SCALING REINFORCEMENT LEARNING THROUGH FEUDAL MULTI-AGENT HIERARCHY

Militaries conduct wargames for training, planning, and research purposes. Artificial intelligence (AI) can improve military wargaming by reducing costs, speeding up the decision-making process, and offering new insights. Previous researchers explored using reinforcement learning (RL) for wargaming based on the successful use of RL for other human competitive games. While previous research has demonstrated that an RL agent can generate combat behavior, those experiments have been limited to small-scale wargames. This thesis investigates the feasibility and acceptability of -scaling hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) to support integrating AI into large military wargames. Additionally, this thesis also investigates potential complications that arise when replacing the opposing force with an intelligent agent by exploring the ways in which an intelligent agent can cause a wargame to fail. The resources required to train a feudal multi-agent hierarchy (FMH) and a standard RL agent and their effectiveness are compared in increasingly complicated wargames. While FMH fails to demonstrate the performance required for large wargames, it offers insight for future HRL research. Finally, the Department of Defense verification, validation, and accreditation process is proposed as a method to ensure that any future AI application applied to wargames are suitable.Lieutenant Colonel, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Bayesian Safe Policy Learning with Chance Constrained Optimization: Application to Military Security Assessment during the Vietnam War

Algorithmic and data-driven decisions and recommendations are commonly used in high-stakes decision-making settings such as criminal justice, medicine, and public policy. We investigate whether it would have been possible to improve a security assessment algorithm employed during the Vietnam War, using outcomes measured immediately after its introduction in late 1969. This empirical application raises several methodological challenges that frequently arise in high-stakes algorithmic decision-making. First, before implementing a new algorithm, it is essential to characterize and control the risk of yielding worse outcomes than the existing algorithm. Second, the existing algorithm is deterministic, and learning a new algorithm requires transparent extrapolation. Third, the existing algorithm involves discrete decision tables that are common but difficult to optimize over. To address these challenges, we introduce the Average Conditional Risk (ACRisk), which first quantifies the risk that a new algorithmic policy leads to worse outcomes for subgroups of individual units and then averages this over the distribution of subgroups. We also propose a Bayesian policy learning framework that maximizes the posterior expected value while controlling the posterior expected ACRisk. This framework separates the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from policy optimization, enabling flexible estimation of effects and optimization over complex policy classes. We characterize the resulting chance-constrained optimization problem as a constrained linear programming problem. Our analysis shows that compared to the actual algorithm used during the Vietnam War, the learned algorithm assesses most regions as more secure and emphasizes economic and political factors over military factors.Comment: 40 pages, 19 figure

Survey on Evaluation Methods for Dialogue Systems

In this paper we survey the methods and concepts developed for the evaluation of dialogue systems. Evaluation is a crucial part during the development process. Often, dialogue systems are evaluated by means of human evaluations and questionnaires. However, this tends to be very cost and time intensive. Thus, much work has been put into finding methods, which allow to reduce the involvement of human labour. In this survey, we present the main concepts and methods. For this, we differentiate between the various classes of dialogue systems (task-oriented dialogue systems, conversational dialogue systems, and question-answering dialogue systems). We cover each class by introducing the main technologies developed for the dialogue systems and then by presenting the evaluation methods regarding this class

Deep learning for video game playing

In this article, we review recent Deep Learning advances in the context of how they have been applied to play different types of video games such as first-person shooters, arcade games, and real-time strategy games. We analyze the unique requirements that different game genres pose to a deep learning system and highlight important open challenges in the context of applying these machine learning methods to video games, such as general game playing, dealing with extremely large decision spaces and sparse rewards