Sequence Classification Restricted Boltzmann Machines With Gated Units

For the classification of sequential data, dynamic Bayesian networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are the preferred models. While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependences between the variables, and the latter have the capability of learning representations. The recurrent temporal restricted Boltzmann machine (RTRBM) is a model that combines these two features. However, learning and inference in RTRBMs can be difficult because of the exponential nature of its gradient computations when maximizing log likelihoods. In this article, first, we address this intractability by optimizing a conditional rather than a joint probability distribution when performing sequence classification. This results in the ``sequence classification restricted Boltzmann machine'' (SCRBM). Second, we introduce gated SCRBMs (gSCRBMs), which use an information processing gate, as an integration of SCRBMs with long short-term memory (LSTM) models. In the experiments reported in this article, we evaluate the proposed models on optical character recognition, chunking, and multiresident activity recognition in smart homes. The experimental results show that gSCRBMs achieve the performance comparable to that of the state of the art in all three tasks. gSCRBMs require far fewer parameters in comparison with other recurrent networks with memory gates, in particular, LSTMs and gated recurrent units (GRUs)

Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE 2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i

LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances

Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC

Learning to detect chest radiographs containing lung nodules using visual attention networks

Machine learning approaches hold great potential for the automated detection of lung nodules in chest radiographs, but training the algorithms requires vary large amounts of manually annotated images, which are difficult to obtain. Weak labels indicating whether a radiograph is likely to contain pulmonary nodules are typically easier to obtain at scale by parsing historical free-text radiological reports associated to the radiographs. Using a repositotory of over 700,000 chest radiographs, in this study we demonstrate that promising nodule detection performance can be achieved using weak labels through convolutional neural networks for radiograph classification. We propose two network architectures for the classification of images likely to contain pulmonary nodules using both weak labels and manually-delineated bounding boxes, when these are available. Annotated nodules are used at training time to deliver a visual attention mechanism informing the model about its localisation performance. The first architecture extracts saliency maps from high-level convolutional layers and compares the estimated position of a nodule against the ground truth, when this is available. A corresponding localisation error is then back-propagated along with the softmax classification error. The second approach consists of a recurrent attention model that learns to observe a short sequence of smaller image portions through reinforcement learning. When a nodule annotation is available at training time, the reward function is modified accordingly so that exploring portions of the radiographs away from a nodule incurs a larger penalty. Our empirical results demonstrate the potential advantages of these architectures in comparison to competing methodologies

A Novel Predictive-Coding-Inspired Variational RNN Model for Online Prediction and Recognition

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.Comment: The paper is accepted in Neural Computatio