Numerical Solutions of ODEs using Volterra Series

We propose a numerical approach for solving systems of nonautonomous ordinary di®erential equations under suitable assumptions. This approach is based on expansion of the solutions by Volterra series and allows to estimate the accuracy of the approximation. Also we can solve some ordinary di®erential equations for which the classical numerical methods fail

The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model error

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability

Approximate Dynamic Programming via Sum of Squares Programming

We describe an approximate dynamic programming method for stochastic control problems on infinite state and input spaces. The optimal value function is approximated by a linear combination of basis functions with coefficients as decision variables. By relaxing the Bellman equation to an inequality, one obtains a linear program in the basis coefficients with an infinite set of constraints. We show that a recently introduced method, which obtains convex quadratic value function approximations, can be extended to higher order polynomial approximations via sum of squares programming techniques. An approximate value function can then be computed offline by solving a semidefinite program, without having to sample the infinite constraint. The policy is evaluated online by solving a polynomial optimization problem, which also turns out to be convex in some cases. We experimentally validate the method on an autonomous helicopter testbed using a 10-dimensional helicopter model.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to the 2013 European Control Conference, Zurich, Switzerlan