Variational Downscaling, Fusion and Assimilation of Hydrometeorological States via Regularized Estimation

Improved estimation of hydrometeorological states from down-sampled observations and background model forecasts in a noisy environment, has been a subject of growing research in the past decades. Here, we introduce a unified framework that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data assimilation as ill-posed inverse problems. This framework seeks solutions beyond the classic least squares estimation paradigms by imposing proper regularization, which are constraints consistent with the degree of smoothness and probabilistic structure of the underlying state. We review relevant regularization methods in derivative space and extend classic formulations of the aforementioned problems with particular emphasis on hydrologic and atmospheric applications. Informed by the statistical characteristics of the state variable of interest, the central results of the paper suggest that proper regularization can lead to a more accurate and stable recovery of the true state and hence more skillful forecasts. In particular, using the Tikhonov and Huber regularization in the derivative space, the promise of the proposed framework is demonstrated in static downscaling and fusion of synthetic multi-sensor precipitation data, while a data assimilation numerical experiment is presented using the heat equation in a variational setting

Fast Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Hyperparameters on Large Datasets

Bayesian optimization has become a successful tool for hyperparameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, such as support vector machines or deep neural networks. Despite its success, for large datasets, training and validating a single configuration often takes hours, days, or even weeks, which limits the achievable performance. To accelerate hyperparameter optimization, we propose a generative model for the validation error as a function of training set size, which is learned during the optimization process and allows exploration of preliminary configurations on small subsets, by extrapolating to the full dataset. We construct a Bayesian optimization procedure, dubbed Fabolas, which models loss and training time as a function of dataset size and automatically trades off high information gain about the global optimum against computational cost. Experiments optimizing support vector machines and deep neural networks show that Fabolas often finds high-quality solutions 10 to 100 times faster than other state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization methods or the recently proposed bandit strategy Hyperband

On gradient regularizers for MMD GANs

We propose a principled method for gradient-based regularization of the critic of GAN-like models trained by adversarially optimizing the kernel of a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We show that controlling the gradient of the critic is vital to having a sensible loss function, and devise a method to enforce exact, analytical gradient constraints at no additional cost compared to existing approximate techniques based on additive regularizers. The new loss function is provably continuous, and experiments show that it stabilizes and accelerates training, giving image generation models that outperform state-of-the art methods on 160 × 160 CelebA and 64 × 64 unconditional ImageNet