Grid Global Behavior Prediction

Complexity has always been one of the most important issues in distributed computing. From the first clusters to grid and now cloud computing, dealing correctly and efficiently with system complexity is the key to taking technology a step further. In this sense, global behavior modeling is an innovative methodology aimed at understanding the grid behavior. The main objective of this methodology is to synthesize the grid's vast, heterogeneous nature into a simple but powerful behavior model, represented in the form of a single, abstract entity, with a global state. Global behavior modeling has proved to be very useful in effectively managing grid complexity but, in many cases, deeper knowledge is needed. It generates a descriptive model that could be greatly improved if extended not only to explain behavior, but also to predict it. In this paper we present a prediction methodology whose objective is to define the techniques needed to create global behavior prediction models for grid systems. This global behavior prediction can benefit grid management, specially in areas such as fault tolerance or job scheduling. The paper presents experimental results obtained in real scenarios in order to validate this approach

Management and Control of Domestic Smart Grid Technology

Emerging new technologies like distributed generation, distributed storage, and demand-side load management will change the way we consume and produce energy. These techniques enable the possibility to reduce the greenhouse effect and improve grid stability by optimizing energy streams. By smartly applying future energy production, consumption, and storage techniques, a more energy-efficient electricity supply chain can be achieved. In this paper a three-step control methodology is proposed to manage the cooperation between these technologies, focused on domestic energy streams. In this approach, (global) objectives like peak shaving or forming a virtual power plant can be achieved without harming the comfort of residents. As shown in this work, using good predictions, in advance planning and real-time control of domestic appliances, a better matching of demand and supply can be achieved.\ud \u

Quantification of errors in large-eddy simulations of a spatially-evolving mixing layer

A stochastic approach based on generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) is used to quantify the error in Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) of a spatially-evolving mixing layer flow and its sensitivity to different simulation parameters, viz. the grid stretching in the streamwise and lateral directions and the subgrid scale model constant ($C_S$). The error is evaluated with respect to the results of a highly resolved LES (HRLES) and for different quantities of interest, namely the mean streamwise velocity, the momentum thickness and the shear stress. A typical feature of the considered spatially evolving flow is the progressive transition from a laminar regime, highly dependent on the inlet conditions, to a fully-developed turbulent one. Therefore the computational domain is divided in two different zones (\textit{inlet dependent} and \textit{fully turbulent}) and the gPC error analysis is carried out for these two zones separately. An optimization of the parameters is also carried out for both these zones. For all the considered quantities, the results point out that the error is mainly governed by the value of the $C_S$ constant. At the end of the inlet-dependent zone a strong coupling between the normal stretching ratio and the $C_S$ value is observed. The error sensitivity to the parameter values is significantly larger in the inlet-dependent upstream region; however, low error values can be obtained in this region for all the considered physical quantities by an ad-hoc tuning of the parameters. Conversely, in the turbulent regime the error is globally lower and less sensitive to the parameter variations, but it is more difficult to find a set of parameter values leading to optimal results for all the analyzed physical quantities

Sub-grid modelling for two-dimensional turbulence using neural networks

In this investigation, a data-driven turbulence closure framework is introduced and deployed for the sub-grid modelling of Kraichnan turbulence. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the fact that snapshots from high-fidelity numerical data are used to inform artificial neural networks for predicting the turbulence source term through localized grid-resolved information. In particular, our proposed methodology successfully establishes a map between inputs given by stencils of the vorticity and the streamfunction along with information from two well-known eddy-viscosity kernels. Through this we predict the sub-grid vorticity forcing in a temporally and spatially dynamic fashion. Our study is both a-priori and a-posteriori in nature. In the former, we present an extensive hyper-parameter optimization analysis in addition to learning quantification through probability density function based validation of sub-grid predictions. In the latter, we analyse the performance of our framework for flow evolution in a classical decaying two-dimensional turbulence test case in the presence of errors related to temporal and spatial discretization. Statistical assessments in the form of angle-averaged kinetic energy spectra demonstrate the promise of the proposed methodology for sub-grid quantity inference. In addition, it is also observed that some measure of a-posteriori error must be considered during optimal model selection for greater accuracy. The results in this article thus represent a promising development in the formalization of a framework for generation of heuristic-free turbulence closures from data

Evaluating Modeled Intra- to Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney \u3cem\u3eZ\u3c/em\u3e Statistics

An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets to a Mann–Whitney U statistic, and then normalizes the U statistic into a Z statistic. By detecting optimally significant IMD ranking regimes of arbitrary onset and varying duration, this process generates time series of Z values that are an adaptively low-passed and normalized transformation of the original time series. Principal component (PC) analysis of the Z series derived from observed annual temperatures at 92 U.S. grid locations during 1919–2008 shows two dominant modes: a PC1 mode with cool temperatures before the late 1960s and warm temperatures after the mid-1980s, and a PC2 mode indicating a multidecadal temperature cycle over the Southeast. Using a graphic analysis of a Z error metric that compares modeled and observed Z series, the three CMIP-3 model simulations tested here are shown to reproduce the PC1 mode but not the PC2 mode. By providing a way to compare grid-level IMD climate response patterns in observed and modeled data, this method can play a useful diagnostic role in future model development and decadal climate forecasting

Steering the Smart Grid

Increasing energy prices and the greenhouse effect lead to more awareness of energy efficiency of electricity supply. During the last years, a lot of technologies and optimization methodologies were developed to increase the efficiency, maintain the grid stability and support large scale introduction of renewable sources. In previous work, we showed the effectiveness of our three-step methodology to reach these objectives, consisting of 1) offline prediction, 2) offline planning and 3) online scheduling in combination with MPC. In this paper we analyse the best structure for distributing the steering signals in the third step. Simulations show that pricing signals work as good as on/off signals, but pricing signals are more general. Individual pricing signals per house perform better with small prediction errors while one global steering signal for a group of houses performs better when the prediction errors are larger. The best hierarchical structure is to use consumption patterns on all levels except the lowest level and deduct the pricing signals in the lowest node of the tree