A New Procedure For Multiple Testing Of Econometric Models

A significant role for hypothesis testing in econometrics involves diagnostic checking. When checking the adequacy of a chosen model, researchers typically employ a range of diagnostic tests, each of which is designed to detect a particular form of model inadequacy. A major problem is how best to control the overall probability of rejecting the model when it is true and multiple test statistics are used. This paper presents a new multiple testing procedure, which involves checking whether the calculated values of the diagnostic statistics are consistent with the postulated model being true. This is done through a combination of bootstrapping to obtain a multivariate kernel density estimator of the joint density of the test statistics under the null hypothesis and Monte Carlo simulations to obtain a p value using this kernel density. We prove that under some regularity conditions, the estimated p value of our test procedure is a consistent estimate of the true p value. The proposed testing procedure is applied to tests for autocorrelation in an observed time series, for normality, and for model misspecification through the information matrix. We find that our testing procedure has correct or nearly correct sizes and good powers, particular for more complicated testing problems. We believe it is the first good method for calculating the overall p value for a vector of test statistics based on simulation.Bootstrapping, consistency, information matrix test, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, multivariate kernel density, normality, serial correlation, test vector

Bayesian Methods for Statistical Analysis

Bayesian methods for statistical analysis is a book on statistical methods for analysing a wide variety of data. The book consists of 12 chapters, starting with basic concepts and covering numerous topics, including Bayesian estimation, decision theory, prediction, hypothesis testing, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, finite population inference, biased sampling and nonignorable nonresponse. The book contains many exercises, all with worked solutions, including complete computer code. It is suitable for self-study or a semester-long course, with three hours of lectures and one tutorial per week for 13 weeks

Markov chain Monte Carlo tests for designed experiments

We consider conditional exact tests of factor effects in designed experiments for discrete response variables. Similarly to the analysis of contingency tables, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method can be used for performing exact tests, when large-sample approximations are poor and the enumeration of the conditional sample space is infeasible. For designed experiments with a single observation for each run, we formulate log-linear or logistic models and consider a connected Markov chain over an appropriate sample space. In particular, we investigate fractional factorial designs with $2^{p-q}$ runs, noting correspondences to the models for $2^{p-q}$ contingency tables

eco: R Package for Ecological Inference in 2x2 Tables

eco is a publicly available R package that implements the Bayesian and likelihood methods proposed in Imai, Lu, and Strauss (2008b) for ecological inference in 2 X 2 tables as well as the method of bounds introduced by (Duncan and Davis'53). The package fits both parametric and nonparametric models using either the Expectation-Maximization algorithms (for likelihood models) or the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (for Bayesian models). For all models, the individual-level data can be directly incorporated into the estimation whenever such data are available. Along with in-sample and out-of-sample predictions, the package also provides a functionality which allows one to quantify the effect of data aggregation on parameter estimation and hypothesis testing under the parametric likelihood models. This paper illustrates the usage of eco with several real data examples that are also part of the package.