Advanced Nonlinear Dynamics of Population Biology and Epidemiology

abstract: Modern biology and epidemiology have become more and more driven by the need of mathematical models and theory to elucidate general phenomena arising from the complexity of interactions on the numerous spatial, temporal, and hierarchical scales at which biological systems operate and diseases spread. Epidemic modeling and study of disease spread such as gonorrhea, HIV/AIDS, BSE, foot and mouth disease, measles, and rubella have had an impact on public health policy around the world which includes the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. A wide variety of modeling approaches are involved in building up suitable models. Ordinary differential equation models, partial differential equation models, delay differential equation models, stochastic differential equation models, difference equation models, and nonautonomous models are examples of modeling approaches that are useful and capable of providing applicable strategies for the coexistence and conservation of endangered species, to prevent the overexploitation of natural resources, to control disease’s outbreak, and to make optimal dosing polices for the drug administration, and so forth.View the article as published at https://www.hindawi.com/journals/aaa/2014/214514

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Dynamics of a two prey and one predator system with indirect effect

Altres ajuts: Consellería de Educación, Universidade e Formación Profesional (Xunta de Galicia), grant ED431C 2019/10We study a population model with two preys and one predator, considering a Holling type II functional response for the interaction between first prey and predator and taking into account indirect effect of predation. We perform the stability analysis of equilibria and study the possibility of Hopf bifurcation. We also include a detailed discussion on the problem of persistence. Several numerical simulations are provided in order to illustrate the theoretical results of the paper

Intrinsic noise and two-dimensional maps: Quasicycles, quasiperiodicity, and chaos

We develop a formalism to describe the discrete-time dynamics of systems containing an arbitrary number of interacting species. The individual-based model, which forms our starting point, is described by a Markov chain, which in the limit of large system sizes is shown to be very well-approximated by a Fokker-Planck-like equation, or equivalently by a set of stochastic difference equations. This formalism is applied to the specific case of two species: one predator species and its prey species. Quasi-cycles --- stochastic cycles sustained and amplified by the demographic noise --- previously found in continuous-time predator-prey models are shown to exist, and their behavior predicted from a linear noise analysis is shown to be in very good agreement with simulations. The effects of the noise on other attractors in the corresponding deterministic map, such as periodic cycles, quasiperiodicity and chaos, are also investigated.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figure

Hopf-pitchfork bifurcation of coupled van der Pol oscillator with delay

In this paper, the Hopf-pitchfork bifurcation of coupled van der Pol with delay is studied. The interaction coefficient and time delay are taken as two bifurcation parameters. Firstly, the normal form is gotten by performing a center manifold reduction and using the normal form theory developed by Faria and Magalhães. Secondly, bifurcation diagrams and phase portraits are given through analyzing the unfolding structure. Finally, numerical simulations are used to support theoretical analysis

Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator–prey system

Predator–prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey1,2,3,4. However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods5,6,7,8 and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19. Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator–prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator–prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator–prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events

A Mathematical Modelling Approach for a Past-Dependent Prey-Predator System

A memory dependent prey-predator model incorporating Allee effect in prey is analysed. For a small and high values of memory rate, the dynamical changes in the prey and predator densities are demonstrated. The equilibria of the proposed model and the local stability analysis corresponding to each equilibrium are presented. The variables of prey and predator species with respect to memory rate are investigated and the existence of the Hopf bifurcation is shown. The analytical part of this paper is supported with detailed numerical simulations