Technology Forecasting Using Data Mining and Semantics: First Annual Report

The planning and management of research and development is a challenging process which is compounded by the large amounts of information which is available. The goal of this project is to mine science and technology databases for patterns and trends which facilitate the formation of research strategies. Examples of the types of information sources which we exploit are diverse and include academic journals, patents, blogs and news stories. The intended outputs of the project include growth forecasts for various technological sectors (with an emphasis on sustainable energy), an improved understanding of the underlying research landscape, as well as the identification of influential researchers or research groups. This paper focuses on the development of techniques to both organize and visualize the data in a way which reflects the semantic relationships between keywords. We studied the use of the joint term frequencies of pairs of keywords, as a means of characterizing this semantic relationship – this is based on the intuition that terms which frequently appear together are more likely to be closely related. Some of the results reported herein describe: (1) Using appropriate tools and methods, exploitable patterns and information can certainly be extracted from publicly available databases, (2) Adaptation of the Normalized Google Distance (NGD) formalism can provide measures of keyword distances that facilitate keyword clustering and hierarchical visualization, (3) Further adaptation of the NGD formalism can be used to provide an asymmetric measure of keyword distances to allow the automatic creation of a keyword taxonomy, and (4) Adaptation of the Latent Semantic Approach (LSA) can be used to identify concepts underlying collections of keywords

A Unified Approach for Taxonomy-based Technology Forecasting

For decision makers and researchers working in a technical domain, understanding the state of their area of interest is of the highest importance. For this reason, we consider in this chapter, a novel framework for Web-based technology forecasting using bibliometrics (i.e. the analysis of information from trends and patterns of scientific publications). The proposed framework consists of a few conceptual stages based on a data acquisition process from bibliographic online repositories: extraction of domainrelevant keywords, the generation of taxonomy of the research field of interests and the development of early growth indicators which helps to find interesting technologies in their first phase of development. To provide a concrete application domain for developing and testing our tools, we conducted a case study in the field of renewable energy and in particular one of its subfields: Waste-to-Energy (W2E). The results on this particular research domain confirm the benefit of our approach

A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization

This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. Information thus obtained is analyzed to predict probable future developments in the technological fields being studied. While using bibliometric techniques to study science and technology is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. As a demonstration, a proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed

Exploring Terms and Taxonomies Relating to the Cyber International Relations Research Field: or are "Cyberspace" and "Cyber Space" the same?

This project has at least two facets to it: (1) advancing the algorithms in the sub-field of bibliometrics often referred to as "text mining" whereby hundreds of thousands of documents (such as journal articles) are scanned and relationships amongst words and phrases are established and (2) applying these tools in support of the Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) research effort. In international relations, it is important that all the parties understand each other. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. As an example, when we started, we assumed that "cyberspace" and "cyber space" were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between "cyber" and "space") and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the taxonomies that would be constructed by our algorithms using "cyberspace" and "cyber space" as seed terms would be basically the same. As it turned out, they were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cyber international relations is so new, understanding the field and how people think about (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal as part of the overall ECIR project

A comparison of taxonomy generation techniques using bibliometric methods : applied to research strategy formulation

Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 86-87).This paper investigates the modeling of research landscapes through the automatic generation of hierarchical structures (taxonomies) comprised of terms related to a given research field. Several different taxonomy generation algorithms are discussed and analyzed within this paper, each based on the analysis of a data set of bibliometric information obtained from a credible online publication database. Taxonomy generation algorithms considered include the Dijsktra-Jamik-Prim's (DJP) algorithm, Kruskal's algorithm, Edmond's algorithm, Heymann algorithm, and the Genetic algorithm. Evaluative experiments are run that attempt to determine which taxonomy generation algorithm would most likely output a taxonomy that is a valid representation of the underlying research landscape.by Steven L. Camiña.M.Eng

Analysis of Renewable Energy Research Hotspots and Trends Based on Bibliometric and Patent Survey

In recent years, renewable energy has taken on an increasingly important role as a result of the depletion of traditional fossil fuels and the pressure of climate change. Due to the advantages of clean energy production and wide availability, research on renewable energy has increased worldwide. We collected data from the Web of Science and the Derwent Innovations Index to analyze research trends in the field of renewable energy. It was found that the number of research achievements in this field has developed rapidly worldwide since 2005. The United States ranks first in the quantity and quality of literature and fourth in the number of authorized patents. China ranks second and first regarding the quantity of literature and authorized patents, respectively. Biomass energy, wind energy, and solar energy are trending research topics in various stages of development. China has maintained close cooperation with the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and other countries

Scientometric Analysis of Technology & Innovation Management Literature

The management of technology and innovation has become an attractive and promising field within the management discipline. Therefore, much insight can be gained by reviewing the Technology & Innovation Management (TIM) research in leading TIM journals to identify and classify the key TIM issues by meta-categories and to identify the current trends. Based on a comprehensive scientometric analysis of 5,591 articles in 10 leading TIM specialty journals from 2005 to 2014, this research revealed several enlightening findings. First, the United States is the major producer of TIM research literature, and the greatest number of papers was published in Research Policy. Among the researchers in the field, M. Song is the most prolific author. Second, the TIM field often plays a bridging role in which the integration of ideas can be grouped into 10 clusters: innovation and firms, new product development (NPD) and marketing strategy, project management, patenting and industry, emerging technologies, science policy, social networks, system modeling and development, business strategy, and knowledge transfer. Third, the connectivity among these terms is highly clustered and a network-based perspective revealed that six new topic clusters are emerging: NPD, technology marketing, patents and intellectual property rights, university-industry cooperation, technology forecasting and roadmapping, and green innovation. Finally, chronological trend analysis of key terms indicates a change in emphasis in TIM research from information systems/technologies to the energy sector and green innovation. The results of the study improve our understanding of the structure of TIM as a field of practice and an academic discipline. This insight provides direction regarding future TIM research opportunities

A machine learning taxonomic classifier for science publications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engineering and Management of Information SystemsThe evolution in scientific production, associated with the growing interdomain collaboration of knowledge and the increasing co-authorship of scientific works remains supported by processes of manual, highly subjective classification, subject to misinterpretation. The very taxonomy on which this same classification process is based is not consensual, with governmental organizations resorting to taxonomies that do not keep up with changes in scientific areas, and indexers / repositories that seek to keep up with those changes. We find a reality distinct from what is expected and that the domains where scientific work is recorded can easily be misrepresentative of the work itself. The taxonomy applied today by governmental bodies, such as the one that regulates scientific production in Portugal, is not enough, is limiting, and promotes classification in areas close to the desired, therefore with great potential for error. An automatic classification process based on machine learning algorithms presents itself as a possible solution to the subjectivity problem in classification, and while it does not solve the issue of taxonomy mismatch this work shows this possibility with proved results. In this work, we propose a classification taxonomy, as well as we develop a process based on machine learning algorithms to solve the classification problem. We also present a set of directions for future work for an increasingly representative classification of evolution in science, which is not intended as airtight, but flexible and perhaps increasingly based on phenomena and not just disciplines.A evolução na produção de ciência, associada à crescente colaboração interdomínios do conhecimento e à também crescente coautoria de trabalhos permanece suportada por processos de classificação manual, subjetiva e sujeita a interpretações erradas. A própria taxonomia na qual assenta esse mesmo processo de classificação não é consensual, com organismos estatais a recorrerem a taxonomias que não acompanham as alterações nas áreas científicas, e indexadores/repositórios que procuram acompanhar essas mesmas alterações. Verificamos uma realidade distinta do espectável e que os domínios onde são registados os trabalhos científicos podem facilmente estar desenquadrados. A taxonomia hoje aplicada pelos organismos governamentais, como o caso do organismo que regulamenta a produção científica em Portugal, não é suficiente, é limitadora, e promove a classificação em domínios aproximados do desejado, logo com grande potencial para erro. Um processo de classificação automática com base em algoritmos de machine learning apresenta-se como uma possível solução para o problema da subjetividade na classificação, e embora não resolva a questão do desenquadramento da taxonomia utilizada, é apresentada neste trabalho como uma possibilidade comprovada. Neste trabalho propomos uma taxonomia de classificação, bem como nós desenvolvemos um processo baseado em machine learning algoritmos para resolver o problema de classificação. Apresentamos ainda um conjunto de direções para trabalhos futuros para uma classificação cada vez mais representativa da evolução nas ciências, que não pretende ser hermética, mas flexível e talvez cada vez mais baseada em fenómenos e não apenas em disciplinas

Trends of Business Model Research: A Bibliometric Analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the evolution of the business model researchwhile identifying the leading trends and suggesting future research directions.   Design/Methodology/Approach:The study consists of bibliometricanalysis, and bibliographic data visualization using the Web of Science (WoS) database, and clusteranalysis using the VOSViewer software.     Findings:The results reveal the exponential growth of the topic favored within the academic literature. The analysis identified eight clusters of co-words in thefield of the businessmodel (BM). Five relevant research trendswere identified in which the topic of the business model (BM) would developin the next years.   Research limitations:The analysis focuses on the field of management, business, finance, and economics literature. The paper describes the research activity concerninga bibliometric analysis. Therefore it does not take into consideration the quality of the publications and methodological issues.   Practical Implications:This study may serve as a model providing useful information for academic and practitioners to analyzethe topic of the business model (BM) within a certain discipline, as well as to identify research areas that need more attention to come up with theoretical and practical implications.   Originality/Value:The analysis structures and consolidates the concept of the business model (BM) in the academic research, providing valuable insights. It identifies future themes for the development of the fieldand its consolidation within the academic and business literature.   Keywords:Business model research, bibliometrics, co-word analysis, research trends, bibliographic mapping   Classification:Literature Revie

Who needs XAI in the Energy Sector? A Framework to Upgrade Black Box Explainability

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based methods in the energy sector challenge companies, organizations, and societies. Organizational issues include traceability, certifiability, explainability, responsibility, and efficiency. Societal challenges include ethical norms, bias, discrimination, privacy, and information security. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) can address these issues in various application areas of the energy sector, e.g., power generation forecasting, load management, and network security operations. We derive Key Topics (KTs) and Design Requirements (DRs) and develop Design Principles (DPs) for efficient XAI applications through Design Science Research (DSR). We analyze 179 scientific articles to identify our 8 KTs for XAI implementation through text mining and topic modeling. Based on the KTs, we derive 15 DRs and develop 18 DPs. After that, we discuss and evaluate our results and findings through expert surveys. We develop a Three-Forces Model as a framework for implementing efficient XAI solutions. We provide recommendations and a further research agenda