49,878 research outputs found

    The fiscal multiplier: positive or negative?

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    This study examines whether the fiscal multiplier can be negative for certain types of government spending. The key result is that the fiscal multiplier can be negative if there is a high degree of substitutability between private and government consumption and government consumption is complementary to leisure.fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, effectiveness of fiscal policy

    Fiscal Multipliers over the Business Cycle

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    This paper illustrates why fiscal policy becomes more effective as unemployment rises in recessions. The theory is based on the equilibrium unemployment model of Michaillat (forthcoming), in which jobs are rationed in recessions. Fiscal policy takes the form of government spending on public-sector jobs. Recessions are periods of acute job shortage without much competition for workers among recruiting firms; hiring in the public sector does not crowd out hiring in the private sector much; therefore fiscal policy reduces unemployment effectively. Formally the fiscal multiplier—the reduction in unemployment rate achieved by spending one dollar on public-sector jobs—is countercyclical. An implication is that available estimates of the fiscal multiplier, which measure the average effect of fiscal policy over the business cycle, do not apply in recessions because the multiplier is much higher in recessions than on average.Fiscal multiplier, unemployment, business cycle, job rationing, matching frictions

    The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap

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    We consider the fiscal multiplier and spillover in an environment in which two countries are caught simultaneously in a liquidity trap. Using an optimizing two-country sticky price model, we show that the fiscal multiplier and spillover are contrary to those predicted in textbook economics. For the country with government expenditure, the fiscal multiplier exceeds one, the currency depreciates, and the terms of trade worsen. The fiscal spillover is negative if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one and positive if the parameter is greater than one. Incomplete stabilization of marginal costs due to the existence of the zero lower bound is a crucial factor in understanding the effects of fiscal policy in open economies.International liquidity ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Fiscal policy ; Monetary policy

    Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis

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    This study examines the expanding role of fiscal policy at a time of financial crisis. It analyses the stimulative fiscal measures of the Russian government in 2008-2010 and compares these with simi-lar actions taken in other countries. The risks and limitations associated with the development and implementation of the measures are analyzed. The macroeconomic effects of the fiscal policy measures are estimated using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, the fiscal multip-liers are calculated, and factors influencing multiplier size are examined.fiscal stimulus; fiscal sustainability; SVAR; fiscal multiplier; financial crisis; Russia

    Fiscal policy in a depressed economy : was there a ‘free lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?

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    We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data and timeseries econometrics. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.9 even during the period that interest rates were at the lower bound. The scope for a ‘Keynesian solution’to recession was much less than is generally supposed. In the later 1930s but not before Britain’s exit from the gold standard, there was a ‘fiscal free lunch’in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

    Impacts of Tourism and Fiscal Expenditure on Remote Islands in Japan: A Panel Data Analysis

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    Japan consists of many small inhabited islands in addition to four main islands. We examine the impact of fiscal expenditure and the number of tourists on per capita taxable income in remote islands using panel data analysis. The results show that both fiscal expenditure and population size have significant positive impacts on per capita taxable income, whereas the number of tourists does not have statistically significant impact. They indicate that tourism development would not work as a substitute for financial support from the government. In other words, continuous financial support may be needed to maintain the islandsf economies.Tourism Multiplier, Fiscal Multiplier, Remote Islands, Panel Data Analysis

    Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation

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    We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (Smets and Wouters, 2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.52 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around -0.42. The multiplier is sensitive to the fraction of transfers given to credit-constrained households, the duration of the zero lower bound and the capital. The stimulus results in negative welfare effects for unconstrained agents. The constrained agents gain, if they discount the future substantially. --Fiscal Stimulus,New Keynesian model,liquidity trap,zero lower bound,fiscal multiplier

    Profits, Markups and Entry: Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy

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    In this paper we develop a general model of an imperfectly competitive small open economy. There is a traded and non-traded sector, whose outputs are combined in order to produce a single final good that can be either consumed or invested. We make general assumptions about preferences and technology, and analyze the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. We find that the fiscal multiplier is between zero and one, and provide sufficient conditions for it to be increasing in the degree of imperfect competition. We also are able to compare the multiplier under free-entry and with a fixed number of firms and welfare. A simple graphical representation of the model is developed.Imperfect competition, open economy, fiscal policy

    The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis

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    Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking spending yields a short-term fiscal multiplier of around 0.70, while the fiscal multiplier resulting from an increase in taxes and social security contributions is -0.66. In addition, the threshold model derives fundamentally new insights on the effects of shocks, depending on when in the business cycle they occur, their size and their direction. Most importantly, fiscal spending multipliers are much larger in times of a negative output gap but have only a very limited effect in times of a positive output gap. Discretionary revenue policies, on the other hand, have a generally more limited impact. Our findings have important implications for the optimal fiscal policy mix over different stages of the business cycle. Various robustness checks, including a different threshold specification, do not influence these implications substantially. --fiscal policy,business cycle,nonlinear analysis,fiscal multipliers

    Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy-SVARs Robust?

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    How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that allows to achieve identification in presence of a number of structural shocks larger than that of the available instruments. Our two main findings are the following. First, the estimate of the tax multiplier is sensitive to the assumption of orthogonality between total factor productivity (non-fiscal proxy) and tax shocks. If this correlation is assumed to be zero, the tax multiplier is found to be around one. If such correlation is non-zero, as supported by our empirical evidence, we find a tax multiplier three times as large. Second, we find the spending multiplier to be robustly larger than one across different models that feature different sets of instruments. Our results are robust to the joint employment of different fiscal and non-fiscal instruments
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