Improving resilience in Critical Infrastructures through learning from past events

Modern societies are increasingly dependent on the proper functioning of Critical Infrastructures (CIs). CIs produce and distribute essential goods or services, as for power transmission systems, water treatment and distribution infrastructures, transportation systems, communication networks, nuclear power plants, and information technologies. Being resilient, where resilience denotes the capacity of a system to recover from challenges or disruptive events, becomes a key property for CIs, which are constantly exposed to threats that can undermine safety, security, and business continuity. Nowadays, a variety of approaches exists in the context of CIs’ resilience research. This dissertation starts with a systematic review based on PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) on the approaches that have a complete qualitative dimension, or that can be used as entry points for semi-quantitative analyses. The review identifies four principal dimensions of resilience referred to CIs (i.e., techno-centric, organizational, community, and urban) and discusses the related qualitative or semi-quantitative methods. The scope of the thesis emphasizes the organizational dimension, as a socio-technical construct. Accordingly, the following research question has been posed: how can learning improve resilience in an organization? Firstly, the benefits of learning in a particular CI, i.e. the supply chain in reverse logistics related to the small arms utilized by Italian Armed Forces, have been studied. Following the theory of Learning From Incidents, the theoretical model helped to elaborate a centralized information management system for the Supply Chain Management of small arms within a Business Intelligence (BI) framework, which can be the basis for an effective decision-making process, capable of increasing the systemic resilience of the supply chain itself. Secondly, the research question has been extended to another extremely topical context, i.e. the Emergency Management (EM), exploring the crisis induced learning where single-loop and double-loop learning cycles can be established regarding the behavioral perspective. Specifically, the former refers to the correction of practices within organizational plans without changing core beliefs and fundamental rules of the organization, while the latter aims at resolving incompatible organizational behavior by restructuring the norms themselves together with the associated practices or assumptions. Consequently, with the aim of ensuring high EM systems resilience, and effective single-loop and double-loop crisis induced learning at organizational level, the study examined learning opportunities that emerge through the exploration of adaptive practices necessary to face the complexity of a socio-technical work domain as the EM of Covid-19 outbreaks on Oil & Gas platforms. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been adopted to analyze the resilience of this specific socio-technical system. On this consciousness, with the intention to explore systems theoretic possibilities to model the EM system, the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) has been proposed as a qualitative method for developing a systematic understanding of adaptive practices, modelling planning and resilient behaviors and ultimately supporting crisis induced learning. After the FRAM analysis, the same EM system has also been studied adopting a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify resilience potentials of an EM procedure resulting from the adaptive practices and lessons learned by an EM organization. While the study of CIs is still an open and challenging topic, this dissertation provides methodologies and running examples on how systemic approaches may support data-driven learning to ultimately improve organizational resilience. These results, possibly extended with future research drivers, are expected to support decision-makers in their tactical and operational endeavors

Structural-Interpretive Modeling Factors Affecting the Physical and Social Resilience of Shiraz to Natural Disasters of Flood

Objective: Flood is the most important natural disaster that has caused many casualties and damages in different parts of the country. Considering the possibility of floods in Shiraz and the importance of resilience, especially against floods, this study was planned with aim to model the most important factors affecting social and physical resilience of Shiraz against floods. Methods: Statistical society were selected through purposive sampling that consists of 50 university professors, experts and managers in the field of crisis management in Shiraz. After identifying the dimensions and primary factors, they were evaluated using Delphi method and also structural-interpretive modeling (ISM) method was used in order to analyze the data. Results:Based on the Mick Mac analysis, indicators of neighborhood status (C11), location of facilities and facilities (C8), capability and effectiveness (C10) and the degree of trust and solidarity (C9) have weak influence and dependence. Indicators of collective action and cooperation (C2), practice (C4), membership in groups and social networks (C13) have high influence, power and dependence. The variables of building strength (C1), access status (C7), type of attitude (C5) are more influenced by other factors and are effective and dependent elements. Awareness indicators (C3), acquired skills (C14), acquired knowledge (C6), procurement level (C12) are among the independent (key) variables that have a great impact on the process of physical and social resilience. Conclusion: The analysis of the resilience of human and environmental systems against natural disasters such as floods and in analyzing and reducing the vulnerability of cities and neighborhoods, we should not only emphasize the physical dimension and characteristics of communities, but also pay attention to social structures and dimensions to empower citizens and prepare for natural disaster

Ports Resilience Index: Participatory Methods to Assess Resilience

Many hazard threats challenge the uninterrupted operation of the maritime transportation system across multiple temporal and spatial scales. Environmental hazard threats include hurricanes, storm surge, and sea-level rise. Resilience begins at the port, which provides the physical, economic, and social connection between sea and land transportation users. Ports function through port authorities, composed of people with decision-making abilities, which causes port resilience to be a complex process to understand. The paucity of metrics to quantify port resilience warrants other methods to study this place-specific topic. The goal of the Ports Resilience Index (PRI) project centered on the development of a qualitative resilience self-assessment tool for port authorities, using input of port practitioners. Using a participatory approach, I facilitated three rounds of expert consultation with forty-nine port practitioners across the Gulf of Mexico coast to develop the PRI. One round included pilot-testing the PRI with three port authorities. This dissertation uses qualitative methods of historical and comparative case study analyses, thematic coding of written hurricane plans, focus group discussion analyses, and participant evaluations to analyze the effectiveness of a participatory approach in engaging port stakeholders. The method to develop and complete the PRI might build capacity for resilience in port communities. Social interactions among port practitioners provided a look at the process of resilience that goes deeper than written hurricane plans but also identified challenges to resilience, including an emphasis on reactive, business-driven planning. Discussion facilitated by the PRI enhances anticipation by revealing collective perceptions of environmental risks and creating a non-competitive space to discuss risks. Completing the tool fosters on-going resilience through identification of opportunities to implement feasible resilient practices, including communication strategies and agency partnerships. The discussion-based assessment method of the PRI provides a connection between what researchers know about resilience and how we know it. A geographer’s perspective provides a solid foundation to study and understand the process of resilience at the human-environment interface. Resilient adaptability of ports to other hazards depends on flexibility in decision-making, which can be strengthened through participatory and place-based methods