A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility

While up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention was fully sterilized, Japanese monetary authorities left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity trap in 1999. According to previous research on foreign exchange intervention, unsterilized intervention has a higher probability of success than sterilized intervention. Based on a GARCH framework and change point detection, we test for a structural break in the effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange intervention. We find a changing impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on exchange rate volatility at the turn of the millennium when Japanese foreign exchange intervention started to remain unsterilized. JEL Classification: E58, F31, F33, G15Change Point Detection, Exchange rate volatility, foreign exchange intervention, GARCH, Japan, Structural Breaks

Foreign exchange volatility is priced in equities

This paper finds that standard asset pricing models fail to explain the significantly positive delta hedging errors from writing options on foreign exchange futures. Foreign exchange volatility does influence stock returns, however. The volatility of the JPY/USD exchange rate predicts the time series of stock returns and is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Foreign exchange volatility risk might be priced because of its relation to foreign exchange level risk. ; Earlier title: Is foreign exchange delta hedging risk priced?Foreign exchange ; Assets (Accounting) ; Prices

Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation Techniques in Microfinance Industry

Many borrowing microfinance institutions (MFIs) are not adequately managing their exposure to foreign exchange rate risk. The microfinance industry has increased its awareness and understanding of foreign exchange risk, however, there has not been any significant actions taken at the industry level. The best solution for an MFI is to avoid foreign exchange risk altogether and fund itself in local currency. There a number of strategies to accomplish this: Borrow from your local bank; Negotiate local currency loans from international lenders; Access local capital markets; Establish Policies on Foreign Exchange Management and Exposure; Use guarantees to increase local currency financing; Define foreign exchange risk tolerance levels; Negotiate back-to-back loans; Measure and monitor foreign exchange exposure; Index local currency lending.Microfinance Institutions, foreign exchange risk

PENSION FUND MANAGERS BEHAVIOR IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

The effects of the Pension Fund Managers (PFMs) behavior on the foreign exchange market may be important, given the increasing size of their portfolio and their possible market power. Some authors argue that when big investors like PFMs trade large volumes in the foreign exchange market, they may influence other agents’ decisions, increasing the impact of the PFMs’ actions on the exchange rate. However, when PFMs have market power, they will take into account their influence on the exchange rate and will moderate their trading volume. Hence, there might be a mitigating effect that reduces the pressure on the exchange rate. This paper seeks to demonstrate the existence of this effect under different theoretical foreign exchange market structures.pension funds, foreign exchange market, market power.

A market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange intervention

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination we employ to investigate the impact of foreign exchange intervention on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation we show i) how foreign exchange intervention influences exchange rates via both a portfolio-balance and a signalling channel and ii) derive a series of testable implications which are coherent with a large body of empirical research. Our investigation also proposes some normative recommendations, as we show i) that in extreme circumstances large scale foreign exchange intervention can have destabilizing effects for the functioning of FX markets and ii) that the route chosen for the implementation of official intervention has important implications for its impact on exchange rates and on market conditions. JEL Classification: D82, G14, G15Exchange Rate Dynamics, Foreign Exchange Micro Structure, Official Intervention, order flow

Bernanke Was Right: Currency Manipulation Policy in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper examines the currency manipulation policy in the foreign exchange markets of thirteen emerging countries using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework to link the dynamics of real exchange rates and foreign reserves. It is found that for Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, exchange rate shocks are the main source of fluctuations in foreign reserves over all time horizons. Empirical evidence suggests that these countries intervene substantially in the foreign exchange markets in order to promote export competitiveness.Official Intervention, Foreign Reserves

Latin American foreign exchange intervention - Updated

We examine Latin American foreign exchange intervention in a framework where the exchange rate regime is endogenous and there exists an inefficient, equilibrium foreign exchange intervention bias. The model suggests that greater central bank independence is associated with lesser intervention in the foreign exchange market, and also with leaning-against-the-wind intervention. Both results are confirmed by data from 13 Latin American countries.foreign exchange intervention; exchange rates; Latin America

The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection

We study the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate since the early 1990s based on a GARCH framework. Using daily intervention data provided by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, we show that the success of interventions varies over time. Measured on the total sample between 1991 and 2003 the estimation results for the impact of foreign exchange intervention on the yen/dollar exchange rate volatility are inconclusive. Sub-dividing the sample into yearly sub-periods and into intervention clusters suggests a structural break. From 1991 up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention seems to have increased the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate. In contrast in the new millennium, Japa- nese foreign exchange intervention is associated with less exchange rate volatility. Non-arbitrary segmentation by change point detection leads to similar results. The evidence in favour of recent successful Japanese foreign exchange intervention is line with theoretical evidence which implies successful intervention is the case of un-sterilized intervention.Japan, Foreign Exchange Intervention, Exchange Rate Volatility, GARCH, Change Point Detection, Liquidity Trap

Investigating Sources of Unanticipated Exposure in Industry Stock Returns

This paper investigates the degree of both foreign exchange rate and interest rate exposure of industry level portfolios in the G7. Our paper draws on the efficient market hypothesis and examines the extent of unexpected foreign exchange (and interest rate) exposure rather than the standard approach of focusing purely on the change in foreign exchange (and interest rate) exposure. The results from our baseline regressions are consistent with those previously found in the literature that there is little evidence of exchange rate exposure in most markets — this is the exchange rate exposure puzzle. The second critical element of our analysis is that we investigate the sources of the exposure and examine the existence of indirect levels of both foreign exchange and interest rate exposure. The findings of exposure to foreign exchange rates and interest rates are extensive for industry sectors in the G7 economies when we take account of the possible channels of influence. Results indicate key differences between countries in terms of the relative importance of these cash flow and discount rate channels.Foreign exchange, exposure, interest rates, stock returns, international finance

A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns

Researchers have long studied the reaction of foreign exchange returns to macroeconomic announcements in order to infer changes in policy reaction functions and foreign exchange micro­structure, including the speed of market reaction to news and how order flow helps impound public and private information into prices. These studies have often been disconnected, however; and this article critically reviews and evaluates the literature on announcement effects on foreign exchange returns.Foreign exchange