Computational Methods for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

Bayesian methods are critical for the complete understanding of complex systems. In this approach, we capture all of our uncertainty about a system’s properties using a probability distribution and update this understanding as new information becomes available. By taking the Bayesian perspective, we are able to effectively incorporate our prior knowledge about a model and to rigorously assess the plausibility of candidate models based upon observed data from the system. We can then make probabilistic predictions that incorporate uncertainties, which allows for better decision making and design. However, while these Bayesian methods are critical, they are often computationally intensive, thus necessitating the development of new approaches and algorithms. In this work, we discuss two approaches to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For many statistical inference and system identification problems, the development of MCMC made the Bayesian approach possible. However, as the size and complexity of inference problems has dramatically increased, improved MCMC methods are required. First, we present Second-Order Langevin MCMC (SOL-MC), a stochastic dynamical system-based MCMC algorithm that uses the damped second-order Langevin stochastic differential equation (SDE) to sample a desired posterior distribution. Since this method is based on an underlying dynamical system, we can utilize existing work in the theory for dynamical systems to develop, implement, and optimize the sampler's performance. Second, we present advances and theoretical results for Sequential Tempered MCMC (ST-MCMC) algorithms. Sequential Tempered MCMC is a family of parallelizable algorithms, based upon Transitional MCMC and Sequential Monte Carlo, that gradually transform a population of samples from the prior to the posterior through a series of intermediate distributions. Since the method is population-based, it can easily be parallelized. In this work, we derive theoretical results to help tune parameters within the algorithm. We also introduce a new sampling algorithm for ST-MCMC called the Rank-One Modified Metropolis Algorithm (ROMMA). This algorithm improves sampling efficiency for inference problems where the prior distribution constrains the posterior. In particular, this is shown to be relevant for problems in geophysics. We also discuss the application of Bayesian methods to state estimation, disturbance detection, and system identification problems in complex systems. We introduce a Bayesian perspective on learning models and properties of physical systems based upon a layered architecture that can learn quickly and flexibly. We then apply this architecture to detecting and characterizing changes in physical systems with applications to power systems and biology. In power systems, we develop a new formulation of the Extended Kalman Filter for estimating dynamic states described by differential algebraic equations. This filter is then used as the basis for sub-second fault detection and classification. In synthetic biology, we use a Bayesian approach to detect and identify unknown chemical inputs in a biosensor system implemented in a cell population. This approach uses the tools of Bayesian model selection.</p

EVOLUTION OF THE SUBCONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE DURING MESOZOIC TETHYAN RIFTING: CONSTRAINTS FROM THE EXTERNAL LIGURIAN MANTLE SECTION (NORTHERN APENNINE, ITALY)

Our study is focussed on mantle bodies from the External Ligurian ophiolites, within the Monte Gavi and Monte Sant'Agostino areas. Here, two distinct pyroxenite-bearing mantle sections were recognized, mainly based on their plagioclase-facies evolution. The Monte Gavi mantle section is nearly undeformed and records reactive melt infiltration under plagioclase-facies conditions. This process involved both peridotites (clinopyroxene-poor lherzolites) and enclosed spinel pyroxenite layers, and occurred at 0.7–0.8 GPa. In the Monte Gavi peridotites and pyroxenites, the spinel-facies clinopyroxene was replaced by Ca-rich plagioclase and new orthopyroxene, typically associated with secondary clinopyroxene. The reactive melt migration caused increase of TiO2 contents in relict clinopyroxene and spinel, with the latter also recording a Cr2O3 increase. In the Monte Gavi peridotites and pyroxenites, geothermometers based on slowly diffusing elements (REE and Y) record high temperature conditions (1200-1250 °C) related to the melt infiltration event, followed by subsolidus cooling until ca. 900°C. The Monte Sant'Agostino mantle section is characterized by widespread ductile shearing with no evidence of melt infiltration. The deformation recorded by the Monte Sant'Agostino peridotites (clinopyroxene-rich lherzolites) occurred at 750–800 °C and 0.3–0.6 GPa, leading to protomylonitic to ultramylonitic textures with extreme grain size reduction (10–50 μm). Compared to the peridotites, the enclosed pyroxenite layers gave higher temperature-pressure estimates for the plagioclase-facies re-equilibration (870–930 °C and 0.8–0.9 GPa). We propose that the earlier plagioclase crystallization in the pyroxenites enhanced strain localization and formation of mylonite shear zones in the entire mantle section. We subdivide the subcontinental mantle section from the External Ligurian ophiolites into three distinct domains, developed in response to the rifting evolution that ultimately formed a Middle Jurassic ocean-continent transition: (1) a spinel tectonite domain, characterized by subsolidus static formation of plagioclase, i.e. the Suvero mantle section (Hidas et al., 2020), (2) a plagioclase mylonite domain experiencing melt-absent deformation and (3) a nearly undeformed domain that underwent reactive melt infiltration under plagioclase-facies conditions, exemplified by the the Monte Sant'Agostino and the Monte Gavi mantle sections, respectively. We relate mantle domains (1) and (2) to a rifting-driven uplift in the late Triassic accommodated by large-scale shear zones consisting of anhydrous plagioclase mylonites. Hidas K., Borghini G., Tommasi A., Zanetti A. &amp; Rampone E. 2021. Interplay between melt infiltration and deformation in the deep lithospheric mantle (External Liguride ophiolite, North Italy). Lithos 380-381, 105855

