Multi-Target Prediction: A Unifying View on Problems and Methods

Multi-target prediction (MTP) is concerned with the simultaneous prediction of multiple target variables of diverse type. Due to its enormous application potential, it has developed into an active and rapidly expanding research field that combines several subfields of machine learning, including multivariate regression, multi-label classification, multi-task learning, dyadic prediction, zero-shot learning, network inference, and matrix completion. In this paper, we present a unifying view on MTP problems and methods. First, we formally discuss commonalities and differences between existing MTP problems. To this end, we introduce a general framework that covers the above subfields as special cases. As a second contribution, we provide a structured overview of MTP methods. This is accomplished by identifying a number of key properties, which distinguish such methods and determine their suitability for different types of problems. Finally, we also discuss a few challenges for future research

Incremental Sparse Bayesian Ordinal Regression

Ordinal Regression (OR) aims to model the ordering information between different data categories, which is a crucial topic in multi-label learning. An important class of approaches to OR models the problem as a linear combination of basis functions that map features to a high dimensional non-linear space. However, most of the basis function-based algorithms are time consuming. We propose an incremental sparse Bayesian approach to OR tasks and introduce an algorithm to sequentially learn the relevant basis functions in the ordinal scenario. Our method, called Incremental Sparse Bayesian Ordinal Regression (ISBOR), automatically optimizes the hyper-parameters via the type-II maximum likelihood method. By exploiting fast marginal likelihood optimization, ISBOR can avoid big matrix inverses, which is the main bottleneck in applying basis function-based algorithms to OR tasks on large-scale datasets. We show that ISBOR can make accurate predictions with parsimonious basis functions while offering automatic estimates of the prediction uncertainty. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real word datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of ISBOR compared to other basis function-based OR approaches

Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection

A Novel Hybrid Ordinal Learning Model with Health Care Application

Ordinal learning (OL) is a type of machine learning models with broad utility in health care applications such as diagnosis of different grades of a disease (e.g., mild, modest, severe) and prediction of the speed of disease progression (e.g., very fast, fast, moderate, slow). This paper aims to tackle a situation when precisely labeled samples are limited in the training set due to cost or availability constraints, whereas there could be an abundance of samples with imprecise labels. We focus on imprecise labels that are intervals, i.e., one can know that a sample belongs to an interval of labels but cannot know which unique label it has. This situation is quite common in health care datasets due to limitations of the diagnostic instrument, sparse clinical visits, or/and patient dropout. Limited research has been done to develop OL models with imprecise/interval labels. We propose a new Hybrid Ordinal Learner (HOL) to integrate samples with both precise and interval labels to train a robust OL model. We also develop a tractable and efficient optimization algorithm to solve the HOL formulation. We compare HOL with several recently developed OL methods on four benchmarking datasets, which demonstrate the superior performance of HOL. Finally, we apply HOL to a real-world dataset for predicting the speed of progressing to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) for individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) based on a combination of multi-modality neuroimaging and demographic/clinical datasets. HOL achieves high accuracy in the prediction and outperforms existing methods. The capability of accurately predicting the speed of progression to AD for each individual with MCI has the potential for helping facilitate more individually-optimized interventional strategies.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 2 table