1,098 research outputs found

    Advances in machine learning algorithms for financial risk management

    Get PDF
    In this thesis, three novel machine learning techniques are introduced to address distinct yet interrelated challenges involved in financial risk management tasks. These approaches collectively offer a comprehensive strategy, beginning with the precise classification of credit risks, advancing through the nuanced forecasting of financial asset volatility, and ending with the strategic optimisation of financial asset portfolios. Firstly, a Hybrid Dual-Resampling and Cost-Sensitive technique has been proposed to combat the prevalent issue of class imbalance in financial datasets, particularly in credit risk assessment. The key process involves the creation of heuristically balanced datasets to effectively address the problem. It uses a resampling technique based on Gaussian mixture modelling to generate a synthetic minority class from the minority class data and concurrently uses k-means clustering on the majority class. Feature selection is then performed using the Extra Tree Ensemble technique. Subsequently, a cost-sensitive logistic regression model is then applied to predict the probability of default using the heuristically balanced datasets. The results underscore the effectiveness of our proposed technique, with superior performance observed in comparison to other imbalanced preprocessing approaches. This advancement in credit risk classification lays a solid foundation for understanding individual financial behaviours, a crucial first step in the broader context of financial risk management. Building on this foundation, the thesis then explores the forecasting of financial asset volatility, a critical aspect of understanding market dynamics. A novel model that combines a Triple Discriminator Generative Adversarial Network with a continuous wavelet transform is proposed. The proposed model has the ability to decompose volatility time series into signal-like and noise-like frequency components, to allow the separate detection and monitoring of non-stationary volatility data. The network comprises of a wavelet transform component consisting of continuous wavelet transforms and inverse wavelet transform components, an auto-encoder component made up of encoder and decoder networks, and a Generative Adversarial Network consisting of triple Discriminator and Generator networks. The proposed Generative Adversarial Network employs an ensemble of unsupervised loss derived from the Generative Adversarial Network component during training, supervised loss and reconstruction loss as part of its framework. Data from nine financial assets are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. This approach not only enhances our understanding of market fluctuations but also bridges the gap between individual credit risk assessment and macro-level market analysis. Finally the thesis ends with a novel proposal of a novel technique or Portfolio optimisation. This involves the use of a model-free reinforcement learning strategy for portfolio optimisation using historical Low, High, and Close prices of assets as input with weights of assets as output. A deep Capsules Network is employed to simulate the investment strategy, which involves the reallocation of the different assets to maximise the expected return on investment based on deep reinforcement learning. To provide more learning stability in an online training process, a Markov Differential Sharpe Ratio reward function has been proposed as the reinforcement learning objective function. Additionally, a Multi-Memory Weight Reservoir has also been introduced to facilitate the learning process and optimisation of computed asset weights, helping to sequentially re-balance the portfolio throughout a specified trading period. The use of the insights gained from volatility forecasting into this strategy shows the interconnected nature of the financial markets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrated that our proposed technique is capable of achieving superior results based on risk-adjusted reward performance measures. In a nut-shell, this thesis not only addresses individual challenges in financial risk management but it also incorporates them into a comprehensive framework; from enhancing the accuracy of credit risk classification, through the improvement and understanding of market volatility, to optimisation of investment strategies. These methodologies collectively show the potential of the use of machine learning to improve financial risk management

