Robust exponential smoothing of multivariate time series.

Multivariate time series may contain outliers of different types. In presence of such outliers, applying standard multivariate time series techniques becomes unreliable. A robust version of multivariate exponential smoothing is proposed. The method is affine equivariant, and involves the selection of a smoothing parameter matrix by minimizing a robust loss function. It is shown that the robust method results in much better forecasts than the classic approach in presence of outliers, and performs similar when the data contain no outliers. Moreover, the robust procedure yields an estimator of the smoothing parameter less subject to downward bias. As a byproduct, a cleaned version of the time series is obtained, as is illustrated by means of a real data example.Data cleaning; Exponential smoothing; Forecasting; Multivariate time series; Robustness;

On-Manifold Preintegration for Real-Time Visual-Inertial Odometry

Current approaches for visual-inertial odometry (VIO) are able to attain highly accurate state estimation via nonlinear optimization. However, real-time optimization quickly becomes infeasible as the trajectory grows over time, this problem is further emphasized by the fact that inertial measurements come at high rate, hence leading to fast growth of the number of variables in the optimization. In this paper, we address this issue by preintegrating inertial measurements between selected keyframes into single relative motion constraints. Our first contribution is a \emph{preintegration theory} that properly addresses the manifold structure of the rotation group. We formally discuss the generative measurement model as well as the nature of the rotation noise and derive the expression for the \emph{maximum a posteriori} state estimator. Our theoretical development enables the computation of all necessary Jacobians for the optimization and a-posteriori bias correction in analytic form. The second contribution is to show that the preintegrated IMU model can be seamlessly integrated into a visual-inertial pipeline under the unifying framework of factor graphs. This enables the application of incremental-smoothing algorithms and the use of a \emph{structureless} model for visual measurements, which avoids optimizing over the 3D points, further accelerating the computation. We perform an extensive evaluation of our monocular \VIO pipeline on real and simulated datasets. The results confirm that our modelling effort leads to accurate state estimation in real-time, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches.Comment: 20 pages, 24 figures, accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Robotics (TRO) 201

Estimating Semiparametric Panel Data Models by Marginal Integration

We propose a new methodology for estimating semiparametric panel data models, with a primary focus on the nonparametric component. We eliminate individual effects using first differencing transformation and estimate the unknown function by marginal integration. We extend our methodology to treat panel data models with both individual and time effects. And we characterize the asymptotic behavior of our estimators. Monte Carlo simulations show that our estimator behaves well in finite samples in both random effects and fixed effects settings.Semiparametric Panel Data Model, Partially Linear, First Differencing, Marginal Integration

Fast space-variant elliptical filtering using box splines

The efficient realization of linear space-variant (non-convolution) filters is a challenging computational problem in image processing. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to filter an image with a Gaussian-like elliptic window of varying size, elongation and orientation using a fixed number of computations per pixel. The associated algorithm, which is based on a family of smooth compactly supported piecewise polynomials, the radially-uniform box splines, is realized using pre-integration and local finite-differences. The radially-uniform box splines are constructed through the repeated convolution of a fixed number of box distributions, which have been suitably scaled and distributed radially in an uniform fashion. The attractive features of these box splines are their asymptotic behavior, their simple covariance structure, and their quasi-separability. They converge to Gaussians with the increase of their order, and are used to approximate anisotropic Gaussians of varying covariance simply by controlling the scales of the constituent box distributions. Based on the second feature, we develop a technique for continuously controlling the size, elongation and orientation of these Gaussian-like functions. Finally, the quasi-separable structure, along with a certain scaling property of box distributions, is used to efficiently realize the associated space-variant elliptical filtering, which requires O(1) computations per pixel irrespective of the shape and size of the filter.Comment: 12 figures; IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, vol. 19, 201

Fast calibrated additive quantile regression

We propose a novel framework for fitting additive quantile regression models, which provides well calibrated inference about the conditional quantiles and fast automatic estimation of the smoothing parameters, for model structures as diverse as those usable with distributional GAMs, while maintaining equivalent numerical efficiency and stability. The proposed methods are at once statistically rigorous and computationally efficient, because they are based on the general belief updating framework of Bissiri et al. (2016) to loss based inference, but compute by adapting the stable fitting methods of Wood et al. (2016). We show how the pinball loss is statistically suboptimal relative to a novel smooth generalisation, which also gives access to fast estimation methods. Further, we provide a novel calibration method for efficiently selecting the 'learning rate' balancing the loss with the smoothing priors during inference, thereby obtaining reliable quantile uncertainty estimates. Our work was motivated by a probabilistic electricity load forecasting application, used here to demonstrate the proposed approach. The methods described here are implemented by the qgam R package, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)