Asset allocation versus entrepreneurial decisions in real estate investment

(Abstract) Although the application of capital market theory is questionable in real estate investment, many institutional investors still perform asset allocation with historic real estate data. Entrepreneurial investment analysis relies on a different information setting. To date it is unclear which approach, or what data set, offers the most efficient solutions for the use of capital. In order to evaluate policy recommendations for decision making in pension fund real estate investment, we describe an empirical investigation of the investment environment in Germany. We find that current market information restricts the application of capital market models. While the use of investment models and capital market models has been strictly separated, there is no theoretically justified reason for this. Investors have to be aware that they can determine performance parameters for real estate only as approximations. Therefore, it may be fruitful to consider and compare alternative parameter estimates for determining optimal real estate allocations in pension fund investment.

Basel II and the German credit crunch?

(Abstract) In the market for German real estate finance at the end of 2001 a phenomenon could be identified that shows significant parallels to the shortening of credit supply in the US market in the early nineties, called the credit crunch. There are two basic reasons that explain the withdrawal of mortgage banks from the current events in real estate debt finance. Both are linked to a lack of risk identification in real estate investment. First, mortgage banks are engaged in a portfolio of bad real estate credits. In the past and today, banks do not receive information to price the true property risks. Especially from their money transfer to eastern Germany they still suffer of high deprecations in these engagements. The high impact of single properties can not be diversified. This is why banks were exposed to higher risks than they calculated in their market risk exposure. On the other hand, the preparation for Basel II indicates how sensitive risk have to be treated according to the new regulatory environment. This causes a split of relationship ties where real estate risks were not priced for decades. The result is a failure of all sorts of real estate finance in Germany. From the survey on institutional real estate investment behavior, it becomes evident that market participants ignore property risks and they do not have the instruments available to price these risks. This is why banks act so cautious in preparation for Basel II. Banks will have to find the instruments to either price these property risks or have intermediaries price them and include diversified securities into their holdings. True intermediaries are not present in German real estate finance. Banks failed in their function to price risk and monitor the quality of investors in debt finance. In addition, a lot of direct finance from households to real estate investors as open-ended or closedended funds takes place. We suggest the introduction of a real estate investment banking function that offers true intermediation services. It monitors the risk pricing of real estate investors and places the securitized and rated risk exposure at banks or in the capital market to provide finance to capital seekers. Future real estate investment would be financed risk-adjusted and financing volumes could increase again.

Macroeconomic risk factors in Australian commercial real estate, listed property trust and property sector stock returns: A comparative analysis using GARCH-M

This paper employs a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to consider the effect of macroeconomic factors on Australian property returns over the period 1985 to 2002 Three direct (office, retail and industrial property) and two indirect (listed property trust and property stock) returns are included in the analysis, along with market returns, short, medium and long-term interest rates, expected and unexpected inflation, construction activity and industrial employment and production. In general, the macroeconomic factors examined are found to be significant risk factors in Australian commercial property returns. However, the results also indicate that forecast accuracy in these models is higher for direct office, listed property trust and property stock returns and that the persistence of volatility shocks varies across the different markets, with volatility half lives of between five and seven months for direct retail and industrial property, two and three months for direct office property and less than two months with both forms of indirect property investment

The Assessment of Real Estate Initiatives to Be Included in the Socially-Responsible Funds

The acknowledgment of the ongoing economic and financial crisis involving real estate, creates the need to formulate proposals and scenarios (in real estate) with the characteristics of socially responsible investments. These kind of investments aim towards “sustainable” development both environmentally (safeguarding the shortage of resources such as land, energy, and natural elements), and socially (protecting the population and raising its level of well-being) according to so-called “ethical finance”, instead of a mere “speculative” investment. Effectively, real estate is still an investment sector only marginally explored by the socially-responsible funds. Based on these premises, this paper will: (i) briefly analyze the nature of socially-responsible investments, setting their characteristics apart from “traditional investments”; and (ii) propose a possible procedure (of the multi-criteria type) which aims to assess socially-responsible investments in real estate. This will be applied to a case study regarding a social housing initiative in the municipality of Anguillara Sabazia (Rome, Italy)