    Meta-learning algorithms and applications

    Get PDF
    Meta-learning in the broader context concerns how an agent learns about their own learning, allowing them to improve their learning process. Learning how to learn is not only beneficial for humans, but it has also shown vast benefits for improving how machines learn. In the context of machine learning, meta-learning enables models to improve their learning process by selecting suitable meta-parameters that influence the learning. For deep learning specifically, the meta-parameters typically describe details of the training of the model but can also include description of the model itself - the architecture. Meta-learning is usually done with specific goals in mind, for example trying to improve ability to generalize or learn new concepts from only a few examples. Meta-learning can be powerful, but it comes with a key downside: it is often computationally costly. If the costs would be alleviated, meta-learning could be more accessible to developers of new artificial intelligence models, allowing them to achieve greater goals or save resources. As a result, one key focus of our research is on significantly improving the efficiency of meta-learning. We develop two approaches: EvoGrad and PASHA, both of which significantly improve meta-learning efficiency in two common scenarios. EvoGrad allows us to efficiently optimize the value of a large number of differentiable meta-parameters, while PASHA enables us to efficiently optimize any type of meta-parameters but fewer in number. Meta-learning is a tool that can be applied to solve various problems. Most commonly it is applied for learning new concepts from only a small number of examples (few-shot learning), but other applications exist too. To showcase the practical impact that meta-learning can make in the context of neural networks, we use meta-learning as a novel solution for two selected problems: more accurate uncertainty quantification (calibration) and general-purpose few-shot learning. Both are practically important problems and using meta-learning approaches we can obtain better solutions than the ones obtained using existing approaches. Calibration is important for safety-critical applications of neural networks, while general-purpose few-shot learning tests model's ability to generalize few-shot learning abilities across diverse tasks such as recognition, segmentation and keypoint estimation. More efficient algorithms as well as novel applications enable the field of meta-learning to make more significant impact on the broader area of deep learning and potentially solve problems that were too challenging before. Ultimately both of them allow us to better utilize the opportunities that artificial intelligence presents

    Designing Optimal Behavioral Experiments Using Machine Learning

    Get PDF
    Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same richness and ability to surprise means our scientific intuitions and traditional tools are ill-suited to designing experiments to test and compare these models. To avoid these pitfalls and realize the full potential of computational modeling, we require tools to design experiments that provide clear answers about what models explain human behavior and the auxiliary assumptions those models must make. Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) formalizes the search for optimal experimental designs by identifying experiments that are expected to yield informative data. In this work, we provide a tutorial on leveraging recent advances in BOED and machine learning to find optimal experiments for any kind of model that we can simulate data from, and show how by-products of this procedure allow for quick and straightforward evaluation of models and their parameters against real experimental data. As a case study, we consider theories of how people balance exploration and exploitation in multi-armed bandit decision-making tasks. We validate the presented approach using simulations and a real-world experiment. As compared to experimental designs commonly used in the literature, we show that our optimal designs more efficiently determine which of a set of models best account for individual human behavior, and more efficiently characterize behavior given a preferred model. At the same time, formalizing a scientific question such that it can be adequately addressed with BOED can be challenging and we discuss several potential caveats and pitfalls that practitioners should be aware of. We provide code and tutorial notebooks to replicate all analyses

    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume

    Get PDF
    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum

    Signature Trading: A Path-Dependent Extension of the Mean-Variance Framework with Exogenous Signals

    Full text link
    In this article we introduce a portfolio optimisation framework, in which the use of rough path signatures (Lyons, 1998) provides a novel method of incorporating path-dependencies in the joint signal-asset dynamics, naturally extending traditional factor models, while keeping the resulting formulas lightweight and easily interpretable. We achieve this by representing a trading strategy as a linear functional applied to the signature of a path (which we refer to as "Signature Trading" or "Sig-Trading"). This allows the modeller to efficiently encode the evolution of past time-series observations into the optimisation problem. In particular, we derive a concise formulation of the dynamic mean-variance criterion alongside an explicit solution in our setting, which naturally incorporates a drawdown control in the optimal strategy over a finite time horizon. Secondly, we draw parallels between classical portfolio stategies and Sig-Trading strategies and explain how the latter leads to a pathwise extension of the classical setting via the "Signature Efficient Frontier". Finally, we give examples when trading under an exogenous signal as well as examples for momentum and pair-trading strategies, demonstrated both on synthetic and market data. Our framework combines the best of both worlds between classical theory (whose appeal lies in clear and concise formulae) and between modern, flexible data-driven methods that can handle more realistic datasets. The advantage of the added flexibility of the latter is that one can bypass common issues such as the accumulation of heteroskedastic and asymmetric residuals during the optimisation phase. Overall, Sig-Trading combines the flexibility of data-driven methods without compromising on the clarity of the classical theory and our presented results provide a compelling toolbox that yields superior results for a large class of trading strategies

