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Fully Bayesian inference for α-stable distributions using a Poisson series representation
In this paper we develop an approach to Bayesian Monte Carlo inference for skewed α-stable distributions. Based on a series representation of the stable law in terms of infinite summations of random Poisson process arrival times, our framework leads to a simple representation in terms of conditionally Gaussian distributions for certain latent variables. Inference can therefore be carried out straightforwardly using techniques such as auxiliary variables versions of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The Poisson series representation (PSR) is further extended to practical application by introducing an approximation of the series residual terms based on exact moment calculations. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to skewed α-stable simulated and real-world data, successfully estimating the distribution parameter values and being consistent with other (non-Bayesian) approaches. The methods are highly suitable for incorporation into hierarchical Bayesian models, and in this case the conditionally Gaussian structure of our model will lead to very efficient computations compared to other approaches.Godsill acknowledges partial funding for the work from the EPSRC BTaRoT project EP/K020153/1, and Tatjana Lemke acknowledges PhD funding from Fraunhofer ITWM, Kaiserslautern.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsp.2015.08.01
Stochastic expansions using continuous dictionaries: L\'{e}vy adaptive regression kernels
This article describes a new class of prior distributions for nonparametric
function estimation. The unknown function is modeled as a limit of weighted
sums of kernels or generator functions indexed by continuous parameters that
control local and global features such as their translation, dilation,
modulation and shape. L\'{e}vy random fields and their stochastic integrals are
employed to induce prior distributions for the unknown functions or,
equivalently, for the number of kernels and for the parameters governing their
features. Scaling, shape, and other features of the generating functions are
location-specific to allow quite different function properties in different
parts of the space, as with wavelet bases and other methods employing
overcomplete dictionaries. We provide conditions under which the stochastic
expansions converge in specified Besov or Sobolev norms. Under a Gaussian error
model, this may be viewed as a sparse regression problem, with regularization
induced via the L\'{e}vy random field prior distribution. Posterior inference
for the unknown functions is based on a reversible jump Markov chain Monte
Carlo algorithm. We compare the L\'{e}vy Adaptive Regression Kernel (LARK)
method to wavelet-based methods using some of the standard test functions, and
illustrate its flexibility and adaptability in nonstationary applications.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS889 the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Uncovering Rat Hippocampal Population Codes During Spatial Navigation
Rodent hippocampal population codes represent important spatial information
about the environment during navigation. Several computational methods have
been developed to uncover the neural representation of spatial topology
embedded in rodent hippocampal ensemble spike activity. Here we extend our
previous work and propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to infer rat
hippocampal population codes during spatial navigation. To tackle the model
selection problem, we leverage a nonparametric Bayesian model. Specifically, to
analyze rat hippocampal ensemble spiking activity, we apply a hierarchical
Dirichlet process-hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) using two Bayesian inference
methods, one based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the other based on
variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian
approaches on recordings from a freely-behaving rat navigating in an open field
environment. We find that MCMC-based inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
(HMC) hyperparameter sampling is flexible and efficient, and outperforms VB and
MCMC approaches with hyperparameters set by empirical Bayes
Deep Exponential Families
We describe \textit{deep exponential families} (DEFs), a class of latent
variable models that are inspired by the hidden structures used in deep neural
networks. DEFs capture a hierarchy of dependencies between latent variables,
and are easily generalized to many settings through exponential families. We
perform inference using recent "black box" variational inference techniques. We
then evaluate various DEFs on text and combine multiple DEFs into a model for
pairwise recommendation data. In an extensive study, we show that going beyond
one layer improves predictions for DEFs. We demonstrate that DEFs find
interesting exploratory structure in large data sets, and give better
predictive performance than state-of-the-art models
Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or
temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example,
understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This
article reviews recent progress in the statistical modeling of spatial
extremes, starting with sketches of the necessary elements of extreme value
statistics and geostatistics. The main types of statistical models thus far
proposed, based on latent variables, on copulas and on spatial max-stable
processes, are described and then are compared by application to a data set on
rainfall in Switzerland. Whereas latent variable modeling allows a better fit
to marginal distributions, it fits the joint distributions of extremes poorly,
so appropriately-chosen copula or max-stable models seem essential for
successful spatial modeling of extremes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS376 the Statistical
Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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