An investigation of development appraisal methods employed by valuers and appraisers in small and medium sized practices in Brazil

Purpose – Whilst the real estate development appraisal practices of large national and international real estate companies are well understood, relatively little is known about how development appraisals are conducted by indigenous appraisers and valuers in developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how development appraisal is conducted in Brazil, compared to the UK, focusing primarily on the methods employed by small- and medium-sized real estate practices and their appraisers to appraise the viability of commercial real estate developments in the State of Sao Paulo. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs a two phase Delphi Method to capture and analyse empirical data from small- and medium-sized real estate appraisers in Brazil. Using the long established and relatively transparent UK Residual Method of development appraisal as a template against which to compare Brazilian appraisal methods, guidance and practice. To understand how indigenous development appraisers operate the Brazilian development appraisal methods, the research was conducted in Portuguese by a bi-lingual real estate expert who was familiar with both UK and Brazilian practice. Findings – The research establishes that appraisers working for small- and medium -sized real estate practices in Brazil rarely use the Residual Method. Instead, they employ a range of methods, the choice of which is heavily influenced by the availability of comparable market data, with Direct Comparison of market data and the Capitalisation of Income being the methods of choice when sufficient comparable evidence is available. Appraisers rarely employ the Residual Method as the principal development appraisal technique, using instead the Comparative Method and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. Land prices are usually agreed or already known and developer’s profit is usually determined using DCF analysis and is highly sensitive to fluctuations in construction costs. Research limitations/implications – The research engaged with a small number of appraisers and valuers in small- and medium-sized practices in the State of Sao Paulo using a two-phase Delphi Method. The long established UK Residual Method of development appraisal was used as a template against which to compare practice in Sao Paulo State. There is potential therefore to replicate the research in other Brazilian States and transfer the methodology to other developing countries. Practical implications – In Brazil, when development land in urban areas is acquired on the basis of plot exchange, land is often sold at less than market value and the original landowner retains an equity stake in the development and shares in the development overage. The practice of “permuta física”, giving landowners the freehold of part of the development, or “permuta financeira”, whereby the landowner receives an enhanced land price, indexed against development value, is of potential relevance to the UK and other developed countries that need help in urban unlocking land markets

Time weighted portfolio optimisation

In estimating the inputs into the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) portfolio optimisation problem, it is usual to use equal weighted historic data. Equal weighting of the data, however, does not take account of the current state of the market. Consequently this approach is unlikely to perform well in any subsequent period as the data is still reflecting market conditions that are no longer valid. The need for some return-weighting scheme that gives greater weight to the most recent data would seem desirable. Therefore, this study uses returns data which are weighted to give greater weight to the most recent observations to see if such a weighting scheme can offer improved ex-ante performance over that based on un-weighted data

Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices

This paper analyzes the effects of bank lending on German commercial property prices. The theory on the role of financial intermediaries in business cycle activity states that lending activity is characterized by asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. As a consequence, interest rates may not move to clear lending markets (as in models with moral hazard and adverse selection elements) or firms' net worth may play a critical role as collateral in influencing lending activity (as in models with agency costs). While the theory is concrete, the debate on the empirical support for these models continues. In this paper, our goal is to continue in exploring this debate by estimating a recursive VAR model using German (both aggregate and regional level) commercial property data from 1975 to 2004. Unlike other previous empirical results in commercial real estate literature, our main results show a weak negative correlation between growth in property prices and growth in credit, especially at the regional level.Kreditgewährung ; Gewerbeimmobilien ; Vektor-autoregressives Modell

Open-end real estate funds in Germany: genesis and crisis

Open-end real estate funds are of particular importance in the German bank- dominated financial system. However, recently the German open-end fund industry came under severe distress which triggered a broad discussion of required regulatory interventions. This paper gives a detailed description of the institutional structure of these funds and of the events that led to the crisis. Furthermore, it applies recent banking theory to openend real estate funds in order to understand why the open-end fund structure was so prevalent in Germany. Based on these theoretical insights we evaluate the various policy recommendations that have been raised. --Open-End Funds,Liquidity Transformation,Liquidity Crisis,Risk Sharing