Bayesian Approximate Kernel Regression with Variable Selection

Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that provides an effect size analog of each explanatory variable for Bayesian kernel regression models when the kernel is shift-invariant --- for example, the Gaussian kernel. We use function analytic properties of shift-invariant reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to define a linear vector space that: (i) captures nonlinear structure, and (ii) can be projected onto the original explanatory variables. The projection onto the original explanatory variables serves as an analog of effect sizes. The specific function analytic property we use is that shift-invariant kernel functions can be approximated via random Fourier bases. Based on the random Fourier expansion we propose a computationally efficient class of Bayesian approximate kernel regression (BAKR) models for both nonlinear regression and binary classification for which one can compute an analog of effect sizes. We illustrate the utility of BAKR by examining two important problems in statistical genetics: genomic selection (i.e. phenotypic prediction) and association mapping (i.e. inference of significant variants or loci). State-of-the-art methods for genomic selection and association mapping are based on kernel regression and linear models, respectively. BAKR is the first method that is competitive in both settings.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables; theory added; new simulations presented; references adde

Moment-Matching Polynomials

We give a new framework for proving the existence of low-degree, polynomial approximators for Boolean functions with respect to broad classes of non-product distributions. Our proofs use techniques related to the classical moment problem and deviate significantly from known Fourier-based methods, which require the underlying distribution to have some product structure. Our main application is the first polynomial-time algorithm for agnostically learning any function of a constant number of halfspaces with respect to any log-concave distribution (for any constant accuracy parameter). This result was not known even for the case of learning the intersection of two halfspaces without noise. Additionally, we show that in the "smoothed-analysis" setting, the above results hold with respect to distributions that have sub-exponential tails, a property satisfied by many natural and well-studied distributions in machine learning. Given that our algorithms can be implemented using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) with a polynomial kernel, these results give a rigorous theoretical explanation as to why many kernel methods work so well in practice