Great East Japan Earthquake Emergency Evolution and Contingency Decision Based on System Engineering Approach

AbstractIn recent years, unconventional emergencies that have generated widespread concern in the society have frequently occurred. In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and the nuclear crisis as a result of this disaster have gained tremendous attention worldwide. The present paper used a system engineering approach, an extended event graph, to analyze this earthquake and its event evolution as well as associated contingency decisions. Some pertinent countermeasures are also presented for reference of similar emergency event evolution in the future

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 200

Predicting the cost of the consequences of a large nuclear accident in the UK

Nuclear accidents have the potential to lead to significant off-site effects that require actions to minimise the radiological impacts on people. Such countermeasures may include sheltering, evacuation, restrictions on the sale of locally-grown food, and long-term relocation of the population amongst others. Countries with nuclear facilities draw up emergency preparedness plans, and put in place such provisions as distributing instructions and iodine prophylaxis to the local population. Their plans are applied in simulated exercises on a regular basis. The costs associated with emergency preparedness and the safety provisions to reduce the likelihood of an accident, and/or mitigate the consequences, are justified on the basis of the health risks and accident costs averted. There is, of course, only limited actual experience to indicate the likely costs so that much of the costing of accidents is based on calculations. This paper reviews the methodologies used, in particular the approach that has been developed in the UK, to appraise the costs of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results of analysing a hypothetical nuclear accident at a fictitious reactor site within the United Kingdom are discussed in relation to the accidents at Three Mile Island 2, Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi

Integration of high-resolution, Active and Passive Remote Sensing in support to Tsunami Preparedness and Contingency Planning

In the aftermath of the Sri Lanka tsunami disaster, a stack of synoptic procedures and remote sensing techniques was chosen for satisfying the urgent mapping needs of the Government. This choice presented the undebated advantage of (a) allowing to start the work immediately (b) without relying upon ground logistics until the onset of the air campaign, (c) minimizing the duration of the work on spot, while (d) covering fast - and at an otherwise unreacheable resolution - large portions of a difficult-to-penetrate territory, (e) keeping the work sustainable and, overall, (f) allowing to carry out the work. This combination of airborne and spaceborne techniques is ready-to-use worldwide, and the techniques for flooding simulation and scenario building can be chosen at whatever level of complexity - choosing preferably robustness. It is also worth noting further that the new generation of metric resolution, X-band Radar satellite constellations (as TerraSAR-X and Cosmo-SkyMED), may allow creating LiDAR-like products avoiding airborne missions. The products of the space-and-air campaign were handed over by the Ambassador of Italy to the Minister for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs on 7th December 2006, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Metrics for the Naval Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) Operations

Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations are part of the Cooperative Strategy for the 21st Century Seapower of the United States (U.S.). In this research, we further investigate, through literature survey, whether any metrics can be defined and developed to enhance the efficacy and efficiency of HADR operations. Such measurement will be instrumental in successfully following a fundamental principle: ﾓIf we are going to do HADR anyway, then why not do it smartly.ﾔ In the past 2-3 decades, the United States Navy (USN) has been the active and principal supplier of disaster relief due to its many unique and critical capabilities (Apte, Yoho, Greenfield, & Ingram, 2013; Apte, Goncalves, & Yoho, 2016). Whether this effort will continue and be sustained in an environment of fiscal austerity and budget cuts is not given. Therefore, it is critical to identify resources the USN possesses, due to its core competencies and capabilities, that support humanitarian logistics, and to understand the USNﾒs readiness level to utilize these resources in the best possible way. The United States Marine Corps (USMC) can rapidly respond to disasters because it maintains high levels of readiness on a constant basis. The USMC provides critical resources for these missions through their Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs), which are flexible and adaptable enough to accomplish a wide range of operations, including non-combat missions (Apte & Yoho, 2014). Given the recent frequency of disasters around the world, it is probable that the occurrence of these events will continue, thus creating a demand for the relief capabilities. The MEUs have flexible and adept forces that can be deployed to austere environments while meeting urgent timelines (USMC, 2009).Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver) operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances

Climate change and disaster impact reduction

Based on papers presented at the 'UK - South Asia Young Scientists and Practitioners Seminar on Climate Change and Disaster Impact Reduction' held at Kathmandu, Nepal on 5-6 June, 2008

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Future-proofing the state: managing risks, responding to crises and building resilience

Summary: This book focuses on the challenges facing governments and communities in preparing for and responding to major crises — especially the hard to predict yet unavoidable natural disasters ranging from earthquakes and tsunamis to floods and bushfires, as well as pandemics and global economic crises. Future-proofing the state and our societies involves decision-makers developing capacities to learn from recent ‘disaster’ experiences in order to be better placed to anticipate and prepare for foreseeable challenges. To undertake such futureproofing means taking long-term (and often recurring) problems seriously, managing risks appropriately, investing in preparedness, prevention and mitigation, reducing future vulnerability, building resilience in communities and institutions, and cultivating astute leadership. In the past we have often heard calls for ‘better future-proofing’ in the aftermath of disasters, but then neglected the imperatives of the message. Future-Proofing the State is organised around four key themes: how can we better predict and manage the future; how can we transform the short-term thinking shaped by our political cycles into more effective long-term planning; how can we build learning into our preparations for future policies and management; and how can we successfully build trust and community resilience to meet future challenges more adequately