Latent Markov model for longitudinal binary data: An application to the performance evaluation of nursing homes

Performance evaluation of nursing homes is usually accomplished by the repeated administration of questionnaires aimed at measuring the health status of the patients during their period of residence in the nursing home. We illustrate how a latent Markov model with covariates may effectively be used for the analysis of data collected in this way. This model relies on a not directly observable Markov process, whose states represent different levels of the health status. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we apply an EM algorithm implemented by means of certain recursions taken from the literature on hidden Markov chains. Of particular interest is the estimation of the effect of each nursing home on the probability of transition between the latent states. We show how the estimates of these effects may be used to construct a set of scores which allows us to rank these facilities in terms of their efficacy in taking care of the health conditions of their patients. The method is used within an application based on data concerning a set of nursing homes located in the Region of Umbria, Italy, which were followed for the period 2003--2005.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS230 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Tutorial on Bayesian Nonparametric Models

A key problem in statistical modeling is model selection, how to choose a model at an appropriate level of complexity. This problem appears in many settings, most prominently in choosing the number ofclusters in mixture models or the number of factors in factor analysis. In this tutorial we describe Bayesian nonparametric methods, a class of methods that side-steps this issue by allowing the data to determine the complexity of the model. This tutorial is a high-level introduction to Bayesian nonparametric methods and contains several examples of their application.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figure

Deep Learning Techniques for Music Generation -- A Survey

This paper is a survey and an analysis of different ways of using deep learning (deep artificial neural networks) to generate musical content. We propose a methodology based on five dimensions for our analysis: Objective - What musical content is to be generated? Examples are: melody, polyphony, accompaniment or counterpoint. - For what destination and for what use? To be performed by a human(s) (in the case of a musical score), or by a machine (in the case of an audio file). Representation - What are the concepts to be manipulated? Examples are: waveform, spectrogram, note, chord, meter and beat. - What format is to be used? Examples are: MIDI, piano roll or text. - How will the representation be encoded? Examples are: scalar, one-hot or many-hot. Architecture - What type(s) of deep neural network is (are) to be used? Examples are: feedforward network, recurrent network, autoencoder or generative adversarial networks. Challenge - What are the limitations and open challenges? Examples are: variability, interactivity and creativity. Strategy - How do we model and control the process of generation? Examples are: single-step feedforward, iterative feedforward, sampling or input manipulation. For each dimension, we conduct a comparative analysis of various models and techniques and we propose some tentative multidimensional typology. This typology is bottom-up, based on the analysis of many existing deep-learning based systems for music generation selected from the relevant literature. These systems are described and are used to exemplify the various choices of objective, representation, architecture, challenge and strategy. The last section includes some discussion and some prospects.Comment: 209 pages. This paper is a simplified version of the book: J.-P. Briot, G. Hadjeres and F.-D. Pachet, Deep Learning Techniques for Music Generation, Computational Synthesis and Creative Systems, Springer, 201