Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

A Case Study Of E-Supply Chain & Business Process Reengineering Of A Semiconductor Company In Malaysia

Penglibatan e-perniagaan dalam rantaian bekalan telah mewujudkan e-rantaian bekalan yang baru (e-SC) di firma-firma tempatan dan global. Due to globalization and advancement in information technology (IT), companies adopt best practices in e-business and supply chain management to be globally competitive as both are realities and prospects in 21st century

Digital Transformation - IoT is a Metaphor

Digital Transformation is a convergence of multiple tools, technologies and ideas. A few of these elements are discussed in "IoT is a Metaphor" (PDF).Digital Economics is approaching and the "new economy" will need new rules, new changes and new thinking. Digital Transformation is a step toward Digital Economy. In this article, we haven't even scratched the surface of the imminent digital tsunami. Infrastructure and innovation must converge with tools and technologies, where systems must connect and communicate to meet the customer at the point of consumption. This will be an immense change which will turn paradoxes to paradigms. Please scroll down to download the pdf "IoT is a Metaphor

Industry Clockspeed and Competency Chain Design: An Introductory Essay

Appeared in proceedings of the 1996 Manufacturing and Service Operations Management Conference, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire June 24-25, 1996, pp. TBA.This paper introduces the notion of industry clockspeed to classify industries by an aspect of their dynamic characteristics. The clockspeed framework suggests a dynamic theory of the firm where the "inner core" competency of an organization is the ability to continually design and assemble of chains of competencies to deliver value to the marketplace

Critical Management Issues for Implementing RFID in Supply Chain Management

The benefits of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology in the supply chain are fairly compelling. It has the potential to revolutionise the efficiency, accuracy and security of the supply chain with significant impact on overall profitability. A number of companies are actively involved in testing and adopting this technology. It is estimated that the market for RFID products and services will increase significantly in the next few years. Despite this trend, there are major impediments to RFID adoption in supply chain. While RFID systems have been around for several decades, the technology for supply chain management is still emerging. We describe many of the challenges, setbacks and barriers facing RFID implementations in supply chains, discuss the critical issues for management and offer some suggestions. In the process, we take an in-depth look at cost, technology, standards, privacy and security and business process reengineering related issues surrounding RFID technology in supply chains

Technology requirements for communication satellites in the 1980's

The key technology requirements are defined for meeting the forecasted demands for communication satellite services in the 1985 to 1995 time frame. Evaluation is made of needs for services and technical and functional requirements for providing services. The future growth capabilities of the terrestrial telephone network, cable television, and satellite networks are forecasted. The impact of spacecraft technology and booster performance and costs upon communication satellite costs are analyzed. Systems analysis techniques are used to determine functional requirements and the sensitivities of technology improvements for reducing the costs of meeting requirements. Recommended development plans and funding levels are presented, as well as the possible cost saving for communications satellites in the post 1985 era

Industry clockspeed and competency chain design : an introductory essay

Cover title. "March 1996."Includes bibliographical references (leaf 6).Supported in part by the International Center for Research on the Management of Technology (ICRMOT).Charles H. Fine

From Hindsight to Foresight: Applying Futures Research Techniques in Information Systems

Although much IS research deals with evaluating and improving existing information systems, researchers are also called upon to think about the future, particularly beyond organizational boundaries. Examples include: the potential impact of socio-technical phenomena such as the digital divide, digital rights management, security, and privacy. One way of forecasting the future is to extrapolate empirically observed relations (e.g. Moore’s law). However, such extrapolations assume that the future is an immutable extension of the present and are usually limited to one or two dimensions. Externalities due to disruptive inventions, changes in regulations, tastes, competition, required skills, and more also need to be considered. This tutorial presents and explains three methodologies that take these possible changes into account to improve our understanding of the future: Delphi, cross impact analysis, and scenarios