Nutrients Export by Rivers to the Coastal Waters of Africa: Past and Future trends

We analyze past and future trends in nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and carbon (C) export by rivers to the coastal waters of Africa as calculated by the Global Nutrient Export to WaterShed (NEWS) models for the period 1970–2050. Between 1970 and 2000 the total nutrient export by African rivers increased by 10–80%. For future years (2000–2050) we calculate an increase in the total loads of dissolved forms of N and P, but decreasing trends for dissolved organic C and particulate forms of N and P. There are large regions that deviate from these pan-African trends. We explore the regional patterns and the underlying processes, in particular for the Nile, Zaire, Niger, and Zambezi. In the future, anthropogenic sources may, in large parts of Africa, become larger contributors to riverine nutrient loads than natural source

Future Trends in Nutrient Export to the Coastal Waters of South America: Implications for Occurrence of Eutrophication

We analyze future trends in nutrient export to the coastal waters of South America, with a special focus on the causes of nutrient export and their potential effects. Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) model results for South America are presented, including trends in human activities and the associated river export of nutrients for the period 1970–2050. For 25 areas in coastal waters of South America where eutrophication or hypoxia has been observed, we investigate how these relate to NEWS model output. For selected watersheds we discuss the causes of increased nutrient loadings of rivers and future trends as projected by the NEWS model

N:P:Si nutrient export ratios and ecological consequences in coastal seas evaluated by the ICEP approach

The Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP) for river nutrient export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at the global scale was first calculated from available measurement data. Positive values of ICEP indicate an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus over silica and generally coincide with eutrophication. The sign of ICEP based on measured nutrient fluxes was in good agreement with the corresponding one calculated from the Global-NEWS models for more than 5000 watersheds in the world. Calculated ICEP for the year 2050 based on Global NEWS data for the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios show increasing values particularly in developing countries. For further evaluation of the ICEP at the outlet of the rivers of the world based on measurements, there is a need for additional determination silica fluxes and concentrations, which are scarcely documented

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario drivers (1970-2050): Climate and hydrological alterations

This study was carried out to support and enhance a series of global studies assessing contemporary and future changes in nutrient export from watersheds (Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS)). Because hydrography is one of the most important drivers in nutrient transport, it was essential to establish how climatic changes and direct human activities (primarily irrigation and reservoir operations) affect the hydrological cycle. Contemporary and future hydrography was established by applying a modified version of a global water balance and transport model (WBMplus) driven by present and future climate forcing, as described in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios (1970-2050). WBMplus represents a major upgrade to previous WBM implementations by incorporating irrigational water uptake and reservoir operations in a single modeling framework. Contemporary simulations were carried out by using both observed climate forcings from the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia (CRU) data sets and from Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations that are comparable to the future simulations from the same GCM forcings. Future trends in three key human activities (land use, irrigation, and reservoirs operation for hydropower) were taken from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). The reservoir operation required establishing a realistic distribution of future reservoirs since the IMAGE model provided only the hydropower potentials for the different future scenarios

Anthropogenic nitrogen autotrophy and heterotrophy of the world's watersheds: Past, present, and future trends

Anthropogenic nitrogen autotrophy of a territory is defined as the nitrogen flux associated with local production of harvested crops and grass consumed by livestock grazing (in kg N/km(2)/yr). Nitrogen heterotrophy is the nitrogen flux associated with local food and feed consumption by humans and domestic animals. These two summarizing characteristics (anthropogenic nitrogen autotrophy and heterotrophy (ANAH)) indicate the degree of anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen cycle by agriculture and human consumption: their balance value provides information on either the potential for commercial export or the need to import agricultural goods; in a watershed, their vector sum is related to the nitrogen flux delivered to the sea. These indicators were calculated for all the watersheds in the Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) database for 1970 and 2000, as well as for 2030 and 2050, according to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios. During this 30 year period, many watersheds shifted from relatively balanced situations toward either more autotrophic or more heterotrophic conditions. This trend is predicted to become more pronounced over the next 50 year

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity

Understanding nutrient loading and sources in the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem

Inputs of nitrogen, phosphorous and dissolved silica from watersheds draining into the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem are calculated for the present day and predictions made for 2030 and 2050 are presented. The major sources are identified and the Indicator of Coastal Eutrophication (ICEP) is calculated

Water Quality Trading Programs: An International Overview

Explains water quality trading, in which nutrient discharges in waterways are capped and high polluters can purchase pollution discharge credits from others. Compares programs and discusses program design, costs, elements of success, and lessons learned

Human alteration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970-2050

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios for 2000 to 2050 describe contrasting future developments in agricultural land use under changing climate. Differences are related to the total crop and livestock production and the efficiency of nutrient use in agriculture. The scenarios with a reactive approach to environmental problems show increases in agricultural N and P soil balances in all developing countries. In the scenarios with a proactive attitude, N balances decrease and P balances show no change or a slight increase. In Europe and North America, the N balance will decline in all scenarios, most strongly in the environment-oriented scenarios; the P balance declines (proactive) or increases slowly (reactive approach). Even with rapidly increasing agricultural efficiency, the global N balance, ammonia, leaching and denitrification loss will not decrease from their current levels even in the most optimistic scenario. Soil P depletion seems to be a major problem in large parts of the global grassland are