The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation

Recent research has suggested that globalization may have transformed the U.S. Phillips curve by making inflation a function of global, rather than domestic, economic activity. This paper tests this view by estimating a structural model for the U.S., which incorporates a role of global output on the domestic demand and supply relations and on the formation of expectations. Expectations are modeled as near-rational and economic agents are allowed to learn about the economy's coefficients over time. The estimation reveals small and negative coefficients for the sensitivity of inflation to global output; moreover, the fit of the model improves when global output is excluded from the Phillips curve. Therefore, the evidence does not support altering the traditional closed-economy Phillips curve to include global output. The data suggest, instead, that global output may play an indirect role through the determination of domestic output. But the overall impact of global economic conditions on U.S. inflation remains negligible.Globalization; Global output; Inflation dynamics; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Global slack hypothesis; Constant-gain learning

Rethinking International Compensation: From Expatriate and National Cultures to Strategic Flexibility

[Excerpt] We are on the verge of a worldwide restructuring of compensation and reward systems. Even long established, seemingly carved-in-granite cultural norms, such as lifetime employment in Japan and industry-wide bargaining in Germany, are weakening in response to the pressures of a global economy. So also are our previously hard-and-fast assumptions about international compensation -- the idea that pay systems should keep expatriates “economically whole” and the notion that local compensation should be tailored to fit national cultures

Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk Capital Modelling under Basel II: Combining Different Data Sources for Risk Estimation

The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA) despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis) which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA

Globalization, Labor Income, and Poverty in Mexico

In this paper, I examine changes in the distribution of labor income across regions of Mexico during the country's decade of globalization in the 1990's. I focus the analysis on men born in states with either high-exposure or low-exposure to globalization, as measured by the share of foreign direct investment, imports, or export assembly in state GDP. Controlling for regional differences in the distribution of observable characteristics and for initial differences in regional incomes, the distribution of labor income in high-exposure states shifted to the right relative to the distribution of income in low-exposure states. This change was primarily the result of a shift in mass in the income distribution for low-exposure states from upper-middle income earners to lower income earners. Labor income in low-exposure states fell relative to high-exposure states by 10% and the incidence of wage poverty (the fraction of wage earners whose labor income would not sustain a family of four at above-poverty consumption levels) in low-exposure states increased relative to high-exposure states by 7%.

"Ideas" in Development from George Soros: Power and Influence through Philanthropy?

This paper mainly examines the economic ideas and models brought forward by the always controversial global financier George Soros. The aim is to first explore whether in fact Soros has developed over time a well- articulated model for development based on a coherent system of beliefs and (economic, social, political, and philosophical) ideas, and second examine the notion that the world's wealthiest (including Soros) wield enough power and influence (through philanthropy and other means) to shape the economic landscape of countries. The latter point poses a more problematic question: if indeed the world's wealthiest wield unlimited powers in shaping the global development landscape, it could then be assumed that the quality of their "ideas" does not matter much. How do the resources they control ultimately facilitate the transformation of their beliefs and practices into valid economic "ideas"? Do wealth, power and influence validate ideas? The flip side to this coin is that time (hopefully) eventually weeds out the bad ideas, and only the good ones prevail and propagate in the world, and that the Soros's of the world do not matter much in the long run. A lot has been said and written about Soros's controversial financial dealings but very few attempted to systematically explore his system of ideas and evalua te their cohesiveness. He is too often dismissed as a philosophe manqué. The paper will briefly review the written works of Soros and his publicly stated positions on some of the more significant issues in development and economics today, and at times offer a light critique or praise) where due. A parallel with Keynes on some of the issues is also drawn. The paper will also offer insight on the question of whether philanthropy is conducive to the germination (and, most importantly, diffusion) of ideas.economic development; philanthropy; Soros

Globalization and the Urban Poor in China

globalization, poverty, China

Deep Belief Nets for Topic Modeling

Applying traditional collaborative filtering to digital publishing is challenging because user data is very sparse due to the high volume of documents relative to the number of users. Content based approaches, on the other hand, is attractive because textual content is often very informative. In this paper we describe large-scale content based collaborative filtering for digital publishing. To solve the digital publishing recommender problem we compare two approaches: latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and deep belief nets (DBN) that both find low-dimensional latent representations for documents. Efficient retrieval can be carried out in the latent representation. We work both on public benchmarks and digital media content provided by Issuu, an online publishing platform. This article also comes with a newly developed deep belief nets toolbox for topic modeling tailored towards performance evaluation of the DBN model and comparisons to the LDA model.Comment: Accepted to the ICML-2014 Workshop on Knowledge-Powered Deep Learning for Text Minin

Cultural Paradigms in Property Institutions

Do “cultural factors” substantively influence the creation and evolution of property institutions? For the past several decades, few legal scholars have answered affirmatively. Those inclined towards a law and economics methodology tend to see property institutions as the outcome of self-interested and utilitarian bargaining, and therefore often question the analytical usefulness of “culture.” The major emerging alternative, a progressive literature that emphasizes the social embeddedness of property institutions and individuals, is theoretically more accommodating of cultural analysis but has done very little of it. This Article develops a “cultural” theory of how property institutions are created and demonstrates that such a theory is particularly powerful in explaining large-scale institutional differences between societies. Empirically, it argues that, in the two centuries before large-scale industrialization, China, England, and Japan displayed systematic and fundamental differences in their regulation of property use and transfer. It further argues that these legal and institutional differences are best explained by certain aspects of social culture, specifically by the criteria for sociopolitical status distribution. Some of these criteria are distinctly “cultural” in the sense that they were probably generated by the widespread social internalization of moral values, rather than by utilitarian bargaining. Cultural paradigms can exist, therefore, in property institutions. If we assume, as conventional law and economics urges, that individuals generally approach property use and regulation through a self-interested and utilitarian mindset, their pursuit of personal utility can nonetheless be constrained or empowered by cultural norms of status distribution that determine their relative bargaining power