    Mining Butterflies in Streaming Graphs

    Get PDF
    This thesis introduces two main-memory systems sGrapp and sGradd for performing the fundamental analytic tasks of biclique counting and concept drift detection over a streaming graph. A data-driven heuristic is used to architect the systems. To this end, initially, the growth patterns of bipartite streaming graphs are mined and the emergence principles of streaming motifs are discovered. Next, the discovered principles are (a) explained by a graph generator called sGrow; and (b) utilized to establish the requirements for efficient, effective, explainable, and interpretable management and processing of streams. sGrow is used to benchmark stream analytics, particularly in the case of concept drift detection. sGrow displays robust realization of streaming growth patterns independent of initial conditions, scale and temporal characteristics, and model configurations. Extensive evaluations confirm the simultaneous effectiveness and efficiency of sGrapp and sGradd. sGrapp achieves mean absolute percentage error up to 0.05/0.14 for the cumulative butterfly count in streaming graphs with uniform/non-uniform temporal distribution and a processing throughput of 1.5 million data records per second. The throughput and estimation error of sGrapp are 160x higher and 0.02x lower than baselines. sGradd demonstrates an improving performance over time, achieves zero false detection rates when there is not any drift and when drift is already detected, and detects sequential drifts in zero to a few seconds after their occurrence regardless of drift intervals

    Modular lifelong machine learning

    Get PDF
    Deep learning has drastically improved the state-of-the-art in many important fields, including computer vision and natural language processing (LeCun et al., 2015). However, it is expensive to train a deep neural network on a machine learning problem. The overall training cost further increases when one wants to solve additional problems. Lifelong machine learning (LML) develops algorithms that aim to efficiently learn to solve a sequence of problems, which become available one at a time. New problems are solved with less resources by transferring previously learned knowledge. At the same time, an LML algorithm needs to retain good performance on all encountered problems, thus avoiding catastrophic forgetting. Current approaches do not possess all the desired properties of an LML algorithm. First, they primarily focus on preventing catastrophic forgetting (Diaz-Rodriguez et al., 2018; Delange et al., 2021). As a result, they neglect some knowledge transfer properties. Furthermore, they assume that all problems in a sequence share the same input space. Finally, scaling these methods to a large sequence of problems remains a challenge. Modular approaches to deep learning decompose a deep neural network into sub-networks, referred to as modules. Each module can then be trained to perform an atomic transformation, specialised in processing a distinct subset of inputs. This modular approach to storing knowledge makes it easy to only reuse the subset of modules which are useful for the task at hand. This thesis introduces a line of research which demonstrates the merits of a modular approach to lifelong machine learning, and its ability to address the aforementioned shortcomings of other methods. Compared to previous work, we show that a modular approach can be used to achieve more LML properties than previously demonstrated. Furthermore, we develop tools which allow modular LML algorithms to scale in order to retain said properties on longer sequences of problems. First, we introduce HOUDINI, a neurosymbolic framework for modular LML. HOUDINI represents modular deep neural networks as functional programs and accumulates a library of pre-trained modules over a sequence of problems. Given a new problem, we use program synthesis to select a suitable neural architecture, as well as a high-performing combination of pre-trained and new modules. We show that our approach has most of the properties desired from an LML algorithm. Notably, it can perform forward transfer, avoid negative transfer and prevent catastrophic forgetting, even across problems with disparate input domains and problems which require different neural architectures. Second, we produce a modular LML algorithm which retains the properties of HOUDINI but can also scale to longer sequences of problems. To this end, we fix the choice of a neural architecture and introduce a probabilistic search framework, PICLE, for searching through different module combinations. To apply PICLE, we introduce two probabilistic models over neural modules which allows us to efficiently identify promising module combinations. Third, we phrase the search over module combinations in modular LML as black-box optimisation, which allows one to make use of methods from the setting of hyperparameter optimisation (HPO). We then develop a new HPO method which marries a multi-fidelity approach with model-based optimisation. We demonstrate that this leads to improvement in anytime performance in the HPO setting and discuss how this can in turn be used to augment modular LML methods. Overall, this thesis identifies a number of important LML properties, which have not all been attained in past methods, and presents an LML algorithm which can achieve all of them, apart from backward transfer

