Robust State Space Filtering under Incremental Model Perturbations Subject to a Relative Entropy Tolerance

This paper considers robust filtering for a nominal Gaussian state-space model, when a relative entropy tolerance is applied to each time increment of a dynamical model. The problem is formulated as a dynamic minimax game where the maximizer adopts a myopic strategy. This game is shown to admit a saddle point whose structure is characterized by applying and extending results presented earlier in [1] for static least-squares estimation. The resulting minimax filter takes the form of a risk-sensitive filter with a time varying risk sensitivity parameter, which depends on the tolerance bound applied to the model dynamics and observations at the corresponding time index. The least-favorable model is constructed and used to evaluate the performance of alternative filters. Simulations comparing the proposed risk-sensitive filter to a standard Kalman filter show a significant performance advantage when applied to the least-favorable model, and only a small performance loss for the nominal model

On Control and Estimation of Large and Uncertain Systems

This thesis contains an introduction and six papers about the control and estimation of large and uncertain systems. The first paper poses and solves a deterministic version of the multiple-model estimation problem for finite sets of linear systems. The estimate is an interpolation of Kalman filter estimates. It achieves a provided energy gain bound from disturbances to the point-wise estimation error, given that the gain bound is feasible. The second paper shows how to compute upper and lower bounds for the smallest feasible gain bound. The bounds are computed via Riccati recursions. The third paper proves that it is sufficient to consider observer-based feedback in output-feedback control of linear systems with uncertain parameters, where the uncertain parameters belong to a finite set. The paper also contains an example of a discrete-time integrator with unknown gain. The fourth paper argues that the current methods for analyzing the robustness of large systems with structured uncertainty do not distinguish between sparse and dense perturbations and proposes a new robustness measure that captures sparsity. The paper also thoroughly analyzes this new measure. In particular, it proposes an upper bound that is amenable to distributed computation and valuable for control design. The fifth paper solves the problem of localized state-feedback L2 control with communication delay for large discrete-time systems. The synthesis procedure can be performed for each node in parallel. The paper combines the localized state-feedback controller with a localized Kalman filter to synthesize a localized output feedback controller that stabilizes the closed-loop subject to communication constraints. The sixth paper concerns optimal linear-quadratic team-decision problems where the team does not have access to the model. Instead, the players must learn optimal policies by interacting with the environment. The paper contains algorithms and regret bounds for the first- and zeroth-order information feedback

Data-driven linear decision rule approach for distributionally robust optimization of on-line signal control

We propose a two-stage, on-line signal control strategy for dynamic networks using a linear decision rule (LDR) approach and a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) technique. The first (off-line) stage formulates a LDR that maps real-time traffic data to optimal signal control policies. A DRO problem is solved to optimize the on-line performance of the LDR in the presence of uncertainties associated with the observed traffic states and ambiguity in their underlying distribution functions. We employ a data-driven calibration of the uncertainty set, which takes into account historical traffic data. The second (on-line) stage implements a very efficient linear decision rule whose performance is guaranteed by the off-line computation. We test the proposed signal control procedure in a simulation environment that is informed by actual traffic data obtained in Glasgow, and demonstrate its full potential in on-line operation and deployability on realistic networks, as well as its effectiveness in improving traffic