Modeling Factions for \u27Effects Based Operations\u27: Part II Behavioral Game Theory

Military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysts are increasingly interested in having a valid system of models that span the social sciences and interoperate so that one can determine the effects that may arise from alternative operations (courses of action) in different lands. Part I of this article concentrated on internal validity of the components of such a synthetic framework – a world diplomacy game as well as the agent architecture for modeling leaders and followers in different conflicts. But how valid are such model collections once they are integrated together and used out-of-sample (see Section 1)? Section 2 compares these realistic, descriptive agents to normative rational actor theory and offers equilibria insights for conflict games. Sections 3 and 4 offer two real world cases (Iraq and SE Asia) where the agent models are subjected to validity tests and an EBO experiment is then run for each case. We conclude by arguing that substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analytic experiments are to effectively explore conflicts and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such efforts are likely to improve behavioral game theory as well

Modeling Factions for ‘Effects Based Operations’: Part II – Behavioral Game Theory

Military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysts are increasingly interested in having a valid system of models that span the social sciences and interoperate so that one can determine the effects that may arise from alternative operations (courses of action) in different lands. Part I of this article concentrated on internal validity of the components of such a synthetic framework – a world diplomacy game as well as the agent architecture for modeling leaders and followers in different conflicts. But how valid are such model collections once they are integrated together and used out-of-sample (see Section 1)? Section 2 compares these realistic, descriptive agents to normative rational actor theory and offers equilibria insights for conflict games. Sections 3 and 4 offer two real world cases (Iraq and SE Asia) where the agent models are subjected to validity tests and an EBO experiment is then run for each case. We conclude by arguing that substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analytic experiments are to effectively explore conflicts and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such efforts are likely to improve behavioral game theory as well

Socio-Cultural Games for Training and Analysis

This paper presents a theory for role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) with generating and testing alternative competing hypotheses on how to influence world conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Section 1.1 explains, is codification and synthesis of best-of-breed social science models within PMFserv to improve the internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 then offers two real world case studies (The Third Crusade and SE Asia today) where the agent models are subjected to Turing and correspondence tests under each case study. In sum, substantial effort on game realism, best-of-breed social science models, and agent validation efforts is essential if analysis and training tools are to help explore cultural issues and alternative ways to influence outcomes. Such exercises, in turn, are likely to improve the state of the science as well

An adaptive security construct: insurgency in Sudan

Internal wars are by default the business of others, until someone says they are not. Artificially contained within the confines of the current international system, insurgent conflicts are considered domestic affairs only until they threaten external interests. In judging intrastate conflict by and large from a crisis-response perspective, conventional assessment methodologies, oriented largely toward interstate wars, tend to fall short in objectively analyzing the historical and dynamic aspects of internal wars. This thesis develops an Adaptive Security Construct (ASC) that aims to correct such shortcomings through the multi-disciplinary integration of three conceptual lenses: a qualitative situation estimate, a game-theoretic dynamic conflict model, and geospatially oriented nexus topography. Using Sudan's internal wars as a case study, where the existence of signed peace-agreements in both the south and Darfur exist in apparent contradiction of these conflicts' causes, the ASC iteratively correlates the analysis of each of the three lenses to provide an observer a more objective external view of conflicts that are inherently "internal." This thesis presents the ASC as an iterative process and perspective that enables the formulation of general imperatives and specific approaches in response to contemporary arenas of conflict, both in Sudan and within the international community at large.http://archive.org/details/andaptivesecurit109453057Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States Air ForceApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Mass Atrocities and their Prevention

Counting conservatively, and ignoring physical injuries and mental trauma, data show about 100 million mass atrocity-related deaths since 1900. Occurring in war and in peacetime, and of enormous scale, severity, and brutality, they are geographically widespread, occur with surprising frequency, and can be long-lasting in their adverse effects on economic and human development, wellbeing, and wealth. As such, they are a major economic concern. This article synthesizes very diverse and widely dispersed theoretical and empirical literatures, addressing two gaps: a “mass atrocities gap” in the economics literature and an “economics gap” in mass atrocities scholarship. Our goals are, first, for noneconomists to learn how economic inquiry contributes to understanding the causes and conduct of mass atrocities and possibly to their mitigation and prevention and, second, to survey and synthesize for economists a broad sweep of literatures to serve as a common platform on which to base further work in this field

