Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories

Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, this leads to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this article we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and women employment.Comment: For Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 18, issue 11; 9 pages including figures and progra

To Arrange or Not: Marriage Trends in the South Asian American Community

The idea of the arranged marriage has always seemed exotic yet has fascinated the American public. Recent media coverage of arranged marriages is evident in popular periodicals such as the New York Times Online (August 17, 2000) and Newsweek (March 15, 1999). Foner highlights that the arranged marriage is an example of the continued impact of premigration cultural beliefs and social practices that South Asian immigrants have transported to the United States (Foner 1997, 964). She offers an interpretive synthesis by showing that [n]ew immigrant family patterns are shaped by cultural meanings and social practices that immigrants bring with them from their home countries as well as by social, economic, and cultural forces in the United States (Foner 2005, 157)

Econometric flexibility in microsimulation: an age-centred regression approach

This paper describes a strategy for estimating predictive equations that has been shown to work well in microsimulation modelling. The technique, referred to here as ?age-centred regression,? is particularly useful when the available data set for estimating a model equation is limited and the marginal effect of one or more explanatory variables might be expected to vary systematically by age. The examples used here to describe how age-centring works are taken from the labour supply equations in the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) dynamic microsimulation model. By switching from a traditional single-equation approach to age-centred regression, we show that marginal effects of independent variables can vary significantly across age groups. The comparison also reveals that improvements in mean predictions by age can be achieved with little if any loss in statistical precision of coefficient estimates.age-centred regression; heterogeneity; spline; kernel

Repartnering: the relevance of parenthood and gender to cohabitation and remarriage among the formerly married

This paper is an exploratory analysis of the impact of current and anticipated parenthood on cohabitation and remarriage among those formerly living in marriage-type relationships. The focus on children is embedded within a broader analysis of repartnering which takes account of other factors, including gender. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are used, with a multivariate analysis of repartnering patterns, using data from the General Household Survey, being complementedby in-depth interview data examining the attitudes of the formerly married to future relationships. The paper demonstrates that parenthood has a statistically significant effect on the likelihood of formerly married women repartnering, with a higher number of children being associated with a lower probability of repartnering. The presence of children can work against repartnering in a variety of ways. Children place demands on their parents and can deter or object to potential partners. Parents may see their parental role as more important than, and a barrier to, new relationships. However, mothers are typically looking for partners for themselves rather than fathers for their children. Among formerly married people without children, the desire to become a parent encourages repartnering. The paper concludes that parenthood should be a key consideration in analyses of repartnering

iAge en langer zelfstandig wonen

Een posterpresentatie van Hieke van der Kloet over de ICT behoefte van 50-plussers om zo lang mogelijk zelfstandig te kunnen blijven wonen in de eigen woning. De eerste resultaten van haar onderzoek zijn te lezen. Net als de eerste conclusies en aanbevelingen

Behavior of aircraft antiskid breaking systems on dry and wet runway surfaces: A slip-ratio-controlled system with ground speed reference from unbraked nose wheel

An experimental investigation was conducted at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility to study the braking and cornering response of a slip ratio controlled aircraft antiskid braking system with ground speed reference derived from an unbraked nose wheel. The investigation, conducted on dry and wet runway surfaces, utilized one main gear wheel, brake, and tire assembly of a DC-9 series 10 airplane. During maximum braking, the average ratio of the drag force friction coefficient developed by the antiskid system to the maximum drag force friction coefficient available was higher on the dry surface than on damp and flooded surfaces, and was reduced with lighter vertical loads, higher yaw angles, and when new tire treads were replaced by worn treads. Similarly, the average ratio of side force friction coefficient developed by the tire under antiskid control to the maximum side force friction coefficient available to a freely rolling yawed tire decreased with increasing yaw angle, generally increased with ground speed, and decreased when tires with new treads were replaced by those with worn treads

Ethnic Conversions : Family, Community, Women, and Kinwork

According to the straight-line theory of assimilation, ethnic groups by the third or fourth generation should be entirely assimilated into mainstream society and should identify themselves as Americans. Yet there has been a resurgence of ethnicity among white ethnics in the United States that has led to a renewed interest in particular ethnic groups and their cultures. Third- and fourth-generation European Americans claim an ethnic identity even though their ties to their ancestral homeland may be tenuous. Lithuanian Americans in Kansas City, Kansas, in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s would seem to provide support for the straight-line theory of assimilation, yet since the 1980s they have reconstituted themselves through the Lithuanians of America organization and are experiencing a renewal of their ethnic identity. The Lithuanian American community in Seattle, Washington, also experienced ebbs and flows in the activism and unity of its members. The community was active at the turn of the twentieth century, next revitalized by Lithuanian emigres following World War II, and then became active again in the late 1970s after a decade of inaction. Members of the two groups were given questionnaires in the early 1990s to address the ethnic identity fluctuations as well as the role of non-ethnics in the organizations. One of the more exciting findings from the surveys and from participant observation was the extensive role of ethnic converts in the Kansas City organization, and their lesser (but still significant) role in the Seattle Lithuanian-American community

A framework for health care planning and control

Rising expenditures spur health care organizations to organize their processes more efficiently and effectively. Unfortunately, health care planning and control lags far behind manufacturing planning and control. Successful manufacturing planning and control concepts can not be directly copied, because of the unique nature of health care delivery. We analyze existing planning and control concepts or frameworks for health care operations management, and find that they do not properly address various important planning and control problems. We conclude that they only focus on hospitals, and are too narrow, focusing on a single managerial area, such as resource capacity planning, or ignoring hierarchical levels. We propose a modern framework for health care planning and control. Our framework integrates all managerial areas involved in health care delivery operations and all hierarchical levels of control, to ensure completeness and coherence of responsibilities for every managerial area. The framework can be used to structure the various planning and control functions, and their interaction. It is applicable broadly, to an individual department, an entire health care organization, and to a complete supply chain of cure and care providers. The framework can be used to identify and position various types of managerial problems, to demarcate the scope of organization interventions, and to facilitate a dialogue between clinical staff and managers. We illustrate the application of the framework with examples