    Machine learning approach towards predicting turbulent fluid flow using convolutional neural networks

    Get PDF
    Using convolutional neural networks, we present a novel method for predicting turbulent fluid flow through an array of obstacles in this thesis. In recent years, machine learning has exploded in popularity due to its ability to create accurate data driven models and the abundance of available data. In an attempt to understand the characteristics of turbulent fluid flow, we utilise a novel convolutional autoencoder neural network to predict the first ten POD modes of turbulent fluid flow. We find that the model is able to predict the first two POD modes well although and with less accuracy for the remaining eight POD modes. In addition, we find that the ML-predicted POD modes are accurate enough to be used to reconstruct turbulent flow that adequately captures the large-scale details of the original simulation

    Non-Stationary Bandit Learning via Predictive Sampling

    Full text link
    Thompson sampling has proven effective across a wide range of stationary bandit environments. However, as we demonstrate in this paper, it can perform poorly when applied to non-stationary environments. We show that such failures are attributed to the fact that, when exploring, the algorithm does not differentiate actions based on how quickly the information acquired loses its usefulness due to non-stationarity. Building upon this insight, we propose predictive sampling, an algorithm that deprioritizes acquiring information that quickly loses usefulness. Theoretical guarantee on the performance of predictive sampling is established through a Bayesian regret bound. We provide versions of predictive sampling for which computations tractably scale to complex bandit environments of practical interest. Through numerical simulations, we demonstrate that predictive sampling outperforms Thompson sampling in all non-stationary environments examined

    Adaptive vehicular networking with Deep Learning

    Get PDF
    Vehicular networks have been identified as a key enabler for future smart traffic applications aiming to improve on-road safety, increase road traffic efficiency, or provide advanced infotainment services to improve on-board comfort. However, the requirements of smart traffic applications also place demands on vehicular networks’ quality in terms of high data rates, low latency, and reliability, while simultaneously meeting the challenges of sustainability, green network development goals and energy efficiency. The advances in vehicular communication technologies combined with the peculiar characteristics of vehicular networks have brought challenges to traditional networking solutions designed around fixed parameters using complex mathematical optimisation. These challenges necessitate greater intelligence to be embedded in vehicular networks to realise adaptive network optimisation. As such, one promising solution is the use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to extract hidden patterns from collected data thus formulating adaptive network optimisation solutions with strong generalisation capabilities. In this thesis, an overview of the underlying technologies, applications, and characteristics of vehicular networks is presented, followed by the motivation of using ML and a general introduction of ML background. Additionally, a literature review of ML applications in vehicular networks is also presented drawing on the state-of-the-art of ML technology adoption. Three key challenging research topics have been identified centred around network optimisation and ML deployment aspects. The first research question and contribution focus on mobile Handover (HO) optimisation as vehicles pass between base stations; a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) handover algorithm is proposed and evaluated against the currently deployed method. Simulation results suggest that the proposed algorithm can guarantee optimal HO decision in a realistic simulation setup. The second contribution explores distributed radio resource management optimisation. Two versions of a Federated Learning (FL) enhanced DRL algorithm are proposed and evaluated against other state-of-the-art ML solutions. Simulation results suggest that the proposed solution outperformed other benchmarks in overall resource utilisation efficiency, especially in generalisation scenarios. The third contribution looks at energy efficiency optimisation on the network side considering a backdrop of sustainability and green networking. A cell switching algorithm was developed based on a Graph Neural Network (GNN) model and the proposed energy efficiency scheme is able to achieve almost 95% of the metric normalised energy efficiency compared against the “ideal” optimal energy efficiency benchmark and is capable of being applied in many more general network configurations compared with the state-of-the-art ML benchmark
    • …
    corecore