13,251 research outputs found
IDENTIFICATION OF COVER SONGS USING INFORMATION THEORETIC MEASURES OF SIMILARITY
13 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. v3: Accepted version13 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. v3: Accepted version13 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. v3: Accepted versio
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Predictability of Cyberattacks
Y.C.L. was supported by Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under grant no. FA9550-10-1-0083 and Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-14-1-0504. S.X. was supported by Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-13-1-0141. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD
Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package
We introduce the \texttt{pyunicorn} (Pythonic unified complex network and
recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and
combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network
theory and nonlinear time series analysis. \texttt{pyunicorn} is a fully
object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language
Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate
networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience
representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets
of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced
methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial
networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics or network
surrogates. Additionally, \texttt{pyunicorn} provides insights into the
nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time
series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification
analysis (RQA), recurrence networks, visibility graphs and construction of
surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is
outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figure
Spatiotemporal patterns and predictability of cyberattacks
A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is
whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom
favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the
modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive
data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a
relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover
intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term
"spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing
{\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main
patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and
stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing
almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection
scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of
unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a
consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a
number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov
state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to
characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding
is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially
paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing
large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches
Predicting evolution and visualizing high-dimensional fitness landscapes
The tempo and mode of an adaptive process is strongly determined by the
structure of the fitness landscape that underlies it. In order to be able to
predict evolutionary outcomes (even on the short term), we must know more about
the nature of realistic fitness landscapes than we do today. For example, in
order to know whether evolution is predominantly taking paths that move upwards
in fitness and along neutral ridges, or else entails a significant number of
valley crossings, we need to be able to visualize these landscapes: we must
determine whether there are peaks in the landscape, where these peaks are
located with respect to one another, and whether evolutionary paths can connect
them. This is a difficult task because genetic fitness landscapes (as opposed
to those based on traits) are high-dimensional, and tools for visualizing such
landscapes are lacking. In this contribution, we focus on the predictability of
evolution on rugged genetic fitness landscapes, and determine that peaks in
such landscapes are highly clustered: high peaks are predominantly close to
other high peaks. As a consequence, the valleys separating such peaks are
shallow and narrow, such that evolutionary trajectories towards the highest
peak in the landscape can be achieved via a series of valley crossingsComment: 12 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "Recent Advances in the Theory and
Application of Fitness Landscapes" (A. Engelbrecht and H. Richter, eds.).
Springer Series in Emergence, Complexity, and Computation, 201
Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state
Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly
correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is
that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different
stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated
behaviour during trend reversals dominated by the pairwise component. In
particular, these events are predicted with high significant accuracy by the
ensemble's instantaneous state.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figure
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