In Focus of Comparing with Korean Case

This study predicts the short – term manpower demand of the shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia by applying trend analysis and regression analysis on the relevant industrial indicators. Forecasted results are then compared to the outcomes of the forecasted result for human resource demand in Korea. Coping with Malaysia’s new port development at Straits of Malacca, the over dependency on foreign labour force is highlighted across the mass media. Hence, this study would like to draw focal attention on the urge to gather data from all relevant sub – sectors of shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia; and then forecast in detail the total manpower demand for the abovementioned industry. On top of that, this study also aims to provide a specific overview on the changes of employment trends over the years for all sub – sectors relevant to shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia. This study utilizes data from ‘ Economy Census Report 2011 – Transportation and Storage Services’ published by Department of Statistics Malaysia which is usually updated once in every 5 year starting from 2000 with reference to the year before. Hence, this paper has used data from year 2000 to year 2010 to forecast the required manpower for year 2011. Result shows that the total short – term forecasted human resource demand for year 2011 is 75, 956 people. Comparing to year 2010, it is a slight decrease of 0.44%. Meanwhile, the findings of this study reveals that the sub – sectors of shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia are segregated at the moment. In general, shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia are delegated to be under Ministry of Transport ( MOT ) Malaysia, together with road as well as air transport. Data provisions relevant to shipping and port logistics industry in Malaysia are reflected to be segregated as it is inconsistent with industrial standard of the nation. Instead, data is always provided generally under titles such as ‘ Sea Transport ’, ‘ Cargo Handling and Stevedoring Services’, ‘ Storage and Warehousing ’, ‘ Port Operations ’ and the like in various reports for ‘ Transportation and Storage Services ’. Owing to the distinctive characteristics of the mentioned businesses, this study justified that precise and comprehensive data provision in accordance to a nation’s standard industrial code as what we could find in Korean case, is very fundamental. If Malaysia aims to become unrivalled maritime nation, identifying exact talent gap by investigating all relevant sub – sectors, is necessary. On the other hand, the research limitation of this paper states that the outdated data as well as small data sample size has restricted the quality of this study. Hence, this study proposes Malaysia to constantly update the statistics for accurate short – term forecasts due to the nature of shipping and port logistics industry which is subjected to cornucopian internal and external influences in this ever – changing world. For a better understanding of the changes in employment trend over the years, we will need more data input. Specifically, bigger data sample could be attained in terms of having data for more industrial variables ( such as number of facilities and storages, sales values ) and more years. As a sum, this study intends to call for attention on the specific data provisions for a longer period of time. The former could ensure better overall understanding of the different kinds of business nature and needs within the shipping and port logistics industry; while the latter could more adequately verify the forecasting results obtained. With this, this paper wishes to provide some insights into policy implications for the development of shipping and port logistics industry. To a larger extent, devising good policies which suit the characteristics of respective sub – sectors within shipping and port logistics could definitely facilitate effective nurturing process of talented manpower for shipping and port logistics industry in long term.|본 논문은 말레이시아 (Malaysia) 해운·항만 물류산업의 단기 인력수요 예측에 관하여 연구하였다. 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업과 연관된 지표들을 사용하여 추세분석과 회귀분석을 통해 직접적인 단기 인력수요에 대한 예측치를 제시하였다. 그리고 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업의 인력수요 예측결과를 한국의 해운 항만물류 산업 인력수요 예측결과와 비교하였다. 