GIS-based modeling of land use systems - Common Agricultural Policy reform and its impact on agricultural land use and plant species richness

An assessment of agricultural policy measures and their sustainability needs to consider economic, social, and ecological aspects. The current paradigm shift of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from coupled to decoupled transfer payments calls for such an evaluation. Land users have to reevaluate their production program and its spatial allocation. Consequently, agricultural policy influences regional land use patterns and shares of land use systems, which in turn influence regional plant species richness. Connecting land use and ecological models allows to assess socioeconomic and ecologic effects of policy measures by identifying interactions and estimating potential trade-offs. The paper presents the land use model ProLand and the fuzzy expert system UPAL. ProLand models the regional distribution of land use systems while UPAL predicts plant species richness. The models are connected through a GIS and applied to a study area in Hesse, Germany, in order to simulate the effects of changing conditions on land use, economic and social key indicators, and plant species richness. ProLand is a spatially explicit comparative static model that simulates a region’s land use pattern based on natural, socioeconomic, political, and technological parameters. The model assumes land rent maximizing behavior of land users. It calculates and assigns the land rent maximizing land use system for every investigated decision unit, generally a field. A land use system is characterized through crop rotation, corresponding outdoor operations, animal husbandry if applicable, and the relevant political and socioeconomic attributes. The fuzzy expert system derives the values of ecologically relevant parameters from several site specific attributes and land use operations. Land use dependent site characteristics that influence plant species richness are derived from predictions generated by ProLand. Detailed information on crop rotation, fertilization and pesticide strategy, and outdoor operations are considered. The expert system then classifies natural and land use dependent site characteristics into aggregate factors. Based on a set of rules it assigns the number of species to the classes and thus to the decision units. Simulation results for the study area show that the CAP reform causes a rise in grassland area. These land use changes mainly occur in areas currently used for arable farming but with natural conditions favoring grassland. Plant species richness is positively influenced by the increase in extensive grassland area.

State-of-the-Art Report on Systems Analysis Methods for Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resources Management

Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. Two or more countries share the watersheds of 261 major rivers and nearly half of the land area of the wo rld is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war. Water systems have been targets during the war. A role of systems approach has been investigated in this report as an approach for resolution of conflicts over water. A review of systems approach provides some basic knowledge of tools and techniques as they apply to water management and conflict resolution. Report provides a classification and description of water conflicts by addressing issues of scale, integrated water management and the role of stakeholders. Four large-scale examples are selected to illustrate the application of systems approach to water conflicts: (a) hydropower development in Canada; (b) multipurpose use of Danube river in Europe; (c) international water conflict between USA and Canada; and (d) Aral See in Asia. Water conflict resolution process involves various sources of uncertainty. One section of the report provides some examples of systems tools that can be used to address objective and subjective uncertainties with special emphasis on the utility of the fuzzy set theory. Systems analysis is known to be driven by the development of computer technology. Last section of the report provides one view of the future and systems tools that will be used for water resources management. Role of the virtual databases, computer and communication networks is investigated in the context of water conflicts and their resolution.https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/1005/thumbnail.jp

Phylogeography of New Zealand’s coastal benthos

During the past 30 years, 42 molecular studies have been undertaken in New Zealand to examine the phylogeography of coastal benthic invertebrates and plants. Here, we identify generalities and/or patterns that have emerged from this research and consider the processes implicated in generating genetic structure within populations. Studies have used various molecular markers and examined taxonomic groups with a range of life histories and dispersal strategies. Genetic disjunctions have been identified at multiple locations, with the most frequently observed division occurring between northern and southern populations at the top of the South Island. Although upwelling has been implicated as a cause of this disjunction, oceanographic evidence is lacking and alternative hypotheses exist. A significant negative correlation between larval duration and genetic differentiation (r2 = 0.39, P < 0.001, n = 29) across all studies suggests that larval duration might be used as a proxy for dispersal potential. However, among taxa with short larval durations (<10 days) there was greater variability in genetic differentiation than among taxa with longer pelagic periods. This variability implies that when larval duration is short, other factors may determine dispersal and connectivity among populations. Although there has been little congruence between the phylogeographic data and recognised biogeographic regions, recent research has resolved population subdivision at finer spatial scales corresponding more closely with existing biogeographic classifications. The use of fast-evolving and ecologically significant molecular markers in hypothesis-driven research could further improve our ability to detect population subdivision and identify the processes structuring marine ecosystems

A rule-based method for scalable and traceable evaluation of system architectures

Despite the development of a variety of decision-aid tools for assessing the value of a conceptual design, humans continue to play a dominant role in this process. Researchers have identified two major challenges to automation, namely the subjectivity of value and the existence of multiple and conflicting customer needs. A third challenge is however arising as the amount of data (e.g., expert judgment, requirements, and engineering models) required to assess value increases. This brings two challenges. First, it becomes harder to modify existing knowledge or add new knowledge into the knowledge base. Second, it becomes harder to trace the results provided by the tool back to the design variables and model parameters. Current tools lack the scalability and traceability required to tackle these knowledge-intensive design evaluation problems. This work proposes a traceable and scalable rule-based architecture evaluation tool called VASSAR that is especially tailored to tackle knowledge-intensive problems that can be formulated as configuration design problems, which is demonstrated using the conceptual design task for a laptop. The methodology has three main steps. First, facts containing the capabilities and performance of different architectures are computed using rules containing physical and logical models. Second, capabilities are compared with requirements to assess satisfaction of each requirement. Third, requirement satisfaction is aggregated to yield a manageable number of metrics. An explanation facility keeps track of the value chain all along this process. This paper describes the methodology in detail and discusses in particular different implementations of preference functions as logical rules. A full-scale example around the design of Earth observing satellites is presented