Optimal search in discrete locations:extensions and new findings

A hidden target needs to be found by a searcher in many real-life situations, some of which involve large costs and significant consequences with failure. Therefore, efficient search methods are paramount. In our search model, the target lies in one of several discrete locations according to some hiding distribution, and the searcher's goal is to discover the target in minimum expected time by making successive searches of individual locations. In Part I of the thesis, the searcher knows the hiding distribution. Here, if there is only one way to search each location, the solution to the search problem, discovered in the 1960s, is simple; search next any location with a maximal probability per unit time of detecting the target. An equivalent solution is derived by viewing the search problem as a multi-armed bandit and following a Gittins index policy. Motivated by modern search technology, we introduce two modes---fast and slow---to search each location. The fast mode takes less time, but the slow mode is more likely to find the target. An optimal policy is difficult to obtain in general, because it requires an optimal sequence of search modes for each location, in addition to a set of sequence-dependent Gittins indices for choosing between locations. For each mode, we identify a sufficient condition for a location to use only that search mode in an optimal policy. For locations meeting neither sufficient condition, an optimal choice of search mode is extremely complicated, depending both on the hiding distribution and the search parameters of the other locations. We propose several heuristic policies motivated by our analysis, and demonstrate their near-optimal performance in an extensive numerical study. In Part II of the thesis, the searcher has only one search mode per location, but does not know the hiding distribution, which is chosen by an intelligent hider who aims to maximise the expected time until the target is discovered. Such a search game, modelled via two-person, zero-sum game theory, is relevant if the target is a bomb, intruder, or, of increasing importance due to advances in technology, a computer hacker. By Part I, if the hiding distribution is known, an optimal counter strategy for the searcher is any corresponding Gittins index policy. To develop an optimal search strategy in the search game, the searcher must account for the hider’s motivation to choose an optimal hiding distribution, and consider the set of corresponding Gittins index policies. %It follows that an optimal search strategy in the search game must be some Gittins index policy if the hiding distribution is assumed to be chosen optimally by the hider. However, the searcher must choose carefully from this set of Gittins index policies to ensure the same expected time to discover the target regardless of where it is hidden by the hider. %It follows that an optimal search strategy in the search game must be a Gittins index policy applied to a hiding distribution which is optimal from the hider's perspective. However, to avoid giving the hider any advantage, the searcher must carefully choose such a Gittins index policy among the many available. As a result, finding an optimal search strategy, or even proving one exists, is difficult. We extend several results for special cases from the literature to the fully-general search game; in particular, we show an optimal search strategy exists and may take a simple form. Using a novel test, we investigate the frequency of the optimality of a particular hiding strategy that gives the searcher no preference over any location at the beginning of the search

Counter-intuitive prey strategies against predators with finite budget in a search game : protection heterogeneity among sites matters more than their number

International audienceCombining the search and pursuit aspects of predator–prey interactions into a single game, where the payoff to the Searcher (predator) is the probability of finding and capturing the Hider (prey) within a fixed number of searches was proposed by Gal and Casas ( J. R. Soc. Interface 11 , 20140062 ( doi:10.1098/rsif.2014.0062 )). Subsequent models allowed the predator to continue its search (in another ‘round’) if the prey was found but escaped the chase. However, it is unrealistic to allow this pattern of prey relocation to go on forever, so here we introduce a limit of the total number of searches, in all ‘rounds’, that the predator can carry out. We show how habitat structural complexity affects the mean time until capture: the quality of the location with the lowest capture probability matters more than the number of hiding locations. Moreover, we observed that the parameter space defined by the capture probabilities in each location and the budget of the predator can be divided into distinct domains, defining whether the prey ought to play with pure or mixed hiding strategies

A stochastic game model of searching predators and hiding prey

When the spatial density of both prey and predators is very low, the problem they face may be modelled as a two-person game (called a ‘search game’) between one member of each type. Following recent models of search and pursuit, we assume the prey has a fixed number of heterogeneous ‘hiding’ places (for example, ice holes for a seal to breathe) and that the predator (maybe polar bear) has the time or energy to search a fixed number of these. If he searches the actual hiding location and also successfully pursues the prey there, he wins the game. If he fails to find the prey, he loses. In this paper, we modify the outcome in the case that he finds but does not catch the prey. The prey is now vulnerable to capture while relocating with risk depending on the intervening terrain. This generalizes the original games to a stochastic game framework, a first for search and pursuit games. We outline a general solution and also compute particular solutions. This modified model now has implications for the question of when to stay or leave the lair and by what routes. In particular, we find the counterintuitive result that in some cases adding risk of predation during prey relocation may result in more relocation. We also model the process by which the players can learn about the properties of the different hiding locations and find that having to learn the capture probabilities is favourable to the prey

A Classical Search Game In Discrete Locations

Consider a two-person zero-sum search game between a hider and a searcher. The hider hides among n discrete locations, and the searcher successively visits individual locations until finding the hider. Known to both players, a search at location i takes ti time units and detects the hider—if hidden there—independently with probability αi, for i = 1,...,n. The hider aims to maximize the expected time until detection, while the searcher aims to minimize it. We prove the existence of an optimal strategy for each player. In particular, any optimal mixed hiding strategy hides in each location with a nonzero probability, and there exists an optimal mixed search strategy which can be constructed with up to n simple search sequences