The Effect of Fiscal Policy and Corruption Control Mechanisms on Firm Growth and Social Welfare: Theory and Evidence

The paper investigates the conflict that arises between the government, its bureaucrats and businesses in the tax collection process. We examine the effect of fiscal policy and corruption control mechanisms on the prevalence of tax evasion and corruption behaviour, and their impact on firm growth and social welfare. We first model a situation where bureaucrats are homogeneous and have complete negotiating power over the firms with which they interact. We show that in such a situation the government can set an optimal tax rate and put in place a corruption control mechanism involving detection of corrupt bureaucrats within the framework of a no-corruption equilibrium. However, when the public administration is composed of heterogeneous types of bureaucrats with the specific ability to impose red tape costs on firms, we show, like Acemoglu and Verdier (2000), that it might be best for the government to allow a certain level of corruption, given the cost of monitoring activities. We also show that the government could face lose-lose as well as win-win situations in the conduct of its fiscal policies. We then verify the predictions of the model using firm-level data collected from 243 businesses in Uganda. We test the effect of monitoring on bribe and tax payments. We also test the effect of tax rates and corruption control mechanisms on firm growth. We compare the effect of actual corruption (as measured by bribe payments) with the effect of government corruption expectations on firms’ growth.Corruption, Tax evasion, Tax administration, Firm growth

Corruption perception trends : European Union countries

The study analyzes the perception of the level of corruption in the countries of the European Union. We decided to summarize and explore the results of the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) for the period from 2012 to 2022 in all EU countries - Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden. We then compared the 2012 results with the 2022 results for each EU country and identified the three countries with the best percentage performance. Our study identified three countries in the European Union, that saw the most rapid improvement in the CPI score from 2012 to 2022: Greece (+44%), Italy (+33%) and Latvia (+20%). These achievements are interesting and significant in two contexts. Firstly, the overall rating of the EU has increased by only 2% during this period. Secondly, our established in-depth study group (Greece, Italy and Latvia) demonstrated not only a significant percentage increase, but also the persistence of a positive trend. We can identify 3 trend leaders - Greece, Italy and Latvia - both in terms of percentage growth from 2012 to 2022, and in the proportion of years where there were noticeable improvement trends. It is significant that this dynamic was not affected by the overall trend in the EU.Peer reviewe

Constitutional Commitment to Social Security and Welfare Policy

In this paper we explore whether the constitutional text has any practical meaning for welfare policy. To examine the empirical importance of the constitution, we first constructed for 68 countries an index of constitutional commitment to social security in five areas: Old Age, disability and survivors (OASDI), Unemployment, Sickness, Work Injury and Income Support. We find that the extent and coverage of social security laws is not sensitive to the degree of constitutional commitment to social security.Welfare Policy, Social Security, Constitution, Legal Origins

Evaluating Portfolio Value-at-Risk using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for portfolio selection under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. First, we specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining the within sample VaRs of a set of given portfolios shows that the semi-parametric model performs uniformly well, while parametric models in several cases have unacceptable failure rates. Interestingly, distributional assumptions appear to have a much larger impact on the performance of the VaR estimates than the particular parametric specification chosen for the GARCH equations. Finally, we examine the economic value of the multivariate GARCH models by determining optimal portfolios based on maximizing expected returns subject to a VaR constraint, over a period of 500 consecutive days. Again, the superiority and robustness of the semi-parametric model is confirmed.multivariate GARCH, semi-parametric estimation, Value-at-Risk, asset allocation.

New Evidence on the Determinants of Absenteeism Using Linked Employer-Employee Data

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the determinants of absenteeism using the Workplace Employee Survey (WES) 1999-2002 from Statistics Canada. Our paper extends the typical labour-leisure model used to analyze the decision to skip work to include firm-level policy variables relevant to the absenteeism decision and uncertainty about the cost of absenteeism. It also provides a non-linear econometric model that explicitly takes into account the count nature of absenteeism data and unobserved heterogeneity at both the individual and firm level. Controlling for very detailed demographic, job and firm characteristics (including workplace practices), we find that dissatisfaction with contracted hours is a significant determinant of absence.Absenteeism; Linked Employer-Employee Data; Unobserved Heterogeneity; Count Data Models.

