17,559 research outputs found

    Assessing the welfare impacts of public spending

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    An important objective of public spending is to raise household living standards, particularly for the poor. But how can final impacts on this objective best be assessed? Evaluating a policy's impact requires assessing how different things would have been in its absence. But the counterfactual of no intervention is tricky to quantify. The author surveys the methods most often used to assess the welfare effects of public spending. Limitations of current practices are studied and implications for future best practices are drawn. The methods used to assess welfare impacts broadly fall into two groups: benefit incidence studies and behavioral approaches. Benefit incidence studies ignore behavioral responses and second-round effects, using the provision cost as a proxy for benefits received. Behavioral approaches present quite different drawbacks, in attempting to represent individual benefits correctly. A number of recent studies usefully combine both approaches. It is still uncertain whether behaviorally consistent methods actually point to fundamentally different policy recommendations. What can be concluded is that we need to diversify and compare results from our evaluation methods and broaden our definition of well-being, to see how various facets of living standard are affected by public spending.Public Health Promotion,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Decentralization,Poverty and Social Impact Analysis,Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research

    How change agents and social capital influence the adoption of innovations among small farmers: Evidence from social networks in rural Bolivia

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    "This paper presents results from a study that identified patterns of social interaction among small farmers in three agricultural subsectors in Bolivia—fish culture, peanut production, and quinoa production—and analyzed how social interaction influences farmers' behavior toward the adoption of pro-poor innovations. Twelve microregions were identified, four in each subsector, setting the terrain for an analysis of parts of social networks that deal with the diffusion of specific sets of innovations. Three hundred sixty farmers involved in theses networks as well as 60 change agents and other actors promoting directly or indirectly the diffusion of innovations were interviewed about the interactions they maintain with other agents in the network and the sociodemographic characteristics that influence their adoption behavior. The information derived from this data collection was used to test a wide range of hypotheses on the impact that the embeddedness of farmers in social networks has on the intensity with which they adopt innovations. Evidence provided by the study suggests that persuasion, social influence, and competition are significant influences in the decisions of farmers in poor rural regions in Bolivia to adopt innovations. The results of this study are meant to attract the attention of policymakers and practitioners who are interested in the design and implementation of projects and programs fostering agricultural innovation and who may want to take into account the effects of social interaction and social capital. Meanwhile, scholars of the diffusion of innovations may find evidence to further embrace the complexity and interdependence of social interactions in their models and approaches." from Author's AbstractSocial networks, Agricultural innovation, Change agent, Social capital,

    Risk aversion in low income countries: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

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    "Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income farmers. Despite risk's potentially central role in farm investment decisions, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion of farm households in low-income developing countries. To partially close this gap, this paper uses an experimental approach applied to 262 households in the Ethiopian highlands with real payoffs. By incorporating both small and large stakes and gains and losses into the experiment, we test for the presence of low stake risk aversion and loss aversion. We find that more than 50 percent of the households are severely or extremely risk averse. This contrasts with studies in Asia where most household decision-makers exhibit moderate to intermediate risk aversion. We find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are significantly more risk averse than households playing gains-only games. This strongly suggests that agricultural extension efforts involving losses as well as gains may face systematic resistance by farmers in low-income, high-risk environments. Promotion of technologies with downside risks – even if the upside potential is enormous – should therefore be combined with insurance or other support. We also find that even without the possibility of losses households are much more averse to risk when stakes are high. Results indicate that insurance or other support can likely be phased out. After initial successes have convinced farmers that technologies are viable, risk aversion declines. There are also significant differences in risk averting behavior between relatively poorer and wealthier farm households, which is consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. This suggests that as wealth is built up households are willing to take on more risk in exchange for higher returns. Both these findings suggest a strong path dependence. Efforts to develop poor rural areas through promotion of risky technologies should take this path dependence into account. Early successes are important, but households should also be allowed to build up wealth before they are challenged or tempted to take on more risky ventures. Furthermore, the finding that even without the possibility of losses households are much more risk averse when stakes are higher, suggests that agricultural extension should start modestly before asking households to take on larger gambles." from Authors' Abstractexperimental studies, loss aversion, risk aversion, Risk management, econometric models, Farm households,

    A protection motivation theory approach to improving compliance with password guidelines

