On the Testing of Ground--Motion Prediction Equations against Small--Magnitude Data

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low seismicity regions, only weak motions are available in the lifetime of accelerometric networks, and the equations selected for the probabilistic studies are usually models established from foreign data. Although most ground-motion prediction equations have been developed for magnitudes 5 and above, the minimum magnitude often used in probabilistic studies in low seismicity regions is smaller. Desaggregations have shown that, at return periods of engineering interest, magnitudes lower than 5 can be contributing to the hazard. This paper presents the testing of several GMPEs selected in current international and national probabilistic projects against weak motions recorded in France (191 recordings with source-site distances up to 300km, 3.8\leqMw\leq4.5). The method is based on the loglikelihood value proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2009). The best fitting models (approximately 2.5\leqLLH\leq3.5) over the whole frequency range are the Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008), Akkar and Bommer (2010) and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) models. No significant regional variation of ground motions is highlighted, and the magnitude scaling could be predominant in the control of ground-motion amplitudes. Furthermore, we take advantage of a rich Japanese dataset to run tests on randomly selected low-magnitude subsets, and check that a dataset of ~190 observations, same size as the French dataset, is large enough to obtain stable LLH estimates. Additionally we perform the tests against larger magnitudes (5-7) from the Japanese dataset. The ranking of models is partially modified, indicating a magnitude scaling effect for some of the models, and showing that extrapolating testing results obtained from low magnitude ranges to higher magnitude ranges is not straightforward

Numerical and experimental analysis of the leaning Tower of Pisa under earthquake

Twenty years have passed from the most recent studies about the dynamic behavior of the leaning Tower of Pisa. Significant changes have occurred in the meantime, the most important ones concerning the soil-structure interaction. From 1999 to 2001, the foundation of the monument was consolidated through under-excavation, and the "Catino" at the basement was rigidly connected to the foundation. Moreover, in light of the recent advances in the field of earthquake engineering, past studies about the Tower must be revised. Therefore, the present research aims at providing new data and results about the structural response of the Tower under earthquake. As regards the experimental assessment of the Tower, the dynamic response of the structure recorded during some earthquakes has been analyzed in the time- and frequency-domain. An Array 2D test has been performed in the Square of Miracles to identify a soil profile suitable for site response analyses, thus allowing the definition of the free-field seismic inputs at the base of the Tower. On the other hand, a synthetic evaluation of the seismic input in terms of response spectra has been done by means of a hybrid approach that combines Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment methods. Furthermore, natural accelerograms have been selected and scaled properly. A finite element model that takes into account the inclination of the structure has been elaborated, and it has been updated taking into account the available experimental results. Finally, current numerical and experimental efforts for enhancing the seismic characterization of the Tower have been illustrated

Development of an open-source platform for calculating losses from earthquakes

Risk analysis has a critical role in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible risk assessment numerical tools and software. As a response to this need, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) started the development of an open source platform called OpenQuake, for calculating seismic hazard and risk at different scales. Along with this framework, also several other tools to support users creating their own models and visualizing their results are currently being developed, and will be made available as a Modelers Tool Kit (MTK). In this paper, a description of the architecture of OpenQuake is provided, highlighting the current data model, workflow of the calculators and the main challenges raised when running this type of calculations in a global scale. In addition, a case study is presented using the Marmara Region (Turkey) for the calculations, in which the losses for a single event are estimated, as well as probabilistic risk for a 50 years time span

Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site

Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Selection of ground motion prediction equations for the global earthquake model

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. From many available GMPEs, we select those models recommended for use in seismic hazard assessments in the Global Earthquake Model. We present a GMPE selection procedure that evaluates multidimensional ground motion trends (e.g., with respect to magnitude, distance, and structural period), examines functional forms, and evaluates published quantitative tests of GMPE performance against independent data. Our recommendations include: four models, based principally on simulations, for stable continental regions; three empirical models for interface and in-slab subduction zone events; and three empirical models for active shallow crustal regions. To approximately incorporate epistemic uncertainties, the selection process accounts for alternate representations of key GMPE attributes, such as the rate of distance attenuation, which are defensible from available data. Recommended models for each domain will change over time as additional GMPEs are developed

A framework for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of NG distribution networks

Lifelines are essential infrastructures for human activities and the economic developm ent of a region. Lifelines vulnerability reduction is an actual question, particularly with reference to NaTech events, like earthquakes. In this regard, worldwide past seismic experiences revealed heavy damages to NG distribution networks. It is therefore essential to perform seismic risk assessment of NG buried pipelines systems with the aim to identify potential criticalities and avoid significant consequences. For such reasons, this work illustrates the proposal of a probabilistic framework for seismic risk assessment of NG lifelines. The proposed procedure is subsequently applied to a specific case study in Italy to highlight its feasibility

