Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent microstructure approach to exchange rates' has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows. This suggests that investor heterogeneity might be key to understanding exchange rate dynamics, in contrast to the common representative agent approach in macroeconomic models of exchange rate determination. To explore this issue, we introduce investor heterogeneity into an otherwise standard monetary model of exchange rate determination. There are two types of heterogeneity: dispersed information about fundamentals and non-fundamentals based heterogeneity (e.g., liquidity traders). We show that information dispersion leads to magnification and endogenous persistence of the impact of non-fundamentals trade on the exchange rate rational confusion about the source of exchange rate fluctuations. Higher order expectations, familiar from Keynes' beauty contest', partly contribute to these results. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence on the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals: (i)fundamentals play little role in explaining exchange rate movements in the short to medium run, (ii) over longer horizons the exchange rate is primarily driven by fundamentals, (iii) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals.

Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent "microstructure approach to exchange rates" has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows. This suggests that investors heterogeneity might be key to understanding exchange rate dynamics, in contrast to the common representative agent approach in macroeconomic models of exchange rate determination. To explore this issue, we introduce investor heterogeneity into an otherwise standard monetary model of exchange rate determination. There are two types of heterogeneity: dispersed information about fundamentals and non-fundamentals based heterogeneity (e.g., liquidity traders). We show that information dispersion leads to magnification and endogenous persistence of the impact of non-fundamentals trade on the exchange rate, both resulting from rational confusion about the source of exchange rate fluctuations. Higher order expectations, familiar from Keynes' "beauty contest", partly contribute to these results. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence on the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals: (i) fundamentals play little role in explaining exchange rate movements in the short to medium run, (ii) over longer horizons the exchange rate is primarily driven by fundamentals, (iii) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor for future fundamentals.

The Dual of Supersymmetric SU(2k) with an Antisymmetric Tensor and Composite Dualities

We suggest a dual to an $SU(2k)$ Susy gauge theory containing an antisymmetric tensor, \nf fundamentals and \nfb anti-fundamentals. This is done by expanding the theory into an equivalent description with two gauge groups and then performing known duality tranformations on each gauge group separately. Chiral operators, mass perturbations and flat directions are discussed.Comment: 17 pages, Harvma

Spectra of Urea and Thiourea in the 3µ Region

Observations are reported on the polarized infrared spectra of single crystals of urea and thiourea in the 3µ region. Complex structures accompanying the N [Single Bond] H fundamentals appear, at least in considerable part, to be attributable to combinations and overtones of fundamentals in the neighborhood of 1650 cm^—1

Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals

This paper investigates fundamentals-based exchange rate predictability from a different perspective. We focus on predicting currency swings (major trends in depreciation or appreciation) rather than on quantitative changes of exchange rates. Having used a nonparametric approach to identify swings in exchange rates, we examine the links between fundamentals and swings in exchange rates using both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests. We use data from 12 developed countries, and our empirical evidence suggests that the uncovered interest parity fundamentals and Taylor rule model with interest rate smoothing are strong predictors of exchange rate swings.exchange rate swings, fundamentals