A Neoclassical Realist’s Analysis Of Sino-U.S. Space Policy

During the Cold War, the United States focused its collective policy acumen on forming a competitive, actor-specific strategy to gain advantage over the Soviet Union. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union resulted in a multi-polar geopolitical environment lacking a near-peer rival for the United States. Overwhelming soft and hard power advantages allowed American policy makers to peruse a general, non-actor specific strategy to maintain its hegemonic position. However, the meteoric rise of China as a near-peer competitor in East Asia has challenged this paradigm. In order to maintain its competitive advantage, or at the very least ensure the safety of its geopolitical objectives through encouraging benign competition, U.S. strategy needs to evolve in both focus and complexity. It is essential for Spacepower, as a key element of national power, to be included in this evolution. In order to do so, this analysis will examine Sino-U.S. space relations using neoclassical realism as a baseline methodology. First, structural elements of the Sino-U.S. relationship will be modeled in a semi-quantitative game theoretical framework, using relative economic and military capabilities as primary independent variables. Second, key assumptions will be tested to ensure that this model accurately represents the current geopolitical environment. Third, the decision making apparatuses of the United States and China will be examined as intervening variables. This will account for imperfect rationality and how it modifies the game theoretical framework. Fourth, this framework will be used to present actionable space policy recommendations for the United States so that space can be incorporated into a competitive strategy for East Asia

Agents for educational games and simulations

This book consists mainly of revised papers that were presented at the Agents for Educational Games and Simulation (AEGS) workshop held on May 2, 2011, as part of the Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems (AAMAS) conference in Taipei, Taiwan. The 12 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from various submissions. The papers are organized topical sections on middleware applications, dialogues and learning, adaption and convergence, and agent applications

Rich Socio-Cognitive Agents for Immersive Training Environments: Case of NonKin Village

Demand is on the rise for scientifically based human-behavior models that can be quickly customized and inserted into immersive training environments to recreate a given society or culture. At the same time, there are no readily available science model-driven environments for this purpose (see survey in Sect. 2). In researching how to overcome this obstacle, we have created rich (complex) socio-cognitive agents that include a large number of social science models (cognitive, sociologic, economic, political, etc) needed to enhance the realism of immersive, artificial agent societies. We describe current efforts to apply model-driven development concepts and how to permit other models to be plugged in should a developer prefer them instead. The current, default library of behavioral models is a metamodel, or authoring language, capable of generating immersive social worlds. Section 3 explores the specific metamodels currently in this library (cognitive, socio-political, economic, conversational, etc.) and Sect. 4 illustrates them with an implementation that results in a virtual Afghan village as a platform-independent model. This is instantiated into a server that then works across a bridge to control the agents in an immersive, platform-specific 3D gameworld (client). Section 4 also provides examples of interacting in the resulting gameworld and some of the training a player receives. We end with lessons learned and next steps for improving both the process and the gameworld. The seeming paradox of this research is that as agent complexity increases, the easier it becomes for the agents to explain their world, their dilemmas, and their social networks to a player or trainee

Forging Wargamers

How do we establish or improve wargaming education, including sponsors, participants, and future designers? The question stems from the uncomfortable truth that the wargaming discipline has no foundational pipeline, no established pathway from novice to master. Consequently, the wargaming community stands at a dangerous precipice at the convergence of a stagnant labor force and a patchwork system of passing institutional war-gaming knowledge. Unsurprisingly, this can lead to ill-informed sponsors, poorly scoped wargames, an unreliable standard of wargaming expertise, and worst of all, risks the decline of wargaming as an educational and analytical tool. This fundamental challenge is a recurring theme throughout this volume and each author offers their own perspective and series of recommendations