Economic Outlook Symposium: summary of 2009 results and forecasts for 2010

According to participants in the Chicago Fed’s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, solid economic growth is forecasted for the nation in 2010, following a very sharp contraction during 2008 and the first half of 2009; inflation is expected to increase in 2010; and the unemployment rate is predicted to peak early in 2010 and edge lower throughout the year.

The American consumer: reforming, or just resting?

American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E2

Forecasting the Inland Empire\u27s Economic Recovery

The Inland Empire -Riverside and San Bernardino Counties - was one of the hardest hit areas in all of the United States during the Great Recession. Home prices have declined over 50%, significantly more than the 25% decline in the surrounding Los Angeles County, and housing starts have declined to over 90% from 2005. The Inland Empire has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US at 14.8%. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery for the Inland Empire. Employing univariate forecasts along with VAR(12) forecasts, focusing on housing starts and unemployment rates as the underlying variables, we find that there is little hope for a recovery over the next 3 years. The model predicts unemployment to either rise even more or, at best, remain stagnant. Housing starts are predicted to remain constant over the next three years

Texas economy shakes off rough ride in 2009

While conditions remain weak, it appears that the Texas economy is on a steadier course after a rough ride last year. Recent economic data and anecdotal evidence suggest the worst of the state's economic woes may be over. Activity is growing in several sectors. The state maintains its traditional advantages--relatively low living costs, modest taxes, a central location and an attractive business climate. Barring further setbacks, the Texas economy should pick up steam in 2010 and beyond.Economic conditions - Texas ; Global financial crisis ; Recessions ; Economic indicators

Outlook and appraisal [February 2010]

The Scottish economy is poised to come out of recession. But there is still uncertainty whether the exit will have occurred in the fourth quarter of last year as it did in the UK economy, all be it weakly. The UK economy went into recession one quarter ahead of Scotland and it may be that Scotland will come out of recession one quarter later than the UK

Recession catches rural America

As the recession intensified in 2008, rural economies held firm. Through the first half of the year, strong commodity prices supported robust farm incomes and contributed to relatively stronger gains on Main Street. Moreover, the housing correction was less intense than in urban areas, and the financial crisis was less severe than on Wall Street. ; While these factors shielded the rural economy from the worst of the recession, rural America was not immune. The foundations of rural economic strength in 2008--high commodity prices, robust export activity, and rising ethanol demand--were crumbling. Consequently, the booming farm economy began to slow, and, following national trends, the nonfarm economy continued to falter. ; Henderson and Akers review the state of the rural economy and explore how the recession could affect the rural economy in 2009. They suggest that a rural rebound will rest on whether the fiscal and monetary stimulus packages spark demand for rural goods and services.

Forecasts of the Scottish economy [October 2013]

The Scottish economy has shown signs of growth through the first half of 2012, exceeding our expectations so far through the year and has grown slightly less than the UK economy as a whole in this period. In part, this appears due to higher than expected contribution from household spending growth. While survey indicators suggest firms are optimistic about prospects for the second half of the year, we are uncertain about the extent to which a recovery on the back of households facing slow income growth is sustainable. In particular, the recent evidence on the Scottish housing market suggests that any wealth effect from increasing house asset prices is not being felt across all regions of the UK. Recent Scottish export figures show the importance of a swift and positive resolution of the (on-going at time of writing) future of the Grangemouth chemicals and refinery facility for the Scottish economy