Impact of Etna’s volcanic emission on major ions and trace elements composition of the atmospheric deposition

Mt. Etna, on the eastern coast of Sicily (Italy), is one of the most active volcanoes on the planet and it is widely recognized as a big source of volcanic gases (e.g., CO2 and SO2), halogens, and a lot of trace elements, to the atmosphere in the Mediterranean region. Especially during eruptive periods, Etna’s emissions can be dispersed over long distances and cover wide areas. A group of trace elements has been recently brought to attention for their possible environmental and human health impacts, the Technology-critical elements. The current knowledge about their geochemical cycles is still scarce, nevertheless, recent studies (Brugnone et al., 2020) evidenced a contribution from the volcanic activity for some of them (Te, Tl, and REE). In 2021, in the framework of the research project “Pianeta Dinamico”, by INGV, a network of 10 bulk collectors was implemented to collect, monthly, atmospheric deposition samples. Four of these collectors are located on the flanks of Mt. Etna, other two are in the urban area of Catania and three are in the industrial area of Priolo, all most of the time downwind of the main craters. The last one, close to Cesarò (Nebrodi Regional Park), represents the regional background. The research aims to produce a database on major ions and trace element compositions of the bulk deposition and here we report the values of the main physical-chemical parameters and the deposition fluxes of major ions and trace elements from the first year of research. The pH ranged from 3.1 to 7.7, with a mean value of 5.6, in samples from the Etna area, while it ranged between 5.2 and 7.6, with a mean value of 6.4, in samples from the other study areas. The EC showed values ranging from 5 to 1032 μS cm-1, with a mean value of 65 μS cm-1. The most abundant ions were Cl- and SO42- for anions, Na+ and Ca+ for cations, whose mean deposition fluxes, considering all sampling sites, were 16.6, 6.8, 8.4, and 6.0 mg m-2 d, respectively. The highest deposition fluxes of volcanic refractory elements, such as Al, Fe, and Ti, were measured in the Etna’s sites, with mean values of 948, 464, and 34.3 μg m-2 d-1, respectively, higher than those detected in the other sampling sites, further away from the volcanic source (26.2, 12.4, 0.5 μg m-2 d-1, respectively). The same trend was also observed for volatile elements of prevailing volcanic origin, such as Tl (0.49 μg m-2 d-1), Te (0.07 μg m-2 d-1), As (0.95 μg m-2 d-1), Se (1.92 μg m-2 d-1), and Cd (0.39 μg m-2 d-1). Our preliminary results show that, close to a volcanic area, volcanic emissions must be considered among the major contributors of ions and trace elements to the atmosphere. Their deposition may significantly impact the pedosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and directly or indirectly human health

Impact of geogenic degassing on C-isotopic composition of dissolved carbon in karst systems of Greece

The Earth C-cycle is complex, where endogenic and exogenic sources are interconnected, operating in a multiple spatial and temporal scale (Lee et al., 2019). Non-volcanic CO2 degassing from active tectonic structures is one of the less defined components of this cycle (Frondini et al., 2019). Carbon mass-balance (Chiodini et al., 2000) is a useful tool to quantify the geogenic carbon output from regional karst hydrosystems. This approach has been demonstrated for central Italy and may be valid also for Greece, due to the similar geodynamic settings. Deep degassing in Greece has been ascertained mainly at hydrothermal and volcanic areas, but the impact of geogenic CO2 released by active tectonic areas has not yet been quantified. The main aim of this research is to investigate the possible deep degassing through the big karst aquifers of Greece. Since 2016, 156 karst springs were sampled along most of the Greek territory. To discriminate the sources of carbon, the analysis of the isotopic composition of carbon was carried out. δ13CTDIC values vary from -16.61 to -0.91‰ and can be subdivided into two groups characterized by (a) low δ13CTDIC, and (b) intermediate to high δ13CTDIC with a threshold value of -6.55‰. The composition of the first group can be related to the mixing of organic-derived CO2 and the dissolution of marine carbonates. Springs of the second group, mostly located close to Quaternary volcanic areas, are linked to possible carbon input from deep sources

Друга міжнародна конференція зі сталого майбутнього: екологічні, технологічні, соціальні та економічні питання (ICSF 2021). Кривий Ріг, Україна, 19-21 травня 2021 року

Second International Conference on Sustainable Futures: Environmental, Technological, Social and Economic Matters (ICSF 2021). Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, May 19-21, 2021.Друга міжнародна конференція зі сталого майбутнього: екологічні, технологічні, соціальні та економічні питання (ICSF 2021). Кривий Ріг, Україна, 19-21 травня 2021 року

3-я Міжнародна конференція зі сталого майбутнього: екологічні, технологічні, соціальні та економічні аспекти (ICSF 2022) 24-27 травня 2022 року, м. Кривий Ріг, Україна

Матеріали 3-ої Міжнародної конференції зі сталого майбутнього: екологічні, технологічні, соціальні та економічні аспекти (ICSF 2022) 24-27 травня 2022 року, м. Кривий Ріг, Україна.Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Sustainable Futures: Environmental, Technological, Social and Economic Matters (ICSF 2022) 24-27 May 2022, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine