Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Data-Driven Forecasting of High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems with Long Short-Term Memory Networks

We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in their reduced order space and are shown to be an effective set of nonlinear approximators of their attractor. We demonstrate the forecasting performance of the LSTM and compare it with Gaussian processes (GPs) in time series obtained from the Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and a prototype climate model. The LSTM networks outperform the GPs in short-term forecasting accuracy in all applications considered. A hybrid architecture, extending the LSTM with a mean stochastic model (MSM-LSTM), is proposed to ensure convergence to the invariant measure. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of LSTM networks.Comment: 31 page

Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach

As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally, the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Kernel methods for detecting coherent structures in dynamical data

We illustrate relationships between classical kernel-based dimensionality reduction techniques and eigendecompositions of empirical estimates of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) operators associated with dynamical systems. In particular, we show that kernel canonical correlation analysis (CCA) can be interpreted in terms of kernel transfer operators and that it can be obtained by optimizing the variational approach for Markov processes (VAMP) score. As a result, we show that coherent sets of particle trajectories can be computed by kernel CCA. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach with several examples, namely the well-known Bickley jet, ocean drifter data, and a molecular dynamics problem with a time-dependent potential. Finally, we propose a straightforward generalization of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) called coherent mode decomposition (CMD). Our results provide a generic machine learning approach to the computation of coherent sets with an objective score that can be used for cross-validation and the comparison of different methods

Decomposition of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Using Koopman Gramians

In this paper we propose a new Koopman operator approach to the decomposition of nonlinear dynamical systems using Koopman Gramians. We introduce the notion of an input-Koopman operator, and show how input-Koopman operators can be used to cast a nonlinear system into the classical state-space form, and identify conditions under which input and state observable functions are well separated. We then extend an existing method of dynamic mode decomposition for learning Koopman operators from data known as deep dynamic mode decomposition to systems with controls or disturbances. We illustrate the accuracy of the method in learning an input-state separable Koopman operator for an example system, even when the underlying system exhibits mixed state-input terms. We next introduce a nonlinear decomposition algorithm, based on Koopman Gramians, that maximizes internal subsystem observability and disturbance rejection from unwanted noise from other subsystems. We derive a relaxation based on Koopman Gramians and multi-way partitioning for the resulting NP-hard decomposition problem. We lastly illustrate the proposed algorithm with the swing dynamics for an IEEE 39-bus system.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to IEEE 2018 AC