Hard-Site κ0 (Kappa) calculations for Christchurch, New Zealand, and comparison with local ground-motion prediction, models

The 2010–2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence generated a large number of near‐source earthquake recordings, with the vast majority of large events occurring within 30 km of Christchurch, New Zealand’s second largest city. We utilize the dataset to estimate the site attenuation parameter, κ0, at seven rock and stiff‐soil stations in New Zealand’s GeoNet seismic network. As part of this study, an orientation‐independent definition of κ is proposed to minimize the influence of observed high‐frequency 2D site effects. Minimum magnitude limits for the traditional high‐frequency fitting method are proposed, based on the effect of the source corner frequency. A dependence of κ0 on ground‐shaking level is also observed, in which events with large peak ground accelerations (PGAs) have lower κ0 values than events with small PGAs. This observation is not fully understood, but if such a trend holds in future investigations, it may influence how κ0 is used in hazard assessments for critical facilities. κ0 values calculated from Fourier amplitude spectra of acceleration (κ0,AS) are compared with the native κ0 of local, empirical, ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), calculated using the inverse random vibration theory method (κ0,IRVT). κ0,IRVT is found to be independent of magnitude and distance and agrees with the average κ0,AS for the region. κ0,IRVT does not scale strongly with VS30, indicating that current GMPEs may be capturing the average kappa effect through the VS30 scaling. The results from this study are of particular interest for site‐specific ground‐motion prediction studies as well as for GMPE adjustments between different regions or rock types

Analysis of the unusual earthquake of 13 August 2006 in Michoacán, México

The moderate earthquake of 13 August 2006 which occurred in the coastal area of Michoacán, México, offered the first opportunity to study an earthquake that has a focal mechanism oriented practically perpendicular to the vast majority of the earthquakes occurring along the subduction zone of the Mexican Pacific continental margin. The location and focal mechanism estimated in this study are in close agreement with those estimated by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) project and the US Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) and place the earthquake in a complex tectonic region where 3 lithospheric plates converge. Our review shows that for the most severe historical earthquakes in the area the seismic recurrence period has expired, consequently the seismic hazard of this region is high and the analysis of the unusual event must be considered important. The main purposes of this study are (i) re-esti- mate the location and focal mechanism of the unusual event by using available seismic records close to the source, (ii) conduct a tectonic analysis of the area in relation with the previous fault plane estimated, (iii) evaluate the peak ground accelerations generated for this particular thrust event relative to those occurring during the more common events and (iv) generate the isoseismal map. The analysis of the intensities of this event together with a tectonic analysis of the area where this event occurred, attest to an unexpected behavior of this event in this region.National Autonomous University of MexicoUniversity of Colim

Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation

Seismic hazard analyses (SHA) are routinely carried out around the world to understand the hazard, and consequently the risk, posed by earthquake activity. Whether single scenario, deterministic analyses, or state-of-the art probabilistic approaches, considering all possible events, a founding pillar of SHA is the estimation of the ground-shaking field from potential future earthquakes. Early models accounted for simple observations, such that ground shaking from larger earthquakes is stronger and that ground motion tends to attenuate rapidly away from the earthquake source. The first ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were, therefore, developed with as few as two principal predictor variables: magnitude and distance. Despite the significant growth of computer power over the last few decades, and with it the possibility to compute kinematic or dynamic rupture models coupled with simulations of 3D wave propagation, the simple parametric GMPE has remained the tool of choice for hazard analysts. There are numerous reasons for this. First and foremost GMPEs are robust and reliable within the model space considered during their derivation, and many can be extrapolated to a degree beyond this space with some confidence. With ever expanding datasets and improved metadata the models are becoming more and more useful: a range of predictor variables are now used, describing the source, path and site effects in detail. GMPEs are also relatively easy to implement and computationally inexpensive. Despite this, probabilistic hazard calculations using GMPEs and accounting for uncertainties can still take several days to run. Full simulation-based approaches, therefore, clearly lie outside the computation budget afforded to most projects. As well as the ever expanding list of predictor variables, other recent developments have also significantly improved the predictive power of GMPEs. This has allowed them to maintain their advantage over more `physical' simulation techniques. Possibly the biggest aspect of this is not related to the median ground-shaking field, but rather its variability (and correlation in space and with oscillator period). This is a major advantage of empirical as opposed to simulation approaches, which typically struggle to replicate the covariance of input variables and, consequently, the variance of the ground motion. In this article we summarize some of the recent advances in ground motion prediction equations, including their application in SHA. We begin with a summary of the current state-of-the-art, then introduce the main additional predictor variables now used. Region- and event-type (tectonic or induced) specific predictions and adjustments are then discussed. Additional topics include advances in estimating ground-motion variability (epistemic and aleatory) and expanding GMPEs to predict other intensity measures or waveform features. The article concludes with a discussion on the path forward in earthquake ground motion prediction