말라카 해협의 항만개발이 진행됨에 따라 해운 항만물류 산업의 인력수요가 증가하고 있는데, 외국인 노동력자에 대한 의존도가 높은 것이 문제점으로 지적되고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 본 연구는 말레이시아의 해운·항만 물류산업의 인력수요 예측 정확성을 높이기 위해 관련 데이터들을 수집하여 해운 항만물류 산업의 미래 인력수요를 예측해 보고자 하였다. 이 연구는 말레이시아 해운 항마물류 산업의 세부 업종별 소요인력 추세를 분석하고 이를 통해 산업의 전반적인 인력수요를 예측하였다. 말레이시아의 해운·항만 물류산업들은 독립된 산업영역을 구축하고 있지 않다. 말레이시아의 해운 항만 물류산업은 내륙 및 항공 운송산업과 함께 교통부 (Ministry of Transport; MOT)에서 총괄하여 주관하고 있다. 말레이시아 교통부의 해운·항만 물류산업 유관분야에 관해 집계되는 데이터들은 일반적으로 ‘해상운송업’, ‘화물하역 서비스업’, ‘물류창고업’, ‘항만관리 및 운영업’, 그리고 ‘운송 및 보관 서비스업’을 포함하고 있다. 해운 항만물류 산업은 다양한 업종을 포함하고 있으므로, 타 산업과 달리 산업의 세부분류에 따른 데이터의 정의 및 분류를 명확히 할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업의 세부분류의 구분을 한국의 표준산업분류 코드에 기초하여 해당 데이터들을 분류하였다. 말레이시아가 해양강국을 지향한다면 해운 항만물류 산업의 세부업종별 인력 수요와 공급에 대한 조사를 통해 수급상의 정확한 갭을 확인하여야 할 것이다. 또한, 본연구는 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업의 단기 인력수요 예측의 정확성을 높이기 위해서 관련 최신 통계자료들을 지속적으로 집계하여 갱신할 필요가 있다는 것을 제안하였다. 해운·항만 물류산업은 급변하고 있는 세계경기에 따라 지속적으로 대·내외적인 영향을 받고 있다. 그러므로 해운 망만물류 산업의 변화의 추세와 미래동향을 정확히 알기 위해서는 산업 내외의 다양한 관련지표의 수집 뿐만 아니라 이들 데이터를 장기간에 걸쳐 확보하는 것이 필수적이다. 결론적으로 본 연구는 장기간에 걸친 양질의 세분화된 데이터의 수집 및 확보 필요성을 강조한다. 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업의 세부 업종별 테이터는 다양한 업종의 사업특성과 요구사항을 잘 이해할 수 있도록 해주며, 장기간의 데이터는 예측결과의 정확성을 높여준다. 이 연구는 말레이시아 해운 항만물류 산업에 대한 정책의 실행 방향성을 제시하였다. 본 연구를 통해 장기적인 관점에서 말레이시아 해운·항만 물류산업의 효과적인 인력양성이 촉진될 것으로 기대한다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Importance and Objectives of this Research 1 1.2 Methodology and Scope of Research 5 Chapter 2 Literature Review 7 2.1 Theoretical Discussion of Industrial Human Resource Supply and Demand 7 2.1.1 The importance of Human Resource Planning 7 2.1.2 Methodology of Forecasting Human Resource Demand 12 2.1.3 Overview Projections of Human Resource Forecasting across Nations and the Major Labour Market Models 26 2.1.4 Functions of Labour Market Outlook 34 2.1.5 Previous Researches Pertinent to Forecasting Human Resource Demand and Supply Plan 36 2.2 Human Resource Forecasting of Maritime Industry 41 2.2.1 Forecasted Seafarers Shortage by BIMCO / ICS 41 2.3 Human Resource Forecasting in Malaysia 45 2.3.1 The Beginning of Human Resource Planning 45 2.3.2 Agencies Related to Labour Force of Malaysia 46 2.3.3 Structure of Malaysia’s Current Workforce 49 Chapter 3 Malaysia’s Shipping and Port Logistics 50 3.1 Overview of the Maritime Industry of Malaysia 50 3.1.1 Overview of the Maritime Industry of Malaysia 50 3.1.2 Illustration of Malaysia’s Maritime Industry Structure, Maritime Governance Structure, Maritime Cluster as well as Maritime Ancillary and Support Industries 52 3.1.3 Malaysia’s Merchant Fleet Size by Deadweight Tonnes 57 3.2 Economic Contribution of Maritime Industry in Malaysia 58 3.3 Malaysia’s Port and Logistics 64 3.4 Issues Encountered & Future Needed Developments 69 3.5 The Main Challenge - Over – reliance on Foreign Seafarers / Shortage of Local Qualified Seafarers 71 Chapter 4 Data Analysis 73 4.1 Data Inputs for the 5 Sub – sectors with Meaningful Data 74 4.2 Data Analysis of Forecasting Human Resource Demand in Shipping and Port Logistics Malaysia 84 4.2.1 Sea Transport 84 4.2.2 Cargo Handling and Stevedoring Services 87 4.2.3 Storage and Warehousing 90 4.2.4 Port Operation 93 4.2.5 Shipping and Forwarding Companies 96 4.2.6 Summary of the Short – term Forecasted Human Resource Demand for Shipping and Port Logistics Malaysia in 2011 99 4.3 Comparison between Malaysia’s and Korea’s Human Resource Forecast 100 4.3.1 Comparison of Classifications of Sub – sectors for Shipping and Port Logistics in Malaysia and Korea 100 4.3.2 Comparison between Malaysia and Korea Regarding the Input Factors for Human Resource Demand Forecast of Shipping and Port Logistics Industry ( According to Each Sub – sectors ) 103 4.3.3 Comparison between Malaysia and Korea Regarding the Forecasting Approaches and Summary of Meaningful Results of Human Resource Demand Forecasts for Shipping and Port Logistics Industry ( According to Each Sub – sectors ) 105 4.4 Discussion and Implementation 107 4.5 Planning Human Resource Supply 113 Chapter 5 Conclusion 116 5.1 Review of Findings 116 5.2 Research Limitations 117 5.3 Implications and Recommendations for Future Research 121 Reference 123Maste

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