Exploring the adaptive capacity of emergency management using agent based modelling

This project aimed to explore the suitability of Agent Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) technology in assisting planners and policy makers to better understand complex situations with multiple interacting aspects. The technology supports exploration of the impact of different factors on potential outcomes of a scenario, thus building understanding to inform decision making. To concretise this exploration a specific simulation tool was developed to explore response capacity around flash flooding in an inner Melbourne suburb, with a focus on sandbag depots as an option to be considered.The three types of activities delivered by this project to achieve its objectives were the development of an agent-based simulation, data collection to inform the development of the simulation and communication and engagement activities to progress the work. Climate change is an area full of uncertainties, and yet sectors such as Emergency Management and many others need to develop plans and policy responses regarding adaptation to these uncertain futures. Agent Based Modelling and Simulation is a technology which supports modelling of a complex situation from the bottom up, by modelling the behaviours of individual agents (often representing humans) in various scenarios. By running simulations with different configurations it is possible to explore and analyse a very broad range of potential options, providing a detailed understanding of potential risks and outcomes, given particular alternatives. This project explored the suitability of this technology for use in assessing and developing the capacity of the emergency response sector, as it adapts to climate change. A simulation system was developed to explore a particular issue regarding protection of property in a suburb prone to flash flooding. In particular the option of providing sandbag depots was explored. Simulations indicated that sandbag depots provided by CoPP or VicSES were at this time not a viable option. The simulation tool was deemed to be very useful for demonstrating this to community members as well as to decision makers. An interactive game was also developed to assist in raising awareness of community members about how to sandbag their property using on-site sandbags. The technology was deemed to be of great potential benefit to the sector and areas for further work inorder to realise this benefit were identified. In addition to developing awareness of useful technology, this project also demonstrated the critical importance of interdisciplinary team work, and close engagement with stakeholders and end users, if valuable technology uptake is to be realised. &nbsp

Evaluating Process Improvement Courses of Action Through Modeling and Simulation

Quantifying an expected improvement when considering moderate-complexity changes to a process is time consuming and has potential to overlook stochastic effects. By modeling a process as a Numerical Design Structure Matrix (NDSM), simulating the proposed changes, and evaluating performance, quantification can be rapidly accomplished to understand stochastic effects. This thesis explores a method to evaluate complex process changes within Six Sigma DMAIC process improvement to identify the most desirable outcome amongst several improvement options. A tool to perform the modeling and evaluation is developed. This process evaluation tool is verified for functionality, then is demonstrated against generic processes, a case study, and a real world Continuous Process Improvement event. The application of modeling and simulation to improve and control a process is found to be a positive return on investment under moderate complexity or continuous improvement events. The process evaluation tool is demonstrated to be accurate in prediction, scalable in complexity and fidelity, and capable of simulating a wide variety or evaluation types. Experimentation identifies the importance of understanding the evaluation criteria prior to “Measurement” in DMAIC, which increases the consistency of process improvement efforts

Strategic Approach for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure for Efficient Mobility along Highways: A Real Case Study in Spain

The Electric Vehicle (EV) market has been growing exponentially in recent years, which is why the distribution network of public charging stations will be subject to expansion and upgrading. In order to improve the public charging infrastructure, this paper aims to develop a model capable of analyzing the current situation of a stretch of highway, identifying the congestion points, created by the formation of queues at the charging points. A specific section of a highway in Spain was selected as a case study to evaluate the performance of the model, allowing for rigorous testing and thorough analysis of its performance in a real-world scenario. The first step is to define and evaluate the effects of factors affecting EV consumption, such as the slope of the road, weather conditions, and driving style. Subsequently, a simulation model is developed using the agent-based simulation software AnyLogic, which simulates the journey of a fleet of electric vehicles, taking into account the battery charging and discharging process. Based on the obtained results, the charging infrastructure is improved to minimize the total travel time of an electric vehicle on a long-distance trip

Using discrete event simulation to implement a conceptual model aiming at evaluating the performance of manufacturing lines

The assessment of an organisation's production systems is a crucial stage in the decision-making process for modifying or improving the existing systems. In this project a method of evaluation of the production lines was developed for a company in the educational toy manufacturing sector, being the focus of this project to determine the efficiency of these lines. For this purpose, it was used computer simulations as a tool to evaluate these systems, replicating the observed systems in a virtual environment through the determination and application of statistical distributions that allow mimicking the observed systems and their behaviour. Based on the models created, a set of indicators was analysed to determine which factors influenced the most the production capacity of the studied production lines. The analysis of the results revealed that the minimisation of throughput bottlenecks and their postponement downstream from the original site allows an increase in the productive capacity of the systems and consequently increase the efficiency of it. It was also observed that the use of the parameter efficiency of utilisation, provides powerful insights into the production systems by determining how the production lines are balanced.A avaliação dos sistemas de produção de uma organização é uma etapa crítica para a tomada de decisão no que diz respeito à alteração ou melhoria dos sistemas já existentes. Neste projeto foi desenvolvido um método de avaliação das linhas de produção para uma empresa do setor de produção de brinquedos educativos, sendo o foco deste projeto na determinação da eficiência das mesmas. Para tal recorreu-se ao uso de simulações, onde foi possível replicar os sistemas observados num ambiente virtual através da determinação de distribuições estatísticas que permitem mimetizar os sistemas observados e os seus comportamentos. A partir dos modelos criados um conjunto de indicadores foi analisado para determinar quais os fatores que influenciavam a capacidade produtiva das linhas de produção estudadas. Da análise dos resultados verificou-se que a minimização de estrangulamentos de produção e o seu adiamento para jusante do local original permite um aumento da capacidade produtiva dos sistemas. Verificou-se também que a utilização do parâmetro eficiência de utilização, fornece poderosas perspetivas acerca dos sistemas de produção, ao determinar de que forma as linhas de produção se encontram balanceadas

Passenger Flows in Underground Railway Stations and Platforms, MTI Report 12-43

Urban rail systems are designed to carry large volumes of people into and out of major activity centers. As a result, the stations at these major activity centers are often crowded with boarding and alighting passengers, resulting in passenger inconvenience, delays, and at times danger. This study examines the planning and analysis of station passenger queuing and flows to offer rail transit station designers and transit system operators guidance on how to best accommodate and manage their rail passengers. The objectives of the study are to: 1) Understand the particular infrastructural, operational, behavioral, and spatial factors that affect and may constrain passenger queuing and flows in different types of rail transit stations; 2) Identify, compare, and evaluate practices for efficient, expedient, and safe passenger flows in different types of station environments and during typical (rush hour) and atypical (evacuations, station maintenance/ refurbishment) situations; and 3) Compile short-, medium-, and long-term recommendations for optimizing passenger flows in different station environments

A Simulation Based Comparative Analysis of Alternatives for Tuition Assistance Organizational Structures

The military services have experienced enormous downsizing efforts in the last decade. With these initiatives, organizations have had to derive innovative ways to meet their objectives with fewer resources. An organization\u27s structure is an avenue to address these challenges within the atmosphere of a shrinking capital budget. Organizational structure changes can affect every aspect of the organization. Such an impact suggests proposals for drastic organizational changes must meet the rigors of a full analysis. The intent of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of centralization options for Air Force Tuition Assistance efforts. This thesis effort involves the development and subsequent analysis of multiple simulation models. The models provide insight into whether or not centralization will produce savings in processing times, manpower, and cost. Results show that centralization will positively impact the Tuition Assistance organization in meeting their objectives while allowing the Air Force to take advantage of efficiencies through technological advancements