Variational Hamiltonian Monte Carlo via Score Matching

Traditionally, the field of computational Bayesian statistics has been divided into two main subfields: variational methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In recent years, however, several methods have been proposed based on combining variational Bayesian inference and MCMC simulation in order to improve their overall accuracy and computational efficiency. This marriage of fast evaluation and flexible approximation provides a promising means of designing scalable Bayesian inference methods. In this paper, we explore the possibility of incorporating variational approximation into a state-of-the-art MCMC method, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), to reduce the required gradient computation in the simulation of Hamiltonian flow, which is the bottleneck for many applications of HMC in big data problems. To this end, we use a {\it free-form} approximation induced by a fast and flexible surrogate function based on single-hidden layer feedforward neural networks. The surrogate provides sufficiently accurate approximation while allowing for fast exploration of parameter space, resulting in an efficient approximate inference algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages of our method on both synthetic and real data problems

Recurrent Neural Filters: Learning Independent Bayesian Filtering Steps for Time Series Prediction

Despite the recent popularity of deep generative state space models, few comparisons have been made between network architectures and the inference steps of the Bayesian filtering framework -- with most models simultaneously approximating both state transition and update steps with a single recurrent neural network (RNN). In this paper, we introduce the Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF), a novel recurrent autoencoder architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step, captured by a series of encoders and decoders. Testing this on three real-world time series datasets, we demonstrate that the decoupled representations learnt not only improve the accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts while providing realistic uncertainty estimates, but also facilitate multistep prediction through the separation of encoder stages

Orthogonally Decoupled Variational Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful non-parametric framework for reasoning over functions. Despite appealing theory, its superlinear computational and memory complexities have presented a long-standing challenge. State-of-the-art sparse variational inference methods trade modeling accuracy against complexity. However, the complexities of these methods still scale superlinearly in the number of basis functions, implying that that sparse GP methods are able to learn from large datasets only when a small model is used. Recently, a decoupled approach was proposed that removes the unnecessary coupling between the complexities of modeling the mean and the covariance functions of a GP. It achieves a linear complexity in the number of mean parameters, so an expressive posterior mean function can be modeled. While promising, this approach suffers from optimization difficulties due to ill-conditioning and non-convexity. In this work, we propose an alternative decoupled parametrization. It adopts an orthogonal basis in the mean function to model the residues that cannot be learned by the standard coupled approach. Therefore, our method extends, rather than replaces, the coupled approach to achieve strictly better performance. This construction admits a straightforward natural gradient update rule, so the structure of the information manifold that is lost during decoupling can be leveraged to speed up learning. Empirically, our algorithm demonstrates significantly faster convergence in multiple experiments.Comment: Appearing NIPS 201