Bisimulation, Logic and Reachability Analysis for Markovian Systems

In the recent years, there have been a large amount of investigations on safety verification of uncertain continuous systems. In engineering and applied mathematics, this verification is called stochastic reachability analysis, while in computer science this is called probabilistic model checking (PMC). In the context of this work, we consider the two terms interchangeable. It is worthy to note that PMC has been mostly considered for discrete systems. Therefore, there is an issue of improving the application of computer science techniques in the formal verification of continuous stochastic systems. We present a new probabilistic logic of model theoretic nature. The terms of this logic express reachability properties and the logic formulas express statistical properties of terms. Moreover, we show that this logic characterizes a bisimulation relation for continuous time continuous space Markov processes. For this logic we define a new semantics using state space symmetries. This is a recent concept that was successfully used in model checking. Using this semantics, we prove a full abstraction result. Furthermore, we prove a result that can be used in model checking, namely that the bisimulation preserves the probabilities of the reachable sets

A generalized risk approach to path inference based on hidden Markov models

Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper re-examines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD), have long been around, other path estimators, or decoders, have been either only hinted at or applied more recently and in dedicated applications generally unfamiliar to the statistical learning community. Over a decade ago, however, a family of algorithmically defined decoders aiming to hybridize the two standard ones was proposed (Brushe et al., 1998). The present paper gives a careful analysis of this hybridization approach, identifies several problems and issues with it and other previously proposed approaches, and proposes practical resolutions of those. Furthermore, simple modifications of the classical criteria for hidden path recognition are shown to lead to a new class of decoders. Dynamic programming algorithms to compute these decoders in the usual forward-backward manner are presented. A particularly interesting subclass of such estimators can be also viewed as hybrids of the MAP and PD estimators. Similar to previously proposed MAP-PD hybrids, the new class is parameterized by a small number of tunable parameters. Unlike their algorithmic predecessors, the new risk-based decoders are more clearly interpretable, and, most importantly, work "out of the box" in practice, which is demonstrated on some real bioinformatics tasks and data. Some further generalizations and applications are discussed in conclusion.Comment: Section 5: corrected denominators of the scaled beta variables (pp. 27-30), => corrections in claims 1, 3, Prop. 12, bottom of Table 1. Decoder (49), Corol. 14 are generalized to handle 0 probabilities. Notation is more closely aligned with (Bishop, 2006). Details are inserted in eqn-s (43); the positivity assumption in Prop. 11 is explicit. Fixed typing errors in equation (41), Example

On the connections between PCTL and Dynamic Programming

Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL) is a well-known modal logic which has become a standard for expressing temporal properties of finite-state Markov chains in the context of automated model checking. In this paper, we give a definition of PCTL for noncountable-space Markov chains, and we show that there is a substantial affinity between certain of its operators and problems of Dynamic Programming. After proving some uniqueness properties of the solutions to the latter, we conclude the paper with two examples to show that some recovery strategies in practical applications, which are naturally stated as reach-avoid problems, can be actually viewed as particular cases of PCTL formulas.Comment: Submitte

Hybrid Behaviour of Markov Population Models

We investigate the behaviour of population models written in Stochastic Concurrent Constraint Programming (sCCP), a stochastic extension of Concurrent Constraint Programming. In particular, we focus on models from which we can define a semantics of sCCP both in terms of Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) and in terms of Stochastic Hybrid Systems, in which some populations are approximated continuously, while others are kept discrete. We will prove the correctness of the hybrid semantics from the point of view of the limiting behaviour of a sequence of models for increasing population size. More specifically, we prove that, under suitable regularity conditions, the sequence of CTMC constructed from sCCP programs for increasing population size converges to the hybrid system constructed by means of the hybrid semantics. We investigate in particular what happens for sCCP models in which some transitions are guarded by boolean predicates or in the presence of instantaneous transitions