Gross domestic product: December 2013 quarter

New Zealand\u27s gross domestic product was up 0.9 percent in the December 2013 quarter, following a revised 1.2 percent rise in the September quarter. Key facts Gross domestic product (GDP): Economic activity increased 0.9 percent in the December 2013 quarter. Manufacturing (up 2.1 percent) and wholesale trade (up 3.2 percent) were the main drivers this quarter. Business services (down 2.1 percent) and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (down 2.0 percent) partly offset the growth. Economic activity for the year ended December 2013 was up 2.7 percent. Expenditure on gross domestic product: The expenditure measure of GDP was up 0.6 percent in the December 2013 quarter. Household consumption expenditure (up 1.3 percent) and exports (up 3.1 percent) were the main drivers of this rise. Inventories were run down by $18 million, due to manufacturing inventories being run down. Investment was up by 0.4 percent, driven by an increase in plant, machinery, and equipment. For the year ended December 2013, expenditure on GDP was up 2.5 percent

Potential output growth in several industrialised countries: a comparison

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies —Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States— for the period 1991-2004. The main estimates rely on a structural approach where output of the whole economy is described by a Cobb-Douglas function. This framework enables us to take temporal considerations into account, depending on the assumed volatility of potential output. Moreover, this study presents two original features, in other words, the construction of consistent and homogenous capital stock series, and long-run estimates including capital-deepening effects based on a stable capital/output ratio in value terms, whereas standard estimations assume a stable ratio in volume terms. Lastly, we use univariate methods as a benchmark. Even though the final estimates are obviously sensitive to each method and the assumptions made for each of them, this paper might help to understand why some economies remained below their potential growth rate during the recent period by identifying the sources of long-run potential growth. JEL Classification: C51, E32, O11, O47age of equipments, potential growth, production function, total factor productivity

Quarterly Economic Commentary Winter 2019

No Abstract

European economic outlook : general report presented at the AIECE meeting in Paris, May 9 - 11, 2001

In the spring 2001, the world economy is in a delicate situation. The vigorous growth momentum that prevailed in the recovery in 1999 and into 2000 is clearly gone. In the second half of 2000, global growth decelerated rapidly. In contrast to the last downturn of the world economy in 1997/98, the deceleration originated in the industrial countries, where growth rates were more or less cut in half compared to the first half of the year and the OECD leading indicator declined rapidly (Figure 1.1). Major factors behind the slowdown were lagged effects of monetary tightening and the pronounced and sustained rise in oil prices. It has to be noted, however, that the loss of momentum was substantially larger than expected by most forecasters, including the AIECE institutes in fall of last year, although oil prices behaved largely as expected. The deceleration of activity was particularly pronounced in the IT sector, and the substantial weakening of demand for electronics equipment and IT consumer goods went in tandem with a dramatic decline in the price of tech stocks on a global scale. Indications that the global economy is at the brink of recession are, however, not conclusive. In most countries, business climate and consumer confidence indicators are still at relatively high levels despite the fact that they have fallen over recent months. This is true even in the United States, where the deterioration of indicators has been most pronounced, at least as consumer confidence is concerned --

Monthly economic review: May 2014

The Monthly Economic Review is an overview of the New Zealand economy. It includes the latest data on New Zealand’s economic growth, unemployment, inflation, merchandise trade and balance of payments figures, along with certain financial data (such as the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate). The unemployment rate, economic growth and central bank interest rates for several of our main OECD trading partners are also included. Each publication highlights a specific topic of interest. The Monthly Economic Review is produced eleven times per year. Recent data and events New Zealand’s unemployment rate remained at six percent in the March 2014 quarter, with a 0.9 percent rise in both employment and the labour force over the quarter. The labour force participation rate, at 69.3 percent, rose to its highest level since the survey commenced in the 1980s. There was an increase in both full-time and part-time employment, with full-time employment rising by 1.1 percent over the quarter and parttime employment rising by 0.3 percent. New Zealand’s unemployment rate was the 11th lowest in the OECD. Inflation was 0.3 percent in the March 2014 quarter, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 1.5 percent in the year to the March quarter. In the March quarter, an 11.3 percent rise in the excise duty on tobacco and tobacco products from 1 January 2014 was a significant driver to higher consumer prices. Costs associated with the purchase of newly built houses rose by 1.2 percent. Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, lifted the official cash rate by a further 25 basis points to three percent in April. This followed the commencement of a tightening in monetary policy in March, where the official cash rate was also lifted by 25 basis points. In the latest media release, the Governor commented that economic activity has gained considerable momentum, reducing spare capacity within the economy, and leading to inflationary pressures. This has been offset by a higher exchange rate, which has resulted in lower tradables inflation. The exchange rate on a trade weighted basis has reached a new peak since it was floated. During the month of April, the trade weighted index (TWI) averaged 80.2 index points. The Reserve Bank considers the exchange rate to be overvalued. The Governor commented that the Bank has the policy option of intervening in the currency if it thought the exchange rate was significantly out of line with economic fundamentals

African financing needs in the 1990s

This paper discusses the magnitude of external resources that sub-Saharan Africa may require during the 1990s. There can be no firm projections because requirements are affected both by the growth and efficiency targets chosen and by a wide range of factors, both internal and external to sub-Saharan Africa, which often interact to reinforce or offset one another. However, the specific projects provided by this paper offer a point of departure for further discussions. It also provides a qualitative framework for considering how various factors affect resource requirements. The conceptual framework used in this paper for estimating external resource requirements is based essentially on the two-gap model, in which the gap between domestic savings and gross investment must equal the difference between imports and exports, which is financed by external capital or foreign savings. To provide a context for the discussions, this paper starts with a section on the economics history and evolution of sub-Saharan Africa. A section on savings, investment and efficiency of capital follows, dealing with the feasibility of achieving the desired growth targets, the policy instruments available to attain them, and the policy reforms that African countries should implement to boost the demand for investment as well as private and public savings. The final section analyzes the external resource requirements and discusses implications for other related economic and financial variables.Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation