3,456 research outputs found
Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Based on Multi-level Solar Measurements
The growing proliferation in solar deployment, especially at distribution
level, has made the case for power system operators to develop more accurate
solar forecasting models. This paper proposes a solar photovoltaic (PV)
generation forecasting model based on multi-level solar measurements and
utilizing a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model to
improve the training and achieve better forecasts. The proposed model consists
of four stages of data preparation, establishment of fitting model, model
training, and forecasting. The model is tested under different weather
conditions. Numerical simulations exhibit the acceptable performance of the
model when compared to forecasting results obtained from two-level and
single-level studies
Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants
Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include
various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business
knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of
these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced
CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced
techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data
to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation.
One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the
legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a
great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to
increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production
losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of
the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent
optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the
energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends
to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent
outputs for the di erent techniques
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Application of the Least Square Support Vector Machine for point-to-point forecasting of the PV Power
In today's industrial world, the growing capacity of renewable energy sources is a crucial factor for sustainable power generation. The application of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources, as a clean and safe renewable energy resource has found great attention among the consumers in the recent decades. Accurate forecasting of the generated PV power is an important task for scheduling the generators and planning the consumption patterns of customers to save electricity costs. To this end, it is necessary to develop a global model of the generated power based on the effective factors which are mainly the solar radiation intensity and the ambient weather temperature. As a result of the wide numerical range of these parameters and various weather conditions, a large training database must be used for developing the models, which results in high-computational complexity of the algorithms used for training the models. In this paper, a novel algorithm for point to point prediction of the generated power based on the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) has been proposed which can handle the large training database with a very fewer deal of computation and benefits from reasonable accuracy and generalization capability.
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