An assessment of the social ecological system of Mabira forest and environs: implications for vulnerability to climate variability

Tropical forests are attracting attention in climate change debates considering the fundamental role they play as carbon sinks. Mabira Central Forest Reserve (CFR) found in the Lake Victoria basin region and of significance in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. It has however undergone drastic degradation since the 1970s and its social economic ecological and environmental functions are at risk. The present study assessed the Social Ecological System (SES) of Mabira CFR and environs as well as the implications for vulnerability to climate variability. It focused on; i) assessment of the spatial temporal changes of Mabira CFR; to which Landsat images of 1975, 1986, 2000 and 2015 were used in combination with ground truthing for a successful classification of land use/cover types. ii) Determine the implications of land use/cover types and forest management options for above ground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC); here Velle, (1995) allometric equation was adopted for the AGB while the Walkley and Black (1934) was used to determine soil organic carbon iii) Determine the implications of land use cover change for livelihood and vulnerability to climate change impacts; to this the Social Ecological systems framework by Ostrom (2009) was adopted to understand the vulnerability implications for land use cover change (LUCC) and Climate variability in a forest based community. The study reveals that heavy deforestation and degradation continue to pose threats to Mabira CFR and environs. Major drivers of LUCC are: population expansion, loss of soil fertility, poor agricultural practices, establishment of roadside markets, industrialization and unclear forestry boundary. Findings indicate that although forest comprised the biggest coverage between 1975 and 2000, it has faced massive reduction between 2000 and 2015. Major forest conversions have been to subsistence farming (5.94%). The implications of LUCC are reflected in; the exposure of soils to degradation as seen from deforestation; soil erosion; carbon sequestration and climate variability constraining livelihoods. AGB and carbon was found highest in the strict nature reserve where on average the parameters noted above were found to be bigger. The recreation buffer had less carbon compared to the strict nature reserve; however the production zone, which had scattered trees with smaller parameters, registered the lowest average total AGB and carbon. Results indicate a perfectly strong relationship between the AGB and carbon variables. Results also indicate that approximately 6,771092.344 tonnes are sunk in the strict nature reserve. SOC analyzed based on the soil carbon percentage content. In terms of soil depth, the 0-10cm and 10-20cm soil layers had relatively similar variations of least square means for carbon than at 20-30cm soil layer. The highest SOC was observed in the soil surface of 0-10 cm depth, with the highest mean of 2.78 % across all the management zones. The amount of soil organic matter also varied with land use /cover types. Study findings reveal that LUCC and land management have a direct influence on soil organic carbon accumulation. Results indicate that LUCC implications for AGB and SOC as well as climate variability lead to livelihood vulnerability. Climate hazards experienced have affected SES, temperature variation range between 1oC -2oC. These variations are likely to increase vulnerability. This study recommends mapping of LUCC to identify priority areas for intervention. Priority should be given to reducing deforestation and restore degraded areas. Future research should focus on building adaptive capacity for forest based communities to mitigate climate change, improving forest tenure as a strategy for climate change impacts, integrating climate change into forest policy reviews