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    Usernames and passwords form the most widely used method of user authentication on the Internet. Yet, users still find compliance with password guidelines difficult. The primary objective of this research was to investigate how compliance with password guidelines and password quality can be improved. This study investigated how user perceptions of passwords and security threats affect compliance with password guidelines and explored if altering these perceptions would improve compliance. This research also examined if compliance with password guidelines can be sustained over time. This study focuses on personal security, particularly factors that influence compliance when using personal online accounts. The proposed research model is based on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) (Rogers, 1975, 1983), a model widely used in information systems security research. As studies have failed to consistently confirm the association between perceived vulnerability and information security practices, the model was extended to include exposure to hacking as a predictor of perceived vulnerability. Experimental research was used to test the model from two groups of Internet users, one of which received PMT based fear appeals in the form of a password security information and training exercise. To examine if password strength was improved by the fear appeals, passwords were collected. A password strength analysis tool was developed using Shannon’s (2001) formula for calculating entropy and coded in Visual Basic. Structural equation modeling was used to test the model. The proposed model explains compliance intentions moderately well, with 54% of the variance explained by the treatment model and 43% explained by the control group model. Overall, the results indicate that efficacy perceptions are a stronger predictor of compliance intentions than threat perceptions. This study identifies three variables that predict user intentions to comply with password guidelines as particularly important. These are perceived threat, perceived password effectiveness and password self-efficacy. The results show no association between perceived vulnerability to a security attack and a user’s decision to comply. The results also showed that those who are provided with password information and training are significantly more likely to comply, and create significantly stronger passwords. However, the fear appeals used in this study had no long-term effects on compliance intentions. The results on the long-term effects of password training on the participants’ ability to remember passwords were however promising. The group that received password training with a mnemonic training component was twice as likely to remember their passwords over time. The results of this research have practical implications for organizations. They highlight the need to raise the levels of concern for information systems security threats through training in order to improve compliance with security guidelines. Communicating to users what security responses are available is important; however, whether they implement them is dependent on how effective they feel the security responses are in preventing an attack. Regarding passwords, the single most important consideration by a user is whether they have the ability to create strong, memorable passwords. At the very least, users should be trained on how to create strong passwords, with emphasis on memorization strategies. This research found mnemonic password training to have some long-term effects on users’ ability to remember passwords, which is arguably one of the most vexing challenges associated with passwords. Future research should explore the extent to which the effects of PMT based information systems security communication can be maintained over time

    Similarity Structure Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling in Studying Latent Structures: An Application to the Attitudes towards Portuguese Language Questionnaire

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    Several international studies such as PISA and PILRS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study), have stressed the importance of positive attitudes and behaviours as facilitators of individuals reading literacy during the school years and throughout their lives. Considering that there are not available instruments for assessing attitudes Towards Portuguese Language, it was proposed the development of the Attitudes towards Portuguese Language Questionnaire – ATPLQ (Questionário de Atitudes Face à Língua Portuguesa: QAFLP, Neto et al., 2011; Rebelo, 2012). The questionnaire has 22 Likert-type items, with four levels of response (Strongly Disagree, Disagree, Agree, Strongly Agree), spread, through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), over three attitudinal dimensions: Behavioural, Affective, and Motivational.In this study we aimed to analyse the ATPLQ’s latent structure with a pooled sample data of 1441 participants, applying similarity structure analysis (SSA) and confirmatory factor analysis of ordinal data (CFA). The SSA was carried out with Hudap in order to identify the structural properties of the questionnaire and to assess its adequacy in a Portuguese population. The CFA was carried out with LISREL in order to assure structural validity, i.e., accounting for factorial validity, but also for factors’ convergent and discriminant validity, and composite reliability. These psychometric features allowed the comparison of both the EFA derived model and the SSA derived model. We justify the selection of the SSA’s model, and we discuss the similarities between the results generated by SSA and LISREL procedures, highlighting their use in modeling constructs with ordinal indicators

    Evidence on Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Theory

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    Strategic trade theory shows that government intervention in markets with small numbers of traders can boost the welfare of a country relative to free trade. This survey critically assesses the empirical evidence regarding this possibility. One finding is that while many international food and agricultural markets are characterized by oligopoly, price-cost markups tend to be small, and the potential gains from intervention are modest at best. In turn, existing government interventions such as agricultural export subsidies are generally not optimal in a strategic trade sense. The evidence suggests that oligopoly by itself is not a sufficient rationale for deviating from free trade in international markets.

    Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

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    The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS
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