Sequential Importance Sampling Algorithms for Estimating the All-Terminal Reliability Polynomial of Sparse Graphs

The all-terminal reliability polynomial of a graph counts its connected subgraphs of various sizes. Algorithms based on sequential importance sampling (SIS) have been proposed to estimate a graph\u27s reliability polynomial. We show upper bounds on the relative error of three sequential importance sampling algorithms. We use these to create a hybrid algorithm, which selects the best SIS algorithm for a particular graph G and particular coefficient of the polynomial. This hybrid algorithm is particularly effective when G has low degree. For graphs of average degree < 11, it is the fastest known algorithm; for graphs of average degree <= 45 it is the fastest known polynomial-space algorithm. For example, when a graph has average degree 3, this algorithm estimates to error epsilon in time O(1.26^n * epsilon^{-2}). Although the algorithm may take exponential time, in practice it can have good performance even on medium-scale graphs. We provide experimental results that show quite practical performance on graphs with hundreds of vertices and thousands of edges. By contrast, alternative algorithms are either not rigorous or are completely impractical for such large graphs

Open TURNS: An industrial software for uncertainty quantification in simulation

The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems and to answer tighter regulatory processes (security, safety, environmental control, and health impacts, etc.) have led to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take uncertainties into account when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. Therefore, a generic methodology has emerged from the joint effort of several industrial companies and academic institutions. EDF R&D, Airbus Group and Phimeca Engineering started a collaboration at the beginning of 2005, joined by IMACS in 2014, for the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk 'N Statistics. OpenTURNS addresses the specific industrial challenges attached to uncertainties, which are transparency, genericity, modularity and multi-accessibility. This paper focuses on OpenTURNS and presents its main features: openTURNS is an open source software under the LGPL license, that presents itself as a C++ library and a Python TUI, and which works under Linux and Windows environment. All the methodological tools are described in the different sections of this paper: uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and metamodeling. A section also explains the generic wrappers way to link openTURNS to any external code. The paper illustrates as much as possible the methodological tools on an educational example that simulates the height of a river and compares it to the height of a dyke that protects industrial facilities. At last, it gives an overview of the main developments planned for the next few years

Sensitivity analysis and related analysis: A survey of statistical techniques

This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical techniques may then be used? This paper distinguishes the following five stages in the analysis of a simulation model. 1) Validation: the availability of data on the real system determines which type of statistical technique to use for validation. 2) Screening: in the simulation's pilot phase the really important inputs can be identified through a novel technique, called sequential bifurcation, which uses aggregation and sequential experimentation. 3) Sensitivity analysis: the really important inputs should be This approach with its five stages implies that sensitivity analysis should precede uncertainty analysis. This paper briefly discusses several case studies for each phase.Experimental Design;Statistical Methods;Regression Analysis;Risk Analysis;Least Squares;Sensitivity Analysis;Optimization;Perturbation;statistics