6,234 research outputs found
Sparse Identification and Estimation of Large-Scale Vector AutoRegressive Moving Averages
The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the
theory of multivariate time series; however, in practice, identifiability
issues have led many authors to abandon VARMA modeling in favor of the simpler
Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. Such a practice is unfortunate since even
very simple VARMA models can have quite complicated VAR representations. We
narrow this gap with a new optimization-based approach to VARMA identification
that is built upon the principle of parsimony. Among all equivalent
data-generating models, we seek the parameterization that is "simplest" in a
certain sense. A user-specified strongly convex penalty is used to measure
model simplicity, and that same penalty is then used to define an estimator
that can be efficiently computed. We show that our estimator converges to a
parsimonious element in the set of all equivalent data-generating models, in a
double asymptotic regime where the number of component time series is allowed
to grow with sample size. Further, we derive non-asymptotic upper bounds on the
estimation error of our method relative to our specially identified target.
Novel theoretical machinery includes non-asymptotic analysis of infinite-order
VAR, elastic net estimation under a singular covariance structure of
regressors, and new concentration inequalities for quadratic forms of random
variables from Gaussian time series. We illustrate the competitive performance
of our methods in simulation and several application domains, including
macro-economic forecasting, demand forecasting, and volatility forecasting
Dynamics and sparsity in latent threshold factor models: A study in multivariate EEG signal processing
We discuss Bayesian analysis of multivariate time series with dynamic factor
models that exploit time-adaptive sparsity in model parametrizations via the
latent threshold approach. One central focus is on the transfer responses of
multiple interrelated series to underlying, dynamic latent factor processes.
Structured priors on model hyper-parameters are key to the efficacy of dynamic
latent thresholding, and MCMC-based computation enables model fitting and
analysis. A detailed case study of electroencephalographic (EEG) data from
experimental psychiatry highlights the use of latent threshold extensions of
time-varying vector autoregressive and factor models. This study explores a
class of dynamic transfer response factor models, extending prior Bayesian
modeling of multiple EEG series and highlighting the practical utility of the
latent thresholding concept in multivariate, non-stationary time series
analysis.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, link to external web site for supplementary
animated figure
A Scalable MCEM Estimator for Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Models
Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common
across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across
space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing
approaches are often (i) not scalable, (ii) designed for conditionally Gaussian
outcome data, or (iii) are limited to cross-sectional and univariate outcomes.
This paper proposes an MCEM estimation strategy for a family of latent-Gaussian
multivariate spatio-temporal models that addresses these issues. The proposed
estimator is applicable to a wide range of non-Gaussian outcomes, and
implementations for binary and count outcomes are discussed explicitly. The
methodology is illustrated on simulated data, as well as on weekly data of
IS-related events in Syrian districts.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure
Interpretable Vector AutoRegressions with Exogenous Time Series
The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of
multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by
many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX
models that incorporate the impact of unmodeled exogenous variables (X) into
the VAR. However, since the parameter space grows quadratically with the number
of time series, estimation quickly becomes challenging. While several proposals
have been made to sparsely estimate large VAR models, the estimation of large
VARX models is under-explored. Moreover, typically these sparse proposals
involve a lasso-type penalty and do not incorporate lag selection into the
estimation procedure. As a consequence, the resulting models may be difficult
to interpret. In this paper, we propose a lag-based hierarchically sparse
estimator, called "HVARX", for large VARX models. We illustrate the usefulness
of HVARX on a cross-category management marketing application. Our results show
how it provides a highly interpretable model, and improves out-of-sample
forecast accuracy compared to a lasso-type approach.Comment: Presented at NIPS 2017 Symposium on Interpretable Machine Learnin
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