An Empirical Analysis of U.S. Aggregate Portfolio Allocations

This paper analyzes the important time variation in U.S. aggregate portfolio allocations. To do so, we first use flexible descriptions of preferences and investment opportunities to derive optimal decision rules that nest tactical, myopic, and strategic portfolio allocations. We then compare these rules to the data through formal statistical analysis. Our main results reveal that i) purely tactical and myopic investment behaviors are unambiguously rejected, ii) strategic portfolio allocations are strongly supported, and iii) the Fama-French factors best explain empirical portfolio shares.Dynamic Hedging; Risk Aversion; Inter-temporal Substitution; Time-Varying Investment Opportunity Set.

Closing International Real Business Cycle Models with Restricted Financial Markets

Several authors argue that international real business cycle (IRBC) models with incomplete financial markets offer a good explanation of the ranking of cross-country correlations. Unfortunately, this conclusion is suspect, because it is commonly based on an analysis of the near steady state dynamics using a linearized system of equations. The baseline IRBC model with incomplete financial markets does not possess a unique deterministic steady state and, as a result, its linear system of difference equations is not stationary. We show that the explanation of the ranking of cross-country correlations is robust to modifications that ensure a unique steady state and a stationary system of linear difference equations. We find, however, that the modifications affect the quantitative predictions regarding key macroeconomic variables.Incomplete markets, stationarity, cross-country correlations, wealth effects.

Self-selection in migration and returns to unobservable skills

Several papers have tested the empirical validity of the migration models proposed by Borjas (1987) and Borjas, Bronars, and Trejo (1992). However, to our knowledge, none has been able to disentangle the separate impact of observable and unobservable individual characteristics, and their respective returns across different locations, on an individual's decision to migrate. We build a model in which individuals sort, in part, on potential earnings - where earnings across different locations are a function of both observable and unobservable characteristics. We focus on the inter-provincial migration patterns of Canadian physicians. We choose this particular group for several reasons including the fact that they are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Since wage rates are exogenous, earning differentials are driven by differences in productivity. We then estimate a mixed conditional-logit model to determine the effects of individual and destination-specific characteristics (particularly earnings differentials) on physician location decisions. We find, among other things, that high-productivity physicians (based on unobservables) are more likely to migrate to provinces where the productivity premium is greater, while low-productivity physicians are more likely to migrate to areas where the productivity premium is lower. These results are consistent with a modified Borjas model of self-selection in migration based on both unobservables and observables.Migration, self-selection, earnings, longitudinal data, productivity.

Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles

This paper documents the relative importance of global and country-specific shocks for international business cycles. For this purpose, we rely on a symmetric two-country, dynamic, general-equilibrium model with costly, incomplete, international financial markets. We also relate exogenous technologies and government expenditures to unobservable common and idiosynchratic components, and apply a Kalman filter to extract the associated global and country-specific shocks. We show that the baseline parametrization of the model, including all shocks, closely matches the cyclical fluctuations of key macroeconomic variables for the United States and a non-US aggregate over the post-1975 period. We then experiment alternative parametrizations, isolating the effects of each shock, and find that country-specific technology shocks constitute a prime determinant of international business cycles. Also, global technology shocks have marginal contributions, whereas global and country-specific government-expenditure shocks have negligible effects on cyclical fluctuations.General Equilibrium, Kalman Filter, Symmetric Economies.

Fiscal policy, institutional quality and central bank transparency

This paper examines the issues of institutional quality and central bank transparency through the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We have found that the effects of transparency and corruption on macroeconomic performance and volatility depend on the relative importance of the marginal supply-side effects of distortionary tax and corruption, the degree of central bank conservativeness and/or the initial degree of opacity about central bank preferences. If the marginal effect of tax is relatively important, more opacity might induce higher level and volatility of inflation when the central bank is sufficiently conservative. Furthermore, opacity and tolerated corruption can mutually reinforce or weaken each other’s effects on the level and volatility of inflation. Transparency is generally a better strategy when the central bank is conservative. However, there could be a case for opacity in order to compensate for the undesirable macroeconomic effects of corruption when the central bank is liberal.Central bank transparency, central bank conservativeness, fiscal bias, distortionary tax, institutional quality (corruption).