Exit, Entry and industry turbulence in Austrian Manufacturing, 1981-1994

This research explores both industry and temporal aspects of entry, exit and industry turbulence in Austrian manufacturing in the period between 1981 to 1994. It is shown that while the net entry of both firms and establishments is quite stable over time, exit and especially the turnover and volatility of firms is influenced more by temporal effects. A regression analysis into the determinants of industry dynamics associated with entry and exit shows that sunk costs, scale economies and industry growth are primary determinants for different entry and exit regimes across 2-digit sectors, while profitability is found to be significant for dynamics related to exit but not for the entry of firms. The net entry dynamics of firms and establishments are found to be different in regard to capital intensity and profitability.exit, entry; industry turbulence; Austrian manufacturing

Multinational Enterprises and Their Domestic Counterparts: Past Research, Current Issues and Future Directions

This paper reviews and summarises the results of selected empirical studies on performance gaps between multinational enterprises and their domestic counterparts. Performance gaps arise in such fields as productivity, profitability, wages, skills, factor intensity and growth. Of central interest is the question to what extent is foreign ownership an explanatory factor of performance gaps? Empirical evidence supports the existence of performance gaps between foreign and domestic firms, yet foreign ownership is a much less important explanatory factor than normally assumed. Structural factors like industry, size and multi-nationality per se are more important. It is argued that such results are broadly consistent with those derived in the literatures on ownership change, on foreign entry and on spillovers. The concluding section discusses the normative issue whether there is a case for investment promotion policies to discriminate between firms on the basis of performance gaps by ownership.multinational enterprises; foreign ownership, domestic firms, Foreign Direct Investment; performance gaps; firm performance

Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a post-Keynesian macro model

The paper investigates the relation between effective demand, income distribution and unemployment empirically. Its aim is to evaluate Keynesian, Kaldorian and neoclassical hypotheses about the determination of labor market variables. To do so, a vector autoregression model consisting of capital accumulation, capacity utilization, the profit share, unemployment and the growth of labor productivity is estimated. A general post-Keynesian model following the lines of Kalecki and Kaldor is presented and provides the specification for a structural VAR. The model is estimated for the USA, UK and France.Keynesian economics; macroeconomics; capital accumulation; distribution; unemployment; structural vectorautoregression

The Slowdown of Accumulation and the Rise of European Unemployment

The paper aims at testing empirically two Keynesian hypotheses. First that increasing financial investment is one of the major causes for the slowdown in capital accumulation and, second, that this slowdown is one of major factors for rising unemployment rates. After presenting evidence from the National Accounts for the rising importance of dividend and interest income, econometric tests are performed for Germany, France, UK and the USA, and for the employment regressions, additionally for Italy. The choice of countries being determined by the interest in European unemployment and limited data availability. Overall, the findings are supportive of both hypotheses.European Unemployment; Keynesian theory; capital accumulation

On the Empirics of Minimum Wages and Employment: Stylized Facts for The Austrian Industry

We ask for the empirical evidence of the textbook theory of minimum wages for the Austrian Industry. The bargaining result of unions and firms is interpreted as a minimum wage, as the bargaining situation in Austria may be described best by a "right to manage-model". Based on the analysis of micro-founded "employment functions" in contrast to the predictions of the textbook analysis no significant negative effect of minimum wages on employment is found.Minimum Wages; Employment; Austrian Industry

Direct Versus Indirect FDI: Impact On Domestic Exports And Employment

One of the specific characteristics of Austrian Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) abroad is that a large part is carried out by firms, which themselves are affiliates of foreign Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). Such investment is termed indirect FDI in order to distinguish it from direct FDI, made by Austrian-owned firms. The objective of this paper is to analyse, whether the relatively better domestic employment performance of domestic firms (direct FDI) compared to foreign-owned firms (indirect FDI) can be linked to FDI abroad. Based on an analysis of the sales and trade structure of a sample of Austrian investors in Central and East European Countries (CEECs), this paper tests the hypothesis that these two groups of investors have different motives to invest in CEECs and therefore their activities in CEECs differ by type (sales affiliate, production abroad) and consequently the employment effects at home. Regression results confirm that direct FDI are more strongly determined by labour costs and exhibit an employment pattern related to a deeper international division of labour (including production), while indirect FDI is based relatively more on market seeking investment. Empirical results also confirm that employment effects at home differ. The positive (negative) effect of one additional unit of parent (affiliate) sales on domestic employment for indirect FDI compared to direct FDI is larger (smaller). The - despite this empirical fact - relatively better domestic employment performance of direct FDI is explained by their superior sales performance, resulting from restructuring their international division of labour.Foreign Direct Investment

Random Walks and Non-Linear Paths in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications

This paper investigates whether the inherent non-stationarity of macroeconomic time series is entirely due to a random walk or also to non-linear components. Applying the numerical tools of the analysis of dynamical systems to long time series for the US, we reject the hypothesis that these series are generated solely by a linear stochastic process. Contrary to the Real Business Cycle theory that attributes the irregular behavior of the system to exogenous random factors, we maintain that the fluctuations in the time series we examined cannot be explained only by means of external shocks plugged into linear autoregressive models. A dynamical and non-linear explanation may be useful for the double aim of describing and forecasting more accurately the evolution of the system. Linear growth models that find empirical verification on linear econometric analysis, are therefore seriously called in question. Conversely non-linear dynamical models may enable us to achieve a more complete information about economic phenomena from the same data sets used in the empirical analysis which are in support of Real Business Cycle Theory. We conclude that Real Business Cycle theory and more in general the unit root autoregressive models are an inadequate device for a satisfactory understanding of economic time series. A theoretical approach grounded on non-linear metric methods, may however allow to identify non-linear structures that endogenously generate fluctuations in macroeconomic time series.Random Walks, Real Business Cycle Theory, Chaos

A Cross-Country Study on Okun's Law

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). In this article we investigate Okun's law for 15 OECD countries and check for its the structural stability. By using data on employment and the labor force we infer whether structural instability is caused either from the demand side or the supply side.Okun's Law; Time Variing Parameter Models

The creative response in economic development: the case of information processing technologies in US manufacturing, 1870-1930

This paper presents a theoretical framework along "Classical" lines in which Schumpeter's concept of "Creative Response" is linked to a theory of induced innovation and the concept of technological regimes. We devote particular attention to the role of indivisibilities between factors of production. On the basis of this framework, we study the adoption of early information technologies, such as typewriters, calculators or Hollerith machines in US manufacturing in the period between 1870 and 1930. We show how the presence of a distinct bias in technical change in US manufacturing led to the opening of a window of opportunity for early information technologies, and how the presence of this bias influenced the technological search and adoption process of firms and how this found its final reflection in the rules and heuristics of the new regimemulation is found.Technological regimes; systemic innovation; adoption of technologies; path dependence; information technology 1870-1930

Financialization and the Slowdown of Accumulation

Over the past decades financial investment of non-financial businesses has been rising and accumulation of capital goods has been declining. The first part of the paper offers a novel theory to explain this phenomenon. Financialization, the shareholder revolution and the development of a market for corporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thus changed management priorities, leading to a reduction in the desired growth rate. In the second part the link between accumulation and financialization is tested econometrically by means of a time series analysis of aggregate business investment for USA, UK, France, and Germany. Extensive test of robustness are performed. For the first three countries evidence that confirms the negative effect of financialization on accumulation is found. A revised version of the paper is forthcoming in the Cambridge Journalof Economics. Please contact the author for the revised version.financialization; business investment; class analysis; theory of the firm