Secondly, the Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) transformation, for the first time, was applied to multitemporal Radarsat-2 polarimetric SAR data in cropland area mapping based on the random forest classifier. An overall classification accuracy of 95.89% was achieved using the MNF transformation of the multi-temporal coherency matrix acquired from July to November. Then, a spatio-temporal data fusion method was developed to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series with both high spatial and high temporal resolution in heterogeneous regions using Landsat and MODIS imagery. The proposed method outperforms two other widely used methods. Finally, an improved crop phenology detection method was proposed, and the phenology information was then forced into the Simple Algorithm for Yield Estimation (SAFY) model to estimate crop biomass and yield. Compared with the SAFY model without forcing the remotely sensed phenology and a simple light use efficiency (LUE) model, the SAFY incorporating the remotely sensed phenology can improve the accuracy of biomass estimation by about 4% in relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE). The studies in this thesis improve the ability to monitor crop growth status and production at subfield scale