Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networks

Even though probabilistic treatments of neural networks have a long history, they have not found widespread use in practice. Sampling approaches are often too slow already for simple networks. The size of the inputs and the depth of typical CNN architectures in computer vision only compound this problem. Uncertainty in neural networks has thus been largely ignored in practice, despite the fact that it may provide important information about the reliability of predictions and the inner workings of the network. In this paper, we introduce two lightweight approaches to making supervised learning with probabilistic deep networks practical: First, we suggest probabilistic output layers for classification and regression that require only minimal changes to existing networks. Second, we employ assumed density filtering and show that activation uncertainties can be propagated in a practical fashion through the entire network, again with minor changes. Both probabilistic networks retain the predictive power of the deterministic counterpart, but yield uncertainties that correlate well with the empirical error induced by their predictions. Moreover, the robustness to adversarial examples is significantly increased.Comment: To appear at CVPR 201

Hybrid modeling, HMM/NN architectures, and protein applications

We describe a hybrid modeling approach where the parameters of a model are calculated and modulated by another model, typically a neural network (NN), to avoid both overfitting and underfitting. We develop the approach for the case of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), by deriving a class of hybrid HMM/NN architectures. These architectures can be trained with unified algorithms that blend HMM dynamic programming with NN backpropagation. In the case of complex data, mixtures of HMMs or modulated HMMs must be used. NNs can then be applied both to the parameters of each single HMM, and to the switching or modulation of the models, as a function of input or context. Hybrid HMM/NN architectures provide a flexible NN parameterization for the control of model structure and complexity. At the same time, they can capture distributions that, in practice, are inaccessible to single HMMs. The HMM/NN hybrid approach is tested, in its simplest form, by constructing a model of the immunoglobulin protein family. A hybrid model is trained, and a multiple alignment derived, with less than a fourth of the number of parameters